Projected increases in surface melt and ice loss for the Northern and Southern Patagonian Icefields

Abstract The Northern Patagonian Icefield (NPI) and the Southern Patagonian Icefield (SPI) have increased their ice mass loss in recent decades. In view of the impacts of glacier shrinkage in Patagonia, an assessment of the potential future surface mass balance (SMB) of the icefields is critical. We...

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Autores principales:	Claudio Bravo, Deniz Bozkurt, Andrew N. Ross, Duncan J. Quincey
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/54a839e55ee24edd863e0071ccb82ed8
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:54a839e55ee24edd863e0071ccb82ed82021-12-02T16:45:41ZProjected increases in surface melt and ice loss for the Northern and Southern Patagonian Icefields10.1038/s41598-021-95725-w2045-2322https://doaj.org/article/54a839e55ee24edd863e0071ccb82ed82021-08-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-95725-whttps://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract The Northern Patagonian Icefield (NPI) and the Southern Patagonian Icefield (SPI) have increased their ice mass loss in recent decades. In view of the impacts of glacier shrinkage in Patagonia, an assessment of the potential future surface mass balance (SMB) of the icefields is critical. We seek to provide this assessment by modelling the SMB between 1976 and 2050 for both icefields, using regional climate model data (RegCM4.6) and a range of emission scenarios. For the NPI, reductions between 1.5 m w.e. (RCP2.6) and 1.9 m w.e. (RCP8.5) were estimated in the mean SMB during the period 2005–2050 compared to the historical period (1976–2005). For the SPI, the estimated reductions were between 1.1 m w.e. (RCP2.6) and 1.5 m w.e. (RCP8.5). Recently frontal ablation estimates suggest that mean SMB in the SPI is positively biased by 1.5 m w.e., probably due to accumulation overestimation. If it is assumed that frontal ablation rates of the recent past will continue, ice loss and sea-level rise contribution will increase. The trend towards lower SMB is mostly explained by an increase in surface melt. Positive ice loss feedbacks linked to increasing in meltwater availability are expected for calving glaciers.Claudio BravoDeniz BozkurtAndrew N. RossDuncan J. QuinceyNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-13 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Claudio Bravo Deniz Bozkurt Andrew N. Ross Duncan J. Quincey Projected increases in surface melt and ice loss for the Northern and Southern Patagonian Icefields
description	Abstract The Northern Patagonian Icefield (NPI) and the Southern Patagonian Icefield (SPI) have increased their ice mass loss in recent decades. In view of the impacts of glacier shrinkage in Patagonia, an assessment of the potential future surface mass balance (SMB) of the icefields is critical. We seek to provide this assessment by modelling the SMB between 1976 and 2050 for both icefields, using regional climate model data (RegCM4.6) and a range of emission scenarios. For the NPI, reductions between 1.5 m w.e. (RCP2.6) and 1.9 m w.e. (RCP8.5) were estimated in the mean SMB during the period 2005–2050 compared to the historical period (1976–2005). For the SPI, the estimated reductions were between 1.1 m w.e. (RCP2.6) and 1.5 m w.e. (RCP8.5). Recently frontal ablation estimates suggest that mean SMB in the SPI is positively biased by 1.5 m w.e., probably due to accumulation overestimation. If it is assumed that frontal ablation rates of the recent past will continue, ice loss and sea-level rise contribution will increase. The trend towards lower SMB is mostly explained by an increase in surface melt. Positive ice loss feedbacks linked to increasing in meltwater availability are expected for calving glaciers.
format	article
author	Claudio Bravo Deniz Bozkurt Andrew N. Ross Duncan J. Quincey
author_facet	Claudio Bravo Deniz Bozkurt Andrew N. Ross Duncan J. Quincey
author_sort	Claudio Bravo
title	Projected increases in surface melt and ice loss for the Northern and Southern Patagonian Icefields
title_short	Projected increases in surface melt and ice loss for the Northern and Southern Patagonian Icefields
title_full	Projected increases in surface melt and ice loss for the Northern and Southern Patagonian Icefields
title_fullStr	Projected increases in surface melt and ice loss for the Northern and Southern Patagonian Icefields
title_full_unstemmed	Projected increases in surface melt and ice loss for the Northern and Southern Patagonian Icefields
title_sort	projected increases in surface melt and ice loss for the northern and southern patagonian icefields
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/54a839e55ee24edd863e0071ccb82ed8
work_keys_str_mv	AT claudiobravo projectedincreasesinsurfacemeltandicelossforthenorthernandsouthernpatagonianicefields AT denizbozkurt projectedincreasesinsurfacemeltandicelossforthenorthernandsouthernpatagonianicefields AT andrewnross projectedincreasesinsurfacemeltandicelossforthenorthernandsouthernpatagonianicefields AT duncanjquincey projectedincreasesinsurfacemeltandicelossforthenorthernandsouthernpatagonianicefields
_version_	1718383453170302976

Projected increases in surface melt and ice loss for the Northern and Southern Patagonian Icefields

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