Optimal water allocation of the Zayandeh-Roud Reservoir in Iran based on inflow projection under climate change scenarios

The impact of climate change on water availability has become a significant cause for concern in the Zayandeh-Roud Reservoir in Iran and similar reservoirs in arid regions. This study investigates the climate change impact on water supply and availability in the Zayandeh-Roud River Basin. For better...

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Autores principales:	Fatemeh Saedi, Azadeh Ahmadi, Karim C. Abbaspour
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	IWA Publishing 2021
Materias:	general circulation models reservoir performance index sufi-2 swat Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/529ecfee764640d7a0f5e318d773866e
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:529ecfee764640d7a0f5e318d773866e2021-11-05T19:02:26ZOptimal water allocation of the Zayandeh-Roud Reservoir in Iran based on inflow projection under climate change scenarios2040-22442408-935410.2166/wcc.2021.219https://doaj.org/article/529ecfee764640d7a0f5e318d773866e2021-08-01T00:00:00Zhttp://jwcc.iwaponline.com/content/12/5/2068https://doaj.org/toc/2040-2244https://doaj.org/toc/2408-9354The impact of climate change on water availability has become a significant cause for concern in the Zayandeh-Roud Reservoir in Iran and similar reservoirs in arid regions. This study investigates the climate change impact on water supply and availability in the Zayandeh-Roud River Basin. For better management, the Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to develop a hydrologic model of the basin. The model was then calibrated and validated for two upstream stations using the Sequential Uncertainty Fitting (SUFI-2) algorithm in the SWAT-CUP software. The impact of climate change was modeled by using data derived from five Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project general circulation models under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). For calibration (1991–2008), the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) values of 0.75 and 0.61 at the Ghaleshahrokh and Eskandari stations were obtained, respectively. For validation (2009–2015), the NSE values were 0.80 and 0.82, respectively. The reservoir inflow would probably reduce by 40–50% during the period of 2020–2045 relative to the base period of 1981–2006. To evaluate the reservoir's future performance, a nonlinear optimization model was used to minimize water deficits. The highest annual water deficit would likely be around 847 MCM. The lowest reservoir reliability and the highest vulnerability occurred under the extreme RCP8.5 pathway. HIGHLIGHTS The Soil & Water Assessment Tool model was used to simulate an arid watershed in Iran.; The reservoir inflow will probably reduce significantly under climate change scenarios.; The reservoir will be vulnerable and unreliable in supplying water in the future.; The highest annual water deficit of 847 MCM is expected under the extreme climate change scenario.;Fatemeh SaediAzadeh AhmadiKarim C. AbbaspourIWA Publishingarticlegeneral circulation modelsreservoir performance indexsufi-2swatEnvironmental technology. Sanitary engineeringTD1-1066Environmental sciencesGE1-350ENJournal of Water and Climate Change, Vol 12, Iss 5, Pp 2068-2081 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	general circulation models reservoir performance index sufi-2 swat Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350
spellingShingle	general circulation models reservoir performance index sufi-2 swat Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Fatemeh Saedi Azadeh Ahmadi Karim C. Abbaspour Optimal water allocation of the Zayandeh-Roud Reservoir in Iran based on inflow projection under climate change scenarios
description	The impact of climate change on water availability has become a significant cause for concern in the Zayandeh-Roud Reservoir in Iran and similar reservoirs in arid regions. This study investigates the climate change impact on water supply and availability in the Zayandeh-Roud River Basin. For better management, the Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to develop a hydrologic model of the basin. The model was then calibrated and validated for two upstream stations using the Sequential Uncertainty Fitting (SUFI-2) algorithm in the SWAT-CUP software. The impact of climate change was modeled by using data derived from five Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project general circulation models under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). For calibration (1991–2008), the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) values of 0.75 and 0.61 at the Ghaleshahrokh and Eskandari stations were obtained, respectively. For validation (2009–2015), the NSE values were 0.80 and 0.82, respectively. The reservoir inflow would probably reduce by 40–50% during the period of 2020–2045 relative to the base period of 1981–2006. To evaluate the reservoir's future performance, a nonlinear optimization model was used to minimize water deficits. The highest annual water deficit would likely be around 847 MCM. The lowest reservoir reliability and the highest vulnerability occurred under the extreme RCP8.5 pathway. HIGHLIGHTS The Soil & Water Assessment Tool model was used to simulate an arid watershed in Iran.; The reservoir inflow will probably reduce significantly under climate change scenarios.; The reservoir will be vulnerable and unreliable in supplying water in the future.; The highest annual water deficit of 847 MCM is expected under the extreme climate change scenario.;
format	article
author	Fatemeh Saedi Azadeh Ahmadi Karim C. Abbaspour
author_facet	Fatemeh Saedi Azadeh Ahmadi Karim C. Abbaspour
author_sort	Fatemeh Saedi
title	Optimal water allocation of the Zayandeh-Roud Reservoir in Iran based on inflow projection under climate change scenarios
title_short	Optimal water allocation of the Zayandeh-Roud Reservoir in Iran based on inflow projection under climate change scenarios
title_full	Optimal water allocation of the Zayandeh-Roud Reservoir in Iran based on inflow projection under climate change scenarios
title_fullStr	Optimal water allocation of the Zayandeh-Roud Reservoir in Iran based on inflow projection under climate change scenarios
title_full_unstemmed	Optimal water allocation of the Zayandeh-Roud Reservoir in Iran based on inflow projection under climate change scenarios
title_sort	optimal water allocation of the zayandeh-roud reservoir in iran based on inflow projection under climate change scenarios
publisher	IWA Publishing
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/529ecfee764640d7a0f5e318d773866e
work_keys_str_mv	AT fatemehsaedi optimalwaterallocationofthezayandehroudreservoiriniranbasedoninflowprojectionunderclimatechangescenarios AT azadehahmadi optimalwaterallocationofthezayandehroudreservoiriniranbasedoninflowprojectionunderclimatechangescenarios AT karimcabbaspour optimalwaterallocationofthezayandehroudreservoiriniranbasedoninflowprojectionunderclimatechangescenarios
_version_	1718444038105858048

Optimal water allocation of the Zayandeh-Roud Reservoir in Iran based on inflow projection under climate change scenarios

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