Estimating Economic Losses Caused by COVID-19 under Multiple Control Measure Scenarios with a Coupled Infectious Disease—Economic Model: A Case Study in Wuhan, China
Background: The outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic has caused an unprecedented public health crisis and drastically impacted the economy. The relationship between different control measures and economic losses becomes a research hotspot. Methods: In this study, the SEIR infectious disease model was r...
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| Auteurs principaux: | , , , |
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| Format: | article |
| Langue: | EN |
| Publié: |
MDPI AG
2021
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| Accès en ligne: | https://doaj.org/article/53384a0393744b10ac6c0c7bd9f699e6 |
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| Résumé: | Background: The outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic has caused an unprecedented public health crisis and drastically impacted the economy. The relationship between different control measures and economic losses becomes a research hotspot. Methods: In this study, the SEIR infectious disease model was revised and coupled with an economic model to quantify this nonlinear relationship in Wuhan. The control measures were parameterized into two factors: the effective number of daily contacts (people) (<i>r</i>); the average waiting time for quarantined patients (day) (<i>g</i>). Results: The parameter <i>r</i> has a threshold value that if r is less than 5 (people), the number of COVID-19 infected patients is very close to 0. A “central valley” around <i>r</i> = 5~6 can be observed, indicating an optimal control measure to reduce economic losses. A lower value of parameter g is beneficial to stop COVID-19 spread with a lower economic cost. Conclusion: The simulation results demonstrate that implementing strict control measures as early as possible can stop the spread of COVID-19 with a minimal economic impact. The quantitative assessment method in this study can be applied in other COVID-19 pandemic areas or countries. |
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