Optimization of non-periodic inspection of structural components by Bayesian approach

This paper presents an advanced Bayesian analysis method to determine the appropriate non-periodic inspection intervals of fatigue-sensitive structures. The calculation procedure of the posterior distribution is improved compared to the previous methods. The method is based on assumptions about the...

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Autores principales:	Haoyu HUANG, Jeremy KNOPP, Manabu TSUNOKAI, Hiroo ASADA
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	The Japan Society of Mechanical Engineers 2018
Materias:	bayesian methods maintenance optimization probability density function reliability Mechanical engineering and machinery TJ1-1570
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/54d2538b9e254b36bae415931db904c4
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:54d2538b9e254b36bae415931db904c42021-11-26T07:23:09ZOptimization of non-periodic inspection of structural components by Bayesian approach2187-974510.1299/mej.18-00157https://doaj.org/article/54d2538b9e254b36bae415931db904c42018-08-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/mej/5/5/5_18-00157/_pdf/-char/enhttps://doaj.org/toc/2187-9745This paper presents an advanced Bayesian analysis method to determine the appropriate non-periodic inspection intervals of fatigue-sensitive structures. The calculation procedure of the posterior distribution is improved compared to the previous methods. The method is based on assumptions about the probability density functions of the time until crack initiation, a law of crack propagation, the probability of crack detection and the failure rate before and after crack initiation. A major feature of this method is that even when there are uncertain parameters in the equations, the next inspection interval can be determined. Moreover, the probability density function of the uncertain parameters is updated according to the results of each inspection. A simulation study was conducted to evaluate the proposed method. The proposed method is evaluated and it is statistically shown that this Bayesian approach allows (a) evaluation the inspection interval accurately even with incorrect prior knowledge about the parameters and, (b) estimation of the reliability of a system accurately, even when some of the parameters are uncertain.Haoyu HUANGJeremy KNOPPManabu TSUNOKAIHiroo ASADAThe Japan Society of Mechanical Engineersarticlebayesian methodsmaintenanceoptimizationprobability density functionreliabilityMechanical engineering and machineryTJ1-1570ENMechanical Engineering Journal, Vol 5, Iss 5, Pp 18-00157-18-00157 (2018)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	bayesian methods maintenance optimization probability density function reliability Mechanical engineering and machinery TJ1-1570
spellingShingle	bayesian methods maintenance optimization probability density function reliability Mechanical engineering and machinery TJ1-1570 Haoyu HUANG Jeremy KNOPP Manabu TSUNOKAI Hiroo ASADA Optimization of non-periodic inspection of structural components by Bayesian approach
description	This paper presents an advanced Bayesian analysis method to determine the appropriate non-periodic inspection intervals of fatigue-sensitive structures. The calculation procedure of the posterior distribution is improved compared to the previous methods. The method is based on assumptions about the probability density functions of the time until crack initiation, a law of crack propagation, the probability of crack detection and the failure rate before and after crack initiation. A major feature of this method is that even when there are uncertain parameters in the equations, the next inspection interval can be determined. Moreover, the probability density function of the uncertain parameters is updated according to the results of each inspection. A simulation study was conducted to evaluate the proposed method. The proposed method is evaluated and it is statistically shown that this Bayesian approach allows (a) evaluation the inspection interval accurately even with incorrect prior knowledge about the parameters and, (b) estimation of the reliability of a system accurately, even when some of the parameters are uncertain.
format	article
author	Haoyu HUANG Jeremy KNOPP Manabu TSUNOKAI Hiroo ASADA
author_facet	Haoyu HUANG Jeremy KNOPP Manabu TSUNOKAI Hiroo ASADA
author_sort	Haoyu HUANG
title	Optimization of non-periodic inspection of structural components by Bayesian approach
title_short	Optimization of non-periodic inspection of structural components by Bayesian approach
title_full	Optimization of non-periodic inspection of structural components by Bayesian approach
title_fullStr	Optimization of non-periodic inspection of structural components by Bayesian approach
title_full_unstemmed	Optimization of non-periodic inspection of structural components by Bayesian approach
title_sort	optimization of non-periodic inspection of structural components by bayesian approach
publisher	The Japan Society of Mechanical Engineers
publishDate	2018
url	https://doaj.org/article/54d2538b9e254b36bae415931db904c4
work_keys_str_mv	AT haoyuhuang optimizationofnonperiodicinspectionofstructuralcomponentsbybayesianapproach AT jeremyknopp optimizationofnonperiodicinspectionofstructuralcomponentsbybayesianapproach AT manabutsunokai optimizationofnonperiodicinspectionofstructuralcomponentsbybayesianapproach AT hirooasada optimizationofnonperiodicinspectionofstructuralcomponentsbybayesianapproach
_version_	1718409656267702272

Optimization of non-periodic inspection of structural components by Bayesian approach

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