A Prediction Model for Prediabetes Risk in Middle-Aged and Elderly Populations: A Prospective Cohort Study in China

Background. To investigate indicators for prediabetes risk and construct a prediction model for prediabetes incidences in China. Methods. In this study, 551 adults aged 40–70 years had normal glucose tolerance (NGT) and normal hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) levels at baseline. Baseline data including demogr...

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Autores principales:	Jiahua Wu, Jiaqiang Zhou, Xueyao Yin, Yixin Chen, Xihua Lin, Zhiye Xu, Hong Li
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Hindawi Limited 2021
Materias:	Diseases of the endocrine glands. Clinical endocrinology RC648-665
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/5271e1a426d1404db8120b776d1ce27d
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:5271e1a426d1404db8120b776d1ce27d2021-11-22T01:10:19ZA Prediction Model for Prediabetes Risk in Middle-Aged and Elderly Populations: A Prospective Cohort Study in China1687-834510.1155/2021/2520806https://doaj.org/article/5271e1a426d1404db8120b776d1ce27d2021-01-01T00:00:00Zhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2021/2520806https://doaj.org/toc/1687-8345Background. To investigate indicators for prediabetes risk and construct a prediction model for prediabetes incidences in China. Methods. In this study, 551 adults aged 40–70 years had normal glucose tolerance (NGT) and normal hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) levels at baseline. Baseline data including demographic information, anthropometric measurements, and metabolic profile measurements were collected. The associations between possible indicators and prediabetes were assessed by the Cox proportional-hazards model. The predictive values were evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC). Results. During an average of 3.35 years of follow-up, the incidence of prediabetes was found to be 19.96% (n = 110). In the univariate analyses, fasting plasma glucose (FPG), fasting serum insulin (FINS), 2 h plasma glucose (2hPG), HbA1c, serum uric acid (SUA), waist circumference (WC), smoking, and family history of diabetes (FHD) were found to be significantly correlated with prediabetes. In the multivariable analyses, WC (hazard ratio (HR): 1.032; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.010, 1.053; p=0.003), FHD (HR: 1.824; 95% CI: 1.250, 2.661; p=0.002), HbA1c (HR: 1.825; 95% CI: 1.227, 2.714; p=0.003), and FPG (HR: 2.284; 95% CI: 1.556, 3.352; p<0.001) were found to be independent risk factors for prediabetes. A model that encompassed WC, FHD, HbA1c, and FPG for predicting prediabetes exhibited the largest discriminative ability (AUC: 0.702). Conclusions. WC, FHD, HbA1c, and FPG are independently correlated with the risk of prediabetes. Furthermore, the combination of these predictors enhances the predictive accuracy of prediabetes.Jiahua WuJiaqiang ZhouXueyao YinYixin ChenXihua LinZhiye XuHong LiHindawi LimitedarticleDiseases of the endocrine glands. Clinical endocrinologyRC648-665ENInternational Journal of Endocrinology, Vol 2021 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Diseases of the endocrine glands. Clinical endocrinology RC648-665
spellingShingle	Diseases of the endocrine glands. Clinical endocrinology RC648-665 Jiahua Wu Jiaqiang Zhou Xueyao Yin Yixin Chen Xihua Lin Zhiye Xu Hong Li A Prediction Model for Prediabetes Risk in Middle-Aged and Elderly Populations: A Prospective Cohort Study in China
description	Background. To investigate indicators for prediabetes risk and construct a prediction model for prediabetes incidences in China. Methods. In this study, 551 adults aged 40–70 years had normal glucose tolerance (NGT) and normal hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) levels at baseline. Baseline data including demographic information, anthropometric measurements, and metabolic profile measurements were collected. The associations between possible indicators and prediabetes were assessed by the Cox proportional-hazards model. The predictive values were evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC). Results. During an average of 3.35 years of follow-up, the incidence of prediabetes was found to be 19.96% (n = 110). In the univariate analyses, fasting plasma glucose (FPG), fasting serum insulin (FINS), 2 h plasma glucose (2hPG), HbA1c, serum uric acid (SUA), waist circumference (WC), smoking, and family history of diabetes (FHD) were found to be significantly correlated with prediabetes. In the multivariable analyses, WC (hazard ratio (HR): 1.032; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.010, 1.053; p=0.003), FHD (HR: 1.824; 95% CI: 1.250, 2.661; p=0.002), HbA1c (HR: 1.825; 95% CI: 1.227, 2.714; p=0.003), and FPG (HR: 2.284; 95% CI: 1.556, 3.352; p<0.001) were found to be independent risk factors for prediabetes. A model that encompassed WC, FHD, HbA1c, and FPG for predicting prediabetes exhibited the largest discriminative ability (AUC: 0.702). Conclusions. WC, FHD, HbA1c, and FPG are independently correlated with the risk of prediabetes. Furthermore, the combination of these predictors enhances the predictive accuracy of prediabetes.
format	article
author	Jiahua Wu Jiaqiang Zhou Xueyao Yin Yixin Chen Xihua Lin Zhiye Xu Hong Li
author_facet	Jiahua Wu Jiaqiang Zhou Xueyao Yin Yixin Chen Xihua Lin Zhiye Xu Hong Li
author_sort	Jiahua Wu
title	A Prediction Model for Prediabetes Risk in Middle-Aged and Elderly Populations: A Prospective Cohort Study in China
title_short	A Prediction Model for Prediabetes Risk in Middle-Aged and Elderly Populations: A Prospective Cohort Study in China
title_full	A Prediction Model for Prediabetes Risk in Middle-Aged and Elderly Populations: A Prospective Cohort Study in China
title_fullStr	A Prediction Model for Prediabetes Risk in Middle-Aged and Elderly Populations: A Prospective Cohort Study in China
title_full_unstemmed	A Prediction Model for Prediabetes Risk in Middle-Aged and Elderly Populations: A Prospective Cohort Study in China
title_sort	prediction model for prediabetes risk in middle-aged and elderly populations: a prospective cohort study in china
publisher	Hindawi Limited
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/5271e1a426d1404db8120b776d1ce27d
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A Prediction Model for Prediabetes Risk in Middle-Aged and Elderly Populations: A Prospective Cohort Study in China

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