Decadal climate predictions with the Canadian Earth System Model version 5 (CanESM5)

<p>The Canadian Earth System Model version 5 (CanESM5) developed at Environment and Climate Change Canada's Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) is participating in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). A 40-member ensemble of CanESM5 retrospe...

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Autores principales:	R. Sospedra-Alfonso, W. J. Merryfield, G. J. Boer, V. V. Kharin, W.-S. Lee, C. Seiler, J. R. Christian
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Copernicus Publications 2021
Materias:	Geology QE1-996.5
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/5443c824c96048488175cdafad752814
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:5443c824c96048488175cdafad7528142021-11-12T08:58:12ZDecadal climate predictions with the Canadian Earth System Model version 5 (CanESM5)10.5194/gmd-14-6863-20211991-959X1991-9603https://doaj.org/article/5443c824c96048488175cdafad7528142021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/14/6863/2021/gmd-14-6863-2021.pdfhttps://doaj.org/toc/1991-959Xhttps://doaj.org/toc/1991-9603<p>The Canadian Earth System Model version 5 (CanESM5) developed at Environment and Climate Change Canada's Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) is participating in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). A 40-member ensemble of CanESM5 retrospective decadal forecasts (or hindcasts) is integrated for 10 years from realistic initial states once a year during 1961 to the present using prescribed external forcing. The results are part of CCCma's contribution to the Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) component of CMIP6. This paper evaluates CanESM5 large ensemble decadal hindcasts against observational benchmarks and against historical climate simulations initialized from pre-industrial control run states. The focus is on the evaluation of the potential predictability and actual skill of annual and multi-year averages of key oceanic and atmospheric fields at regional and global scales. The impact of initialization on prediction skill is quantified from the hindcasts decomposition into uninitialized and initialized components. The dependence of potential and actual skill on ensemble size is examined. CanESM5 decadal hindcasts skillfully predict upper-ocean states and surface climate with a significant impact from initialization that depend on climate variable, forecast range, and geographic location. Deficiencies in the skill of North Atlantic surface climate are identified and potential causes discussed. The inclusion of biogeochemical modules in CanESM5 enables the prediction of carbon cycle variables which are shown to be potentially skillful on decadal timescales, with a strong long-lasting impact from initialization on skill in the ocean and a moderate short-lived impact on land.</p>R. Sospedra-AlfonsoW. J. MerryfieldG. J. BoerV. V. KharinW.-S. LeeC. SeilerJ. R. ChristianCopernicus PublicationsarticleGeologyQE1-996.5ENGeoscientific Model Development, Vol 14, Pp 6863-6891 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Geology QE1-996.5
spellingShingle	Geology QE1-996.5 R. Sospedra-Alfonso W. J. Merryfield G. J. Boer V. V. Kharin W.-S. Lee C. Seiler J. R. Christian Decadal climate predictions with the Canadian Earth System Model version 5 (CanESM5)
description	<p>The Canadian Earth System Model version 5 (CanESM5) developed at Environment and Climate Change Canada's Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) is participating in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). A 40-member ensemble of CanESM5 retrospective decadal forecasts (or hindcasts) is integrated for 10 years from realistic initial states once a year during 1961 to the present using prescribed external forcing. The results are part of CCCma's contribution to the Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) component of CMIP6. This paper evaluates CanESM5 large ensemble decadal hindcasts against observational benchmarks and against historical climate simulations initialized from pre-industrial control run states. The focus is on the evaluation of the potential predictability and actual skill of annual and multi-year averages of key oceanic and atmospheric fields at regional and global scales. The impact of initialization on prediction skill is quantified from the hindcasts decomposition into uninitialized and initialized components. The dependence of potential and actual skill on ensemble size is examined. CanESM5 decadal hindcasts skillfully predict upper-ocean states and surface climate with a significant impact from initialization that depend on climate variable, forecast range, and geographic location. Deficiencies in the skill of North Atlantic surface climate are identified and potential causes discussed. The inclusion of biogeochemical modules in CanESM5 enables the prediction of carbon cycle variables which are shown to be potentially skillful on decadal timescales, with a strong long-lasting impact from initialization on skill in the ocean and a moderate short-lived impact on land.</p>
format	article
author	R. Sospedra-Alfonso W. J. Merryfield G. J. Boer V. V. Kharin W.-S. Lee C. Seiler J. R. Christian
author_facet	R. Sospedra-Alfonso W. J. Merryfield G. J. Boer V. V. Kharin W.-S. Lee C. Seiler J. R. Christian
author_sort	R. Sospedra-Alfonso
title	Decadal climate predictions with the Canadian Earth System Model version 5 (CanESM5)
title_short	Decadal climate predictions with the Canadian Earth System Model version 5 (CanESM5)
title_full	Decadal climate predictions with the Canadian Earth System Model version 5 (CanESM5)
title_fullStr	Decadal climate predictions with the Canadian Earth System Model version 5 (CanESM5)
title_full_unstemmed	Decadal climate predictions with the Canadian Earth System Model version 5 (CanESM5)
title_sort	decadal climate predictions with the canadian earth system model version 5 (canesm5)
publisher	Copernicus Publications
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/5443c824c96048488175cdafad752814
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Decadal climate predictions with the Canadian Earth System Model version 5 (CanESM5)

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