The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Global Value Chain of the Manufacturing Industry

This paper adopts the GDYN model to estimate the dynamic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on global manufacturing industry and the value chain. Our simulation finds that (1) In the short run, the low-tech manufacturing industries will suffer greater shocks, with a decline of output growth in 2021 by...

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Autores principales:	Jiaze Sun, Huijuan Lee, Jun Yang
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	MDPI AG 2021
Materias:	global value chain manufacturing COVID-19 global trade analysis project Environmental effects of industries and plants TD194-195 Renewable energy sources TJ807-830 Environmental sciences GE1-350
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/52dcbffaf89f45abbc522a1a0db0841b
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:52dcbffaf89f45abbc522a1a0db0841b2021-11-25T19:00:29ZThe Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Global Value Chain of the Manufacturing Industry10.3390/su1322123702071-1050https://doaj.org/article/52dcbffaf89f45abbc522a1a0db0841b2021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/22/12370https://doaj.org/toc/2071-1050This paper adopts the GDYN model to estimate the dynamic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on global manufacturing industry and the value chain. Our simulation finds that (1) In the short run, the low-tech manufacturing industries will suffer greater shocks, with a decline of output growth in 2021 by 6.0%. The growth rate of the high-tech manufacturing industry showed an increasing trend of 3.7% in 2021. (2) In the post-epidemic period, the total manufacturing output will return to the baseline level, from which the growth rate of low-tech manufacturing will rebound, demonstrating a V-shaped development trajectory. (3) From the perspective of Global Value Chain (GVC), the participation in GVCs of manufacturers in countries along the Belt and Road, the European Union and the United States will weaken, while China’s manufacturing industry has witnessed an obvious improvement in export competitiveness. The import added value of China has decreased, which shows that its ability to meet domestic demand has been improving. This indicates that the COVID-19 pandemic is providing a crucial opportunity for China to upgrade its manufacturing value chain, which contributes to the accelerated construction of a new dual-cycle development pattern.Jiaze SunHuijuan LeeJun YangMDPI AGarticleglobal value chainmanufacturingCOVID-19global trade analysis projectEnvironmental effects of industries and plantsTD194-195Renewable energy sourcesTJ807-830Environmental sciencesGE1-350ENSustainability, Vol 13, Iss 12370, p 12370 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	global value chain manufacturing COVID-19 global trade analysis project Environmental effects of industries and plants TD194-195 Renewable energy sources TJ807-830 Environmental sciences GE1-350
spellingShingle	global value chain manufacturing COVID-19 global trade analysis project Environmental effects of industries and plants TD194-195 Renewable energy sources TJ807-830 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Jiaze Sun Huijuan Lee Jun Yang The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Global Value Chain of the Manufacturing Industry
description	This paper adopts the GDYN model to estimate the dynamic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on global manufacturing industry and the value chain. Our simulation finds that (1) In the short run, the low-tech manufacturing industries will suffer greater shocks, with a decline of output growth in 2021 by 6.0%. The growth rate of the high-tech manufacturing industry showed an increasing trend of 3.7% in 2021. (2) In the post-epidemic period, the total manufacturing output will return to the baseline level, from which the growth rate of low-tech manufacturing will rebound, demonstrating a V-shaped development trajectory. (3) From the perspective of Global Value Chain (GVC), the participation in GVCs of manufacturers in countries along the Belt and Road, the European Union and the United States will weaken, while China’s manufacturing industry has witnessed an obvious improvement in export competitiveness. The import added value of China has decreased, which shows that its ability to meet domestic demand has been improving. This indicates that the COVID-19 pandemic is providing a crucial opportunity for China to upgrade its manufacturing value chain, which contributes to the accelerated construction of a new dual-cycle development pattern.
format	article
author	Jiaze Sun Huijuan Lee Jun Yang
author_facet	Jiaze Sun Huijuan Lee Jun Yang
author_sort	Jiaze Sun
title	The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Global Value Chain of the Manufacturing Industry
title_short	The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Global Value Chain of the Manufacturing Industry
title_full	The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Global Value Chain of the Manufacturing Industry
title_fullStr	The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Global Value Chain of the Manufacturing Industry
title_full_unstemmed	The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Global Value Chain of the Manufacturing Industry
title_sort	impact of the covid-19 pandemic on the global value chain of the manufacturing industry
publisher	MDPI AG
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/52dcbffaf89f45abbc522a1a0db0841b
work_keys_str_mv	AT jiazesun theimpactofthecovid19pandemicontheglobalvaluechainofthemanufacturingindustry AT huijuanlee theimpactofthecovid19pandemicontheglobalvaluechainofthemanufacturingindustry AT junyang theimpactofthecovid19pandemicontheglobalvaluechainofthemanufacturingindustry AT jiazesun impactofthecovid19pandemicontheglobalvaluechainofthemanufacturingindustry AT huijuanlee impactofthecovid19pandemicontheglobalvaluechainofthemanufacturingindustry AT junyang impactofthecovid19pandemicontheglobalvaluechainofthemanufacturingindustry
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The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Global Value Chain of the Manufacturing Industry

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