Estimating Economic Losses Caused by COVID-19 under Multiple Control Measure Scenarios with a Coupled Infectious Disease—Economic Model: A Case Study in Wuhan, China

Background: The outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic has caused an unprecedented public health crisis and drastically impacted the economy. The relationship between different control measures and economic losses becomes a research hotspot. Methods: In this study, the SEIR infectious disease model was r...

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Autores principales:	Xingtian Chen, Wei Gong, Xiaoxu Wu, Wenwu Zhao
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	MDPI AG 2021
Materias:	COVID-19 infectious diseases model control measures economic losses Medicine R
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/53384a0393744b10ac6c0c7bd9f699e6
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:53384a0393744b10ac6c0c7bd9f699e62021-11-25T17:47:59ZEstimating Economic Losses Caused by COVID-19 under Multiple Control Measure Scenarios with a Coupled Infectious Disease—Economic Model: A Case Study in Wuhan, China10.3390/ijerph1822117531660-46011661-7827https://doaj.org/article/53384a0393744b10ac6c0c7bd9f699e62021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/18/22/11753https://doaj.org/toc/1661-7827https://doaj.org/toc/1660-4601Background: The outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic has caused an unprecedented public health crisis and drastically impacted the economy. The relationship between different control measures and economic losses becomes a research hotspot. Methods: In this study, the SEIR infectious disease model was revised and coupled with an economic model to quantify this nonlinear relationship in Wuhan. The control measures were parameterized into two factors: the effective number of daily contacts (people) (<i>r</i>); the average waiting time for quarantined patients (day) (<i>g</i>). Results: The parameter <i>r</i> has a threshold value that if r is less than 5 (people), the number of COVID-19 infected patients is very close to 0. A “central valley” around <i>r</i> = 5~6 can be observed, indicating an optimal control measure to reduce economic losses. A lower value of parameter g is beneficial to stop COVID-19 spread with a lower economic cost. Conclusion: The simulation results demonstrate that implementing strict control measures as early as possible can stop the spread of COVID-19 with a minimal economic impact. The quantitative assessment method in this study can be applied in other COVID-19 pandemic areas or countries.Xingtian ChenWei GongXiaoxu WuWenwu ZhaoMDPI AGarticleCOVID-19infectious diseases modelcontrol measureseconomic lossesMedicineRENInternational Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, Vol 18, Iss 11753, p 11753 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	COVID-19 infectious diseases model control measures economic losses Medicine R
spellingShingle	COVID-19 infectious diseases model control measures economic losses Medicine R Xingtian Chen Wei Gong Xiaoxu Wu Wenwu Zhao Estimating Economic Losses Caused by COVID-19 under Multiple Control Measure Scenarios with a Coupled Infectious Disease—Economic Model: A Case Study in Wuhan, China
description	Background: The outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic has caused an unprecedented public health crisis and drastically impacted the economy. The relationship between different control measures and economic losses becomes a research hotspot. Methods: In this study, the SEIR infectious disease model was revised and coupled with an economic model to quantify this nonlinear relationship in Wuhan. The control measures were parameterized into two factors: the effective number of daily contacts (people) (<i>r</i>); the average waiting time for quarantined patients (day) (<i>g</i>). Results: The parameter <i>r</i> has a threshold value that if r is less than 5 (people), the number of COVID-19 infected patients is very close to 0. A “central valley” around <i>r</i> = 5~6 can be observed, indicating an optimal control measure to reduce economic losses. A lower value of parameter g is beneficial to stop COVID-19 spread with a lower economic cost. Conclusion: The simulation results demonstrate that implementing strict control measures as early as possible can stop the spread of COVID-19 with a minimal economic impact. The quantitative assessment method in this study can be applied in other COVID-19 pandemic areas or countries.
format	article
author	Xingtian Chen Wei Gong Xiaoxu Wu Wenwu Zhao
author_facet	Xingtian Chen Wei Gong Xiaoxu Wu Wenwu Zhao
author_sort	Xingtian Chen
title	Estimating Economic Losses Caused by COVID-19 under Multiple Control Measure Scenarios with a Coupled Infectious Disease—Economic Model: A Case Study in Wuhan, China
title_short	Estimating Economic Losses Caused by COVID-19 under Multiple Control Measure Scenarios with a Coupled Infectious Disease—Economic Model: A Case Study in Wuhan, China
title_full	Estimating Economic Losses Caused by COVID-19 under Multiple Control Measure Scenarios with a Coupled Infectious Disease—Economic Model: A Case Study in Wuhan, China
title_fullStr	Estimating Economic Losses Caused by COVID-19 under Multiple Control Measure Scenarios with a Coupled Infectious Disease—Economic Model: A Case Study in Wuhan, China
title_full_unstemmed	Estimating Economic Losses Caused by COVID-19 under Multiple Control Measure Scenarios with a Coupled Infectious Disease—Economic Model: A Case Study in Wuhan, China
title_sort	estimating economic losses caused by covid-19 under multiple control measure scenarios with a coupled infectious disease—economic model: a case study in wuhan, china
publisher	MDPI AG
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/53384a0393744b10ac6c0c7bd9f699e6
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_version_	1718411984489152512

Estimating Economic Losses Caused by COVID-19 under Multiple Control Measure Scenarios with a Coupled Infectious Disease—Economic Model: A Case Study in Wuhan, China

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