Inferring HIV Transmission Network Determinants Using Agent-Based Models Calibrated to Multi-Data Sources

(1) Background: Calibration of Simpact Cyan can help to improve estimates related to the transmission dynamics of the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV). Age-mixing patterns in sexual partnerships, onward transmissions, and temporal trends of HIV incidence are determinants which can inform the desig...

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Autores principales:	David Niyukuri, Trust Chibawara, Peter Suwirakwenda Nyasulu, Wim Delva
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	MDPI AG 2021
Materias:	agent-based model individual-based calibration summary statistics HIV phylogenetic tree Mathematics QA1-939
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/55f81a79bc864a9a9509c19338611433
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:55f81a79bc864a9a9509c193386114332021-11-11T18:13:36ZInferring HIV Transmission Network Determinants Using Agent-Based Models Calibrated to Multi-Data Sources10.3390/math92126452227-7390https://doaj.org/article/55f81a79bc864a9a9509c193386114332021-10-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/9/21/2645https://doaj.org/toc/2227-7390(1) Background: Calibration of Simpact Cyan can help to improve estimates related to the transmission dynamics of the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV). Age-mixing patterns in sexual partnerships, onward transmissions, and temporal trends of HIV incidence are determinants which can inform the design of efficient prevention, and linkage-to-care programs. Using an agent-based model (ABM) simulation tool, we investigated, through a simulation study, if estimates of these determinants can be obtained with high accuracy by combining summary features from different data sources. (2) Methods: With specific parameters, we generated the benchmark data, and calibrated the default model in three scenarios based on summary features for comparison. For calibration, we used Latin Hypercube Sampling approach to generate parameter values, and Approximation Bayesian Computation to choose the best fitting ones. In all calibration scenarios the mean square root error was used as a measure to depict the estimates accuracy. (3) Results: The accuracy measure showed relatively no difference between the three scenarios. Moreover, we found that in all scenarios, age and gender strata incidence trends were poorly estimated. (4) Conclusions: Using synthetic benchmarks, we showed that it is possible to infer HIV transmission dynamics using an ABM of HIV transmission. Our results suggest that any type of summary feature provides adequate information to estimate HIV transmission network determinants. However, it is advisable to check the level of accuracy of the estimates of interest using benchmark data.David NiyukuriTrust ChibawaraPeter Suwirakwenda NyasuluWim DelvaMDPI AGarticleagent-based modelindividual-basedcalibrationsummary statisticsHIVphylogenetic treeMathematicsQA1-939ENMathematics, Vol 9, Iss 2645, p 2645 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	agent-based model individual-based calibration summary statistics HIV phylogenetic tree Mathematics QA1-939
spellingShingle	agent-based model individual-based calibration summary statistics HIV phylogenetic tree Mathematics QA1-939 David Niyukuri Trust Chibawara Peter Suwirakwenda Nyasulu Wim Delva Inferring HIV Transmission Network Determinants Using Agent-Based Models Calibrated to Multi-Data Sources
description	(1) Background: Calibration of Simpact Cyan can help to improve estimates related to the transmission dynamics of the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV). Age-mixing patterns in sexual partnerships, onward transmissions, and temporal trends of HIV incidence are determinants which can inform the design of efficient prevention, and linkage-to-care programs. Using an agent-based model (ABM) simulation tool, we investigated, through a simulation study, if estimates of these determinants can be obtained with high accuracy by combining summary features from different data sources. (2) Methods: With specific parameters, we generated the benchmark data, and calibrated the default model in three scenarios based on summary features for comparison. For calibration, we used Latin Hypercube Sampling approach to generate parameter values, and Approximation Bayesian Computation to choose the best fitting ones. In all calibration scenarios the mean square root error was used as a measure to depict the estimates accuracy. (3) Results: The accuracy measure showed relatively no difference between the three scenarios. Moreover, we found that in all scenarios, age and gender strata incidence trends were poorly estimated. (4) Conclusions: Using synthetic benchmarks, we showed that it is possible to infer HIV transmission dynamics using an ABM of HIV transmission. Our results suggest that any type of summary feature provides adequate information to estimate HIV transmission network determinants. However, it is advisable to check the level of accuracy of the estimates of interest using benchmark data.
format	article
author	David Niyukuri Trust Chibawara Peter Suwirakwenda Nyasulu Wim Delva
author_facet	David Niyukuri Trust Chibawara Peter Suwirakwenda Nyasulu Wim Delva
author_sort	David Niyukuri
title	Inferring HIV Transmission Network Determinants Using Agent-Based Models Calibrated to Multi-Data Sources
title_short	Inferring HIV Transmission Network Determinants Using Agent-Based Models Calibrated to Multi-Data Sources
title_full	Inferring HIV Transmission Network Determinants Using Agent-Based Models Calibrated to Multi-Data Sources
title_fullStr	Inferring HIV Transmission Network Determinants Using Agent-Based Models Calibrated to Multi-Data Sources
title_full_unstemmed	Inferring HIV Transmission Network Determinants Using Agent-Based Models Calibrated to Multi-Data Sources
title_sort	inferring hiv transmission network determinants using agent-based models calibrated to multi-data sources
publisher	MDPI AG
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/55f81a79bc864a9a9509c19338611433
work_keys_str_mv	AT davidniyukuri inferringhivtransmissionnetworkdeterminantsusingagentbasedmodelscalibratedtomultidatasources AT trustchibawara inferringhivtransmissionnetworkdeterminantsusingagentbasedmodelscalibratedtomultidatasources AT petersuwirakwendanyasulu inferringhivtransmissionnetworkdeterminantsusingagentbasedmodelscalibratedtomultidatasources AT wimdelva inferringhivtransmissionnetworkdeterminantsusingagentbasedmodelscalibratedtomultidatasources
_version_	1718431885442416640

Inferring HIV Transmission Network Determinants Using Agent-Based Models Calibrated to Multi-Data Sources

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