Projected Changes in Precipitation Extremes Over Jiulongjiang River Basin in Coastal Southeast China

The southeast coastal region of China is susceptible to challenges related to extreme precipitation events; hence, projection of future climate extremes changes is crucial for sustainable development in the region. Using the Regional Climate Model Version 4 (RegCM4), the future changes of summer pre...

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Autores principales:	Chang Li, Victor Nnamdi Dike, Zhaohui Lin, Xuejie Gao
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Frontiers Media S.A. 2021
Materias:	precipitation extremes return levels RegCM4 future projection coastal watershed Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/578c87221bf14f06a193351194e304de
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:578c87221bf14f06a193351194e304de2021-11-16T07:45:14ZProjected Changes in Precipitation Extremes Over Jiulongjiang River Basin in Coastal Southeast China2296-646310.3389/feart.2021.771592https://doaj.org/article/578c87221bf14f06a193351194e304de2021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2021.771592/fullhttps://doaj.org/toc/2296-6463The southeast coastal region of China is susceptible to challenges related to extreme precipitation events; hence, projection of future climate extremes changes is crucial for sustainable development in the region. Using the Regional Climate Model Version 4 (RegCM4), the future changes of summer precipitation extremes have been investigated over the Jiulongjiang River Basin (JRB), a coastal watershed in Southeast China. Comparison between the RegCM4 simulated and observed rainy season precipitation over JRB suggests that the RegCM4 can reasonably reproduce the seasonal precipitation cycle, the frequency distribution of precipitation intensity, and the 50-year return levels of precipitation extremes over JRB. Furthermore, the model projects an increase in daily maximum rainfall (RX1day) mostly over the northern part of the basin and a decrease over other parts of the basin, while projecting a widespread decrease for maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation amount (RX5day) relative to the present day. In terms of the 50-year return level of RX1day (RL50yr_RX1day), a general increase is projected over most parts of the basin in the near and far future of the 21st century, but a decrease can be found in the northeast and southwest parts of the JRB in the mid-21st century. The future change of the 50-year return level of RX5day (RL50yr_RX5day) shows a similar spatial pattern with that of RL50yr_RX1day in the near and mid-21st century, but with a larger magnitude. However, a remarkable decrease in RL50yr_RX5day is found in the south basin in the far future. Meanwhile, the projected changes in the 50-year return level for both RX1day and RX5day differ between the first and second rainy seasons in JRB. Specifically, the future increase in RL50yr_RX5day over the north basin is mainly contributed by the changes during the first-half rainy season, while the decrease of RL50yr_RX5day in the south is mostly ascribed to the future changes during the second-half rainy season. All above results indicate that the future changes of precipitation extremes in JRB are complicated, which might differ from extreme indices, seasons, and future projected periods. These will thus be of practical significance for flood risk management, mitigation, and adaptation measures in Jiulongjiang River Basin.Chang LiChang LiVictor Nnamdi DikeZhaohui LinZhaohui LinZhaohui LinXuejie GaoXuejie GaoFrontiers Media S.A.articleprecipitation extremesreturn levelsRegCM4future projectioncoastal watershedScienceQENFrontiers in Earth Science, Vol 9 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	precipitation extremes return levels RegCM4 future projection coastal watershed Science Q
spellingShingle	precipitation extremes return levels RegCM4 future projection coastal watershed Science Q Chang Li Chang Li Victor Nnamdi Dike Zhaohui Lin Zhaohui Lin Zhaohui Lin Xuejie Gao Xuejie Gao Projected Changes in Precipitation Extremes Over Jiulongjiang River Basin in Coastal Southeast China
description	The southeast coastal region of China is susceptible to challenges related to extreme precipitation events; hence, projection of future climate extremes changes is crucial for sustainable development in the region. Using the Regional Climate Model Version 4 (RegCM4), the future changes of summer precipitation extremes have been investigated over the Jiulongjiang River Basin (JRB), a coastal watershed in Southeast China. Comparison between the RegCM4 simulated and observed rainy season precipitation over JRB suggests that the RegCM4 can reasonably reproduce the seasonal precipitation cycle, the frequency distribution of precipitation intensity, and the 50-year return levels of precipitation extremes over JRB. Furthermore, the model projects an increase in daily maximum rainfall (RX1day) mostly over the northern part of the basin and a decrease over other parts of the basin, while projecting a widespread decrease for maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation amount (RX5day) relative to the present day. In terms of the 50-year return level of RX1day (RL50yr_RX1day), a general increase is projected over most parts of the basin in the near and far future of the 21st century, but a decrease can be found in the northeast and southwest parts of the JRB in the mid-21st century. The future change of the 50-year return level of RX5day (RL50yr_RX5day) shows a similar spatial pattern with that of RL50yr_RX1day in the near and mid-21st century, but with a larger magnitude. However, a remarkable decrease in RL50yr_RX5day is found in the south basin in the far future. Meanwhile, the projected changes in the 50-year return level for both RX1day and RX5day differ between the first and second rainy seasons in JRB. Specifically, the future increase in RL50yr_RX5day over the north basin is mainly contributed by the changes during the first-half rainy season, while the decrease of RL50yr_RX5day in the south is mostly ascribed to the future changes during the second-half rainy season. All above results indicate that the future changes of precipitation extremes in JRB are complicated, which might differ from extreme indices, seasons, and future projected periods. These will thus be of practical significance for flood risk management, mitigation, and adaptation measures in Jiulongjiang River Basin.
format	article
author	Chang Li Chang Li Victor Nnamdi Dike Zhaohui Lin Zhaohui Lin Zhaohui Lin Xuejie Gao Xuejie Gao
author_facet	Chang Li Chang Li Victor Nnamdi Dike Zhaohui Lin Zhaohui Lin Zhaohui Lin Xuejie Gao Xuejie Gao
author_sort	Chang Li
title	Projected Changes in Precipitation Extremes Over Jiulongjiang River Basin in Coastal Southeast China
title_short	Projected Changes in Precipitation Extremes Over Jiulongjiang River Basin in Coastal Southeast China
title_full	Projected Changes in Precipitation Extremes Over Jiulongjiang River Basin in Coastal Southeast China
title_fullStr	Projected Changes in Precipitation Extremes Over Jiulongjiang River Basin in Coastal Southeast China
title_full_unstemmed	Projected Changes in Precipitation Extremes Over Jiulongjiang River Basin in Coastal Southeast China
title_sort	projected changes in precipitation extremes over jiulongjiang river basin in coastal southeast china
publisher	Frontiers Media S.A.
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/578c87221bf14f06a193351194e304de
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Projected Changes in Precipitation Extremes Over Jiulongjiang River Basin in Coastal Southeast China

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