Social heterogeneity and the COVID-19 lockdown in a multi-group SEIR model

The goal of the lockdown is to mitigate and if possible prevent the spread of an epidemic. It consists in reducing social interactions. This is taken into account by the introduction of a factor of reduction of social interactions q, and by decreasing the transmission coefficient of the disease acco...

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Autores principales:	Dolbeault Jean, Turinici Gabriel
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	De Gruyter 2021
Materias:	epidemic models disease control heterogeneous populations basic reproduction ratio equilibrium solutions primary: 92c60 secondary: 92d30, 34c60 Biotechnology TP248.13-248.65 Physics QC1-999
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/546e5da8e3614530ae7770150b114bf2
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:546e5da8e3614530ae7770150b114bf22021-12-05T14:10:44ZSocial heterogeneity and the COVID-19 lockdown in a multi-group SEIR model2544-729710.1515/cmb-2020-0115https://doaj.org/article/546e5da8e3614530ae7770150b114bf22021-03-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1515/cmb-2020-0115https://doaj.org/toc/2544-7297The goal of the lockdown is to mitigate and if possible prevent the spread of an epidemic. It consists in reducing social interactions. This is taken into account by the introduction of a factor of reduction of social interactions q, and by decreasing the transmission coefficient of the disease accordingly. Evaluating q is a difficult question and one can ask if it makes sense to compute an average coefficient q for a given population, in order to make predictions on the basic reproduction rate ℛ0, the dynamics of the epidemic or the fraction of the population that will have been infected by the end of the epidemic. On a very simple example, we show that the computation of ℛ0 in a heterogeneous population is not reduced to the computation of an average q but rather to the direct computation of an average coefficient ℛ0. Even more interesting is the fact that, in a range of data compatible with the Covid-19 outbreak, the size of the epidemic is deeply modified by social heterogeneity, as is the height of the epidemic peak, while the date at which it is reached mainly depends on the average ℛ0 coefficient. This paper illustrates more technical results that can be found in [4], with new numerical computations. It is intended to draw the attention on the role of heterogeneities in a population in a very simple case, which might be difficult to apprehend in more realistic but also more complex models.Dolbeault JeanTurinici GabrielDe Gruyterarticleepidemic modelsdisease controlheterogeneous populationsbasic reproduction ratioequilibrium solutionsprimary: 92c60secondary: 92d30, 34c60BiotechnologyTP248.13-248.65PhysicsQC1-999ENComputational and Mathematical Biophysics, Vol 9, Iss 1, Pp 14-21 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	epidemic models disease control heterogeneous populations basic reproduction ratio equilibrium solutions primary: 92c60 secondary: 92d30, 34c60 Biotechnology TP248.13-248.65 Physics QC1-999
spellingShingle	epidemic models disease control heterogeneous populations basic reproduction ratio equilibrium solutions primary: 92c60 secondary: 92d30, 34c60 Biotechnology TP248.13-248.65 Physics QC1-999 Dolbeault Jean Turinici Gabriel Social heterogeneity and the COVID-19 lockdown in a multi-group SEIR model
description	The goal of the lockdown is to mitigate and if possible prevent the spread of an epidemic. It consists in reducing social interactions. This is taken into account by the introduction of a factor of reduction of social interactions q, and by decreasing the transmission coefficient of the disease accordingly. Evaluating q is a difficult question and one can ask if it makes sense to compute an average coefficient q for a given population, in order to make predictions on the basic reproduction rate ℛ0, the dynamics of the epidemic or the fraction of the population that will have been infected by the end of the epidemic. On a very simple example, we show that the computation of ℛ0 in a heterogeneous population is not reduced to the computation of an average q but rather to the direct computation of an average coefficient ℛ0. Even more interesting is the fact that, in a range of data compatible with the Covid-19 outbreak, the size of the epidemic is deeply modified by social heterogeneity, as is the height of the epidemic peak, while the date at which it is reached mainly depends on the average ℛ0 coefficient. This paper illustrates more technical results that can be found in [4], with new numerical computations. It is intended to draw the attention on the role of heterogeneities in a population in a very simple case, which might be difficult to apprehend in more realistic but also more complex models.
format	article
author	Dolbeault Jean Turinici Gabriel
author_facet	Dolbeault Jean Turinici Gabriel
author_sort	Dolbeault Jean
title	Social heterogeneity and the COVID-19 lockdown in a multi-group SEIR model
title_short	Social heterogeneity and the COVID-19 lockdown in a multi-group SEIR model
title_full	Social heterogeneity and the COVID-19 lockdown in a multi-group SEIR model
title_fullStr	Social heterogeneity and the COVID-19 lockdown in a multi-group SEIR model
title_full_unstemmed	Social heterogeneity and the COVID-19 lockdown in a multi-group SEIR model
title_sort	social heterogeneity and the covid-19 lockdown in a multi-group seir model
publisher	De Gruyter
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/546e5da8e3614530ae7770150b114bf2
work_keys_str_mv	AT dolbeaultjean socialheterogeneityandthecovid19lockdowninamultigroupseirmodel AT turinicigabriel socialheterogeneityandthecovid19lockdowninamultigroupseirmodel
_version_	1718371786607820800

Social heterogeneity and the COVID-19 lockdown in a multi-group SEIR model

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