Global climatology and trends in convective environments from ERA5 and rawinsonde data

Abstract Globally, thunderstorms are responsible for a significant fraction of rainfall, and in the mid-latitudes often produce extreme weather, including large hail, tornadoes and damaging winds. Despite this importance, how the global frequency of thunderstorms and their accompanying hazards has c...

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Autores principales:	Mateusz Taszarek, John T. Allen, Mattia Marchio, Harold E. Brooks
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/533e47ed830a4f35904880116465ff14
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:533e47ed830a4f35904880116465ff142021-12-02T17:52:28ZGlobal climatology and trends in convective environments from ERA5 and rawinsonde data10.1038/s41612-021-00190-x2397-3722https://doaj.org/article/533e47ed830a4f35904880116465ff142021-06-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-021-00190-xhttps://doaj.org/toc/2397-3722Abstract Globally, thunderstorms are responsible for a significant fraction of rainfall, and in the mid-latitudes often produce extreme weather, including large hail, tornadoes and damaging winds. Despite this importance, how the global frequency of thunderstorms and their accompanying hazards has changed over the past 4 decades remains unclear. Large-scale diagnostics applied to global climate models have suggested that the frequency of thunderstorms and their intensity is likely to increase in the future. Here, we show that according to ERA5 convective available potential energy (CAPE) and convective precipitation (CP) have decreased over the tropics and subtropics with simultaneous increases in 0–6 km wind shear (BS06). Conversely, rawinsonde observations paint a different picture across the mid-latitudes with increasing CAPE and significant decreases to BS06. Differing trends and disagreement between ERA5 and rawinsondes observed over some regions suggest that results should be interpreted with caution, especially for CAPE and CP across tropics where uncertainty is the highest and reliable long-term rawinsonde observations are missing.Mateusz TaszarekJohn T. AllenMattia MarchioHarold E. BrooksNature PortfolioarticleEnvironmental sciencesGE1-350Meteorology. ClimatologyQC851-999ENnpj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Vol 4, Iss 1, Pp 1-11 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999
spellingShingle	Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Mateusz Taszarek John T. Allen Mattia Marchio Harold E. Brooks Global climatology and trends in convective environments from ERA5 and rawinsonde data
description	Abstract Globally, thunderstorms are responsible for a significant fraction of rainfall, and in the mid-latitudes often produce extreme weather, including large hail, tornadoes and damaging winds. Despite this importance, how the global frequency of thunderstorms and their accompanying hazards has changed over the past 4 decades remains unclear. Large-scale diagnostics applied to global climate models have suggested that the frequency of thunderstorms and their intensity is likely to increase in the future. Here, we show that according to ERA5 convective available potential energy (CAPE) and convective precipitation (CP) have decreased over the tropics and subtropics with simultaneous increases in 0–6 km wind shear (BS06). Conversely, rawinsonde observations paint a different picture across the mid-latitudes with increasing CAPE and significant decreases to BS06. Differing trends and disagreement between ERA5 and rawinsondes observed over some regions suggest that results should be interpreted with caution, especially for CAPE and CP across tropics where uncertainty is the highest and reliable long-term rawinsonde observations are missing.
format	article
author	Mateusz Taszarek John T. Allen Mattia Marchio Harold E. Brooks
author_facet	Mateusz Taszarek John T. Allen Mattia Marchio Harold E. Brooks
author_sort	Mateusz Taszarek
title	Global climatology and trends in convective environments from ERA5 and rawinsonde data
title_short	Global climatology and trends in convective environments from ERA5 and rawinsonde data
title_full	Global climatology and trends in convective environments from ERA5 and rawinsonde data
title_fullStr	Global climatology and trends in convective environments from ERA5 and rawinsonde data
title_full_unstemmed	Global climatology and trends in convective environments from ERA5 and rawinsonde data
title_sort	global climatology and trends in convective environments from era5 and rawinsonde data
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/533e47ed830a4f35904880116465ff14
work_keys_str_mv	AT mateusztaszarek globalclimatologyandtrendsinconvectiveenvironmentsfromera5andrawinsondedata AT johntallen globalclimatologyandtrendsinconvectiveenvironmentsfromera5andrawinsondedata AT mattiamarchio globalclimatologyandtrendsinconvectiveenvironmentsfromera5andrawinsondedata AT haroldebrooks globalclimatologyandtrendsinconvectiveenvironmentsfromera5andrawinsondedata
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Global climatology and trends in convective environments from ERA5 and rawinsonde data

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