Analyzing admissions metrics as predictors of graduate GPA and whether graduate GPA mediates Ph.D. completion

An analysis of 1955 physics graduate students from 19 Ph.D. programs shows that undergraduate grade point average predicts graduate grades and Ph.D. completion more effectively than GRE scores. Students’ undergraduate GPA (UGPA) and GRE Physics (GRE-P) scores are small but statistically significant...

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Autores principales:	Mike Verostek, Casey W. Miller, Benjamin Zwickl
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	American Physical Society 2021
Materias:	Special aspects of education LC8-6691 Physics QC1-999
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/58300cbbcf34457e9007478573af2206
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:58300cbbcf34457e9007478573af22062021-12-02T19:17:36ZAnalyzing admissions metrics as predictors of graduate GPA and whether graduate GPA mediates Ph.D. completion10.1103/PhysRevPhysEducRes.17.0201152469-9896https://doaj.org/article/58300cbbcf34457e9007478573af22062021-09-01T00:00:00Zhttp://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevPhysEducRes.17.020115http://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevPhysEducRes.17.020115https://doaj.org/toc/2469-9896An analysis of 1955 physics graduate students from 19 Ph.D. programs shows that undergraduate grade point average predicts graduate grades and Ph.D. completion more effectively than GRE scores. Students’ undergraduate GPA (UGPA) and GRE Physics (GRE-P) scores are small but statistically significant predictors of graduate course grades, while GRE quantitative and GRE verbal scores are not. We also find that males and females score equally well in their graduate coursework despite a statistically significant 18 percentile point gap in median GRE-P scores between genders. A counterfactual mediation analysis demonstrates that among admission metrics tested only UGPA is a significant predictor of overall Ph.D. completion, and that UGPA predicts Ph.D. completion indirectly through graduate grades. Thus UGPA measures traits linked to graduate course grades, which in turn predict graduate completion. Although GRE-P scores are not significantly associated with Ph.D. completion, our results suggest that any predictive effect they may have is also linked indirectly through graduate GPA. Overall our results indicate that among commonly used quantitative admissions metrics, UGPA offers the most insight into two important measures of graduate school success, while posing fewer concerns for equitable admissions practices.Mike VerostekCasey W. MillerBenjamin ZwicklAmerican Physical SocietyarticleSpecial aspects of educationLC8-6691PhysicsQC1-999ENPhysical Review Physics Education Research, Vol 17, Iss 2, p 020115 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Special aspects of education LC8-6691 Physics QC1-999
spellingShingle	Special aspects of education LC8-6691 Physics QC1-999 Mike Verostek Casey W. Miller Benjamin Zwickl Analyzing admissions metrics as predictors of graduate GPA and whether graduate GPA mediates Ph.D. completion
description	An analysis of 1955 physics graduate students from 19 Ph.D. programs shows that undergraduate grade point average predicts graduate grades and Ph.D. completion more effectively than GRE scores. Students’ undergraduate GPA (UGPA) and GRE Physics (GRE-P) scores are small but statistically significant predictors of graduate course grades, while GRE quantitative and GRE verbal scores are not. We also find that males and females score equally well in their graduate coursework despite a statistically significant 18 percentile point gap in median GRE-P scores between genders. A counterfactual mediation analysis demonstrates that among admission metrics tested only UGPA is a significant predictor of overall Ph.D. completion, and that UGPA predicts Ph.D. completion indirectly through graduate grades. Thus UGPA measures traits linked to graduate course grades, which in turn predict graduate completion. Although GRE-P scores are not significantly associated with Ph.D. completion, our results suggest that any predictive effect they may have is also linked indirectly through graduate GPA. Overall our results indicate that among commonly used quantitative admissions metrics, UGPA offers the most insight into two important measures of graduate school success, while posing fewer concerns for equitable admissions practices.
format	article
author	Mike Verostek Casey W. Miller Benjamin Zwickl
author_facet	Mike Verostek Casey W. Miller Benjamin Zwickl
author_sort	Mike Verostek
title	Analyzing admissions metrics as predictors of graduate GPA and whether graduate GPA mediates Ph.D. completion
title_short	Analyzing admissions metrics as predictors of graduate GPA and whether graduate GPA mediates Ph.D. completion
title_full	Analyzing admissions metrics as predictors of graduate GPA and whether graduate GPA mediates Ph.D. completion
title_fullStr	Analyzing admissions metrics as predictors of graduate GPA and whether graduate GPA mediates Ph.D. completion
title_full_unstemmed	Analyzing admissions metrics as predictors of graduate GPA and whether graduate GPA mediates Ph.D. completion
title_sort	analyzing admissions metrics as predictors of graduate gpa and whether graduate gpa mediates ph.d. completion
publisher	American Physical Society
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/58300cbbcf34457e9007478573af2206
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Analyzing admissions metrics as predictors of graduate GPA and whether graduate GPA mediates Ph.D. completion

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