African Swine Fever Re-Emerging in Estonia: The Role of Seropositive Wild Boar from an Epidemiological Perspective

African swine fever (ASF) emerged in Estonia in 2014. From February 2019 to August 2020, no pigs or wild boar tested positive for ASF virus (ASFV), only ASFV-specific antibodies could be detected in shot wild boar. However, ASF recently re-emerged in wild boar. We tested three hypotheses that might...

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Autores principales:	Katja Schulz, Jana Schulz, Christoph Staubach, Sandra Blome, Imbi Nurmoja, Franz J. Conraths, Carola Sauter-Louis, Arvo Viltrop
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	MDPI AG 2021
Materias:	African swine fever Estonia ASFV-carrier confidence in freedom detection probability sensitivity of surveillance Microbiology QR1-502
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/548dc080e2e74eb5ad614a7876df4f50
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:548dc080e2e74eb5ad614a7876df4f502021-11-25T19:12:25ZAfrican Swine Fever Re-Emerging in Estonia: The Role of Seropositive Wild Boar from an Epidemiological Perspective10.3390/v131121211999-4915https://doaj.org/article/548dc080e2e74eb5ad614a7876df4f502021-10-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.mdpi.com/1999-4915/13/11/2121https://doaj.org/toc/1999-4915African swine fever (ASF) emerged in Estonia in 2014. From February 2019 to August 2020, no pigs or wild boar tested positive for ASF virus (ASFV), only ASFV-specific antibodies could be detected in shot wild boar. However, ASF recently re-emerged in wild boar. We tested three hypotheses that might explain the current situation: (i) ASFV may have been present throughout, but at a prevalence below the detection limit; (ii) seropositive wild boar may have remained infectious (i.e., virus-carriers) and kept the epidemic going; or (iii) ASF was gone for 1.5 years, but was recently re-introduced. Using Estonian surveillance data, the sensitivity of the surveillance system and the confidence in freedom from ASF were estimated. Furthermore, the detection probability was determined and cluster analyses were performed to investigate the role of serological positive wild boar. The results suggest that the surveillance system was not able to detect virus circulation at a design prevalence below 1%. With respect to the confidence in freedom from ASF, the results indicate that circulating virus should have been detected over time, if the prevalence was ≥2%. However, the decreasing wild boar population density and ongoing surveillance activities made ASFV circulation at a low prevalence unlikely. Cluster analyses provided no evidence for a significant accumulation of serologically positive wild boar in temporal connection to the re-emergence of ASFV. Further targeted research, such as long-term experimental studies and molecular epidemiology, is necessary to improve our knowledge on the epidemiology of ASF and to control the disease more effectively.Katja SchulzJana SchulzChristoph StaubachSandra BlomeImbi NurmojaFranz J. ConrathsCarola Sauter-LouisArvo ViltropMDPI AGarticleAfrican swine feverEstoniaASFV-carrierconfidence in freedomdetection probabilitysensitivity of surveillanceMicrobiologyQR1-502ENViruses, Vol 13, Iss 2121, p 2121 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	African swine fever Estonia ASFV-carrier confidence in freedom detection probability sensitivity of surveillance Microbiology QR1-502
spellingShingle	African swine fever Estonia ASFV-carrier confidence in freedom detection probability sensitivity of surveillance Microbiology QR1-502 Katja Schulz Jana Schulz Christoph Staubach Sandra Blome Imbi Nurmoja Franz J. Conraths Carola Sauter-Louis Arvo Viltrop African Swine Fever Re-Emerging in Estonia: The Role of Seropositive Wild Boar from an Epidemiological Perspective
description	African swine fever (ASF) emerged in Estonia in 2014. From February 2019 to August 2020, no pigs or wild boar tested positive for ASF virus (ASFV), only ASFV-specific antibodies could be detected in shot wild boar. However, ASF recently re-emerged in wild boar. We tested three hypotheses that might explain the current situation: (i) ASFV may have been present throughout, but at a prevalence below the detection limit; (ii) seropositive wild boar may have remained infectious (i.e., virus-carriers) and kept the epidemic going; or (iii) ASF was gone for 1.5 years, but was recently re-introduced. Using Estonian surveillance data, the sensitivity of the surveillance system and the confidence in freedom from ASF were estimated. Furthermore, the detection probability was determined and cluster analyses were performed to investigate the role of serological positive wild boar. The results suggest that the surveillance system was not able to detect virus circulation at a design prevalence below 1%. With respect to the confidence in freedom from ASF, the results indicate that circulating virus should have been detected over time, if the prevalence was ≥2%. However, the decreasing wild boar population density and ongoing surveillance activities made ASFV circulation at a low prevalence unlikely. Cluster analyses provided no evidence for a significant accumulation of serologically positive wild boar in temporal connection to the re-emergence of ASFV. Further targeted research, such as long-term experimental studies and molecular epidemiology, is necessary to improve our knowledge on the epidemiology of ASF and to control the disease more effectively.
format	article
author	Katja Schulz Jana Schulz Christoph Staubach Sandra Blome Imbi Nurmoja Franz J. Conraths Carola Sauter-Louis Arvo Viltrop
author_facet	Katja Schulz Jana Schulz Christoph Staubach Sandra Blome Imbi Nurmoja Franz J. Conraths Carola Sauter-Louis Arvo Viltrop
author_sort	Katja Schulz
title	African Swine Fever Re-Emerging in Estonia: The Role of Seropositive Wild Boar from an Epidemiological Perspective
title_short	African Swine Fever Re-Emerging in Estonia: The Role of Seropositive Wild Boar from an Epidemiological Perspective
title_full	African Swine Fever Re-Emerging in Estonia: The Role of Seropositive Wild Boar from an Epidemiological Perspective
title_fullStr	African Swine Fever Re-Emerging in Estonia: The Role of Seropositive Wild Boar from an Epidemiological Perspective
title_full_unstemmed	African Swine Fever Re-Emerging in Estonia: The Role of Seropositive Wild Boar from an Epidemiological Perspective
title_sort	african swine fever re-emerging in estonia: the role of seropositive wild boar from an epidemiological perspective
publisher	MDPI AG
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/548dc080e2e74eb5ad614a7876df4f50
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African Swine Fever Re-Emerging in Estonia: The Role of Seropositive Wild Boar from an Epidemiological Perspective

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