Vulnerability Assessment of Maize Yield Affected by Precipitation Fluctuations: A Northeastern United States Case Study

Crop yields are threatened by global climate change. Maize has high water requirements, and precipitation fluctuations can impact its yield. In this study, we used the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model to simulate maize yields in eight northeastern U.S. states. We used precipitati...

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Autores principales:	Peng Su, Shiqi Li, Jing’ai Wang, Fenggui Liu
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	MDPI AG 2021
Materias:	precipitation fluctuation vulnerability curve maize yield EPIC model risk assessment Agriculture S
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/55535f11d1ec4aa184eb98066b621256
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:55535f11d1ec4aa184eb98066b6212562021-11-25T18:09:33ZVulnerability Assessment of Maize Yield Affected by Precipitation Fluctuations: A Northeastern United States Case Study10.3390/land101111902073-445Xhttps://doaj.org/article/55535f11d1ec4aa184eb98066b6212562021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/10/11/1190https://doaj.org/toc/2073-445XCrop yields are threatened by global climate change. Maize has high water requirements, and precipitation fluctuations can impact its yield. In this study, we used the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model to simulate maize yields in eight northeastern U.S. states. We used precipitation fluctuations and the coefficient of variation (CV) of yield as indicators to construct a vulnerability curve for the CV of yield and precipitation fluctuations. We then evaluated the vulnerability of maize yields under precipitation fluctuations in the region. We obtained the following results: (1) the fitted vulnerability curves were classified into three categories (positive slope, negative slope, and insignificant fit), of which the first category accounted for about 92.7%, indicating that the CV of maize yield was positively correlated with precipitation fluctuations in most parts of the study area; and (2) the CV of maize yield under 11 precipitation fluctuation scenarios was mapped to express the CV at the spatial level, and the maize yield in Connecticut and Maryland proved to be the most sensitive to precipitation fluctuations. This study provided a theoretical and experimental basis for the prevention of maize yield risk under fluctuating precipitation conditions.Peng SuShiqi LiJing’ai WangFenggui LiuMDPI AGarticleprecipitation fluctuationvulnerability curvemaize yieldEPIC modelrisk assessmentAgricultureSENLand, Vol 10, Iss 1190, p 1190 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	precipitation fluctuation vulnerability curve maize yield EPIC model risk assessment Agriculture S
spellingShingle	precipitation fluctuation vulnerability curve maize yield EPIC model risk assessment Agriculture S Peng Su Shiqi Li Jing’ai Wang Fenggui Liu Vulnerability Assessment of Maize Yield Affected by Precipitation Fluctuations: A Northeastern United States Case Study
description	Crop yields are threatened by global climate change. Maize has high water requirements, and precipitation fluctuations can impact its yield. In this study, we used the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model to simulate maize yields in eight northeastern U.S. states. We used precipitation fluctuations and the coefficient of variation (CV) of yield as indicators to construct a vulnerability curve for the CV of yield and precipitation fluctuations. We then evaluated the vulnerability of maize yields under precipitation fluctuations in the region. We obtained the following results: (1) the fitted vulnerability curves were classified into three categories (positive slope, negative slope, and insignificant fit), of which the first category accounted for about 92.7%, indicating that the CV of maize yield was positively correlated with precipitation fluctuations in most parts of the study area; and (2) the CV of maize yield under 11 precipitation fluctuation scenarios was mapped to express the CV at the spatial level, and the maize yield in Connecticut and Maryland proved to be the most sensitive to precipitation fluctuations. This study provided a theoretical and experimental basis for the prevention of maize yield risk under fluctuating precipitation conditions.
format	article
author	Peng Su Shiqi Li Jing’ai Wang Fenggui Liu
author_facet	Peng Su Shiqi Li Jing’ai Wang Fenggui Liu
author_sort	Peng Su
title	Vulnerability Assessment of Maize Yield Affected by Precipitation Fluctuations: A Northeastern United States Case Study
title_short	Vulnerability Assessment of Maize Yield Affected by Precipitation Fluctuations: A Northeastern United States Case Study
title_full	Vulnerability Assessment of Maize Yield Affected by Precipitation Fluctuations: A Northeastern United States Case Study
title_fullStr	Vulnerability Assessment of Maize Yield Affected by Precipitation Fluctuations: A Northeastern United States Case Study
title_full_unstemmed	Vulnerability Assessment of Maize Yield Affected by Precipitation Fluctuations: A Northeastern United States Case Study
title_sort	vulnerability assessment of maize yield affected by precipitation fluctuations: a northeastern united states case study
publisher	MDPI AG
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/55535f11d1ec4aa184eb98066b621256
work_keys_str_mv	AT pengsu vulnerabilityassessmentofmaizeyieldaffectedbyprecipitationfluctuationsanortheasternunitedstatescasestudy AT shiqili vulnerabilityassessmentofmaizeyieldaffectedbyprecipitationfluctuationsanortheasternunitedstatescasestudy AT jingaiwang vulnerabilityassessmentofmaizeyieldaffectedbyprecipitationfluctuationsanortheasternunitedstatescasestudy AT fengguiliu vulnerabilityassessmentofmaizeyieldaffectedbyprecipitationfluctuationsanortheasternunitedstatescasestudy
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Vulnerability Assessment of Maize Yield Affected by Precipitation Fluctuations: A Northeastern United States Case Study

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