Simulation and estimation of future ecological risk on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Abstract Over the past 50 years, temperatures on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) have risen roughly twice as fast as the global average, making it the most unpredictable region of environmental change due to global warming. In this paper, an Environmental Area Index model was developed using data fr...

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Autores principales:	Shengzhen Wang, Fenggui Liu, Qiang Zhou, Qiong Chen, Fei Liu
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/553510755eea4bffb3a8a3913d07b6e1
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:553510755eea4bffb3a8a3913d07b6e12021-12-02T15:29:02ZSimulation and estimation of future ecological risk on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau10.1038/s41598-021-96958-52045-2322https://doaj.org/article/553510755eea4bffb3a8a3913d07b6e12021-09-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-96958-5https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Over the past 50 years, temperatures on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) have risen roughly twice as fast as the global average, making it the most unpredictable region of environmental change due to global warming. In this paper, an Environmental Area Index model was developed using data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project to assess the ecological risk faced by QTP ecosystems under the influence of climate factors. The results show that ecological risk gradually decreases from northwest to the southeast, and there are different trends in ecological risk for each class in areas with different elevation gradients. As elevation increased, the proportion of potential risk areas gradually decreased, and the proportion of high- and higher-risk areas gradually increased. We predict that in the period 2021–2100, the overall ecological risk change trend on the QTP will not be obvious, but there will be a more obvious change on the vertical gradient. In general, under the existing global climate change scenario, the ecological risk faced by the QTP show a decreasing trend under the influence of climate factors, and the decrease in ecological risks is much higher at higher elevations than at lower elevations.Shengzhen WangFenggui LiuQiang ZhouQiong ChenFei LiuNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-13 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Shengzhen Wang Fenggui Liu Qiang Zhou Qiong Chen Fei Liu Simulation and estimation of future ecological risk on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau
description	Abstract Over the past 50 years, temperatures on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) have risen roughly twice as fast as the global average, making it the most unpredictable region of environmental change due to global warming. In this paper, an Environmental Area Index model was developed using data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project to assess the ecological risk faced by QTP ecosystems under the influence of climate factors. The results show that ecological risk gradually decreases from northwest to the southeast, and there are different trends in ecological risk for each class in areas with different elevation gradients. As elevation increased, the proportion of potential risk areas gradually decreased, and the proportion of high- and higher-risk areas gradually increased. We predict that in the period 2021–2100, the overall ecological risk change trend on the QTP will not be obvious, but there will be a more obvious change on the vertical gradient. In general, under the existing global climate change scenario, the ecological risk faced by the QTP show a decreasing trend under the influence of climate factors, and the decrease in ecological risks is much higher at higher elevations than at lower elevations.
format	article
author	Shengzhen Wang Fenggui Liu Qiang Zhou Qiong Chen Fei Liu
author_facet	Shengzhen Wang Fenggui Liu Qiang Zhou Qiong Chen Fei Liu
author_sort	Shengzhen Wang
title	Simulation and estimation of future ecological risk on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau
title_short	Simulation and estimation of future ecological risk on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau
title_full	Simulation and estimation of future ecological risk on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau
title_fullStr	Simulation and estimation of future ecological risk on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau
title_full_unstemmed	Simulation and estimation of future ecological risk on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau
title_sort	simulation and estimation of future ecological risk on the qinghai-tibet plateau
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/553510755eea4bffb3a8a3913d07b6e1
work_keys_str_mv	AT shengzhenwang simulationandestimationoffutureecologicalriskontheqinghaitibetplateau AT fengguiliu simulationandestimationoffutureecologicalriskontheqinghaitibetplateau AT qiangzhou simulationandestimationoffutureecologicalriskontheqinghaitibetplateau AT qiongchen simulationandestimationoffutureecologicalriskontheqinghaitibetplateau AT feiliu simulationandestimationoffutureecologicalriskontheqinghaitibetplateau
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Simulation and estimation of future ecological risk on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

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