Bluetongue disease risk assessment based on observed and projected Culicoides obsoletus spp. vector densities.

Bluetongue is an arboviral disease of ruminants causing significant economic losses. Our risk assessment is based on the epidemiological key parameter, the basic reproduction number. It is defined as the number of secondary cases caused by one primary case in a fully susceptible host population, in...

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Autores principales:	Katharina Brugger, Franz Rubel
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2013
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/587d95b90d7849cebb3d8d8be2d25b61
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:587d95b90d7849cebb3d8d8be2d25b612021-11-18T07:51:12ZBluetongue disease risk assessment based on observed and projected Culicoides obsoletus spp. vector densities.1932-620310.1371/journal.pone.0060330https://doaj.org/article/587d95b90d7849cebb3d8d8be2d25b612013-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/pmid/23560090/pdf/?tool=EBIhttps://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203Bluetongue is an arboviral disease of ruminants causing significant economic losses. Our risk assessment is based on the epidemiological key parameter, the basic reproduction number. It is defined as the number of secondary cases caused by one primary case in a fully susceptible host population, in which values greater than one indicate the possibility, i.e., the risk, for a major disease outbreak. In the course of the Bluetongue virus serotype 8 (BTV-8) outbreak in Europe in 2006 we developed such a risk assessment for the University of Veterinary Medicine Vienna, Austria. Basic reproduction numbers were calculated using a well-known formula for vector-borne diseases considering the population densities of hosts (cattle and small ruminants) and vectors (biting midges of the Culicoides obsoletus spp.) as well as temperature dependent rates. The latter comprise the biting and mortality rate of midges as well as the reciprocal of the extrinsic incubation period. Most important, but generally unknown, is the spatio-temporal distribution of the vector density. Therefore, we established a continuously operating daily monitoring to quantify the seasonal cycle of the vector population by a statistical model. We used cross-correlation maps and Poisson regression to describe vector densities by environmental temperature and precipitation. Our results comprise time series of observed and simulated Culicoides obsoletus spp. counts as well as basic reproduction numbers for the period 2009-2011. For a spatio-temporal risk assessment we projected our results from the location of Vienna to the entire region of Austria. We compiled both daily maps of vector densities and the basic reproduction numbers, respectively. Basic reproduction numbers above one were generally found between June and August except in the mountainous regions of the Alps. The highest values coincide with the locations of confirmed BTV cases.Katharina BruggerFranz RubelPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleMedicineRScienceQENPLoS ONE, Vol 8, Iss 4, p e60330 (2013)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Katharina Brugger Franz Rubel Bluetongue disease risk assessment based on observed and projected Culicoides obsoletus spp. vector densities.
description	Bluetongue is an arboviral disease of ruminants causing significant economic losses. Our risk assessment is based on the epidemiological key parameter, the basic reproduction number. It is defined as the number of secondary cases caused by one primary case in a fully susceptible host population, in which values greater than one indicate the possibility, i.e., the risk, for a major disease outbreak. In the course of the Bluetongue virus serotype 8 (BTV-8) outbreak in Europe in 2006 we developed such a risk assessment for the University of Veterinary Medicine Vienna, Austria. Basic reproduction numbers were calculated using a well-known formula for vector-borne diseases considering the population densities of hosts (cattle and small ruminants) and vectors (biting midges of the Culicoides obsoletus spp.) as well as temperature dependent rates. The latter comprise the biting and mortality rate of midges as well as the reciprocal of the extrinsic incubation period. Most important, but generally unknown, is the spatio-temporal distribution of the vector density. Therefore, we established a continuously operating daily monitoring to quantify the seasonal cycle of the vector population by a statistical model. We used cross-correlation maps and Poisson regression to describe vector densities by environmental temperature and precipitation. Our results comprise time series of observed and simulated Culicoides obsoletus spp. counts as well as basic reproduction numbers for the period 2009-2011. For a spatio-temporal risk assessment we projected our results from the location of Vienna to the entire region of Austria. We compiled both daily maps of vector densities and the basic reproduction numbers, respectively. Basic reproduction numbers above one were generally found between June and August except in the mountainous regions of the Alps. The highest values coincide with the locations of confirmed BTV cases.
format	article
author	Katharina Brugger Franz Rubel
author_facet	Katharina Brugger Franz Rubel
author_sort	Katharina Brugger
title	Bluetongue disease risk assessment based on observed and projected Culicoides obsoletus spp. vector densities.
title_short	Bluetongue disease risk assessment based on observed and projected Culicoides obsoletus spp. vector densities.
title_full	Bluetongue disease risk assessment based on observed and projected Culicoides obsoletus spp. vector densities.
title_fullStr	Bluetongue disease risk assessment based on observed and projected Culicoides obsoletus spp. vector densities.
title_full_unstemmed	Bluetongue disease risk assessment based on observed and projected Culicoides obsoletus spp. vector densities.
title_sort	bluetongue disease risk assessment based on observed and projected culicoides obsoletus spp. vector densities.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2013
url	https://doaj.org/article/587d95b90d7849cebb3d8d8be2d25b61
work_keys_str_mv	AT katharinabrugger bluetonguediseaseriskassessmentbasedonobservedandprojectedculicoidesobsoletussppvectordensities AT franzrubel bluetonguediseaseriskassessmentbasedonobservedandprojectedculicoidesobsoletussppvectordensities
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Bluetongue disease risk assessment based on observed and projected Culicoides obsoletus spp. vector densities.

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