Forecasting the future risk of Barmah Forest virus disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia.

<h4>Background</h4>Mosquito-borne diseases are climate sensitive and there has been increasing concern over the impact of climate change on future disease risk. This paper projected the potential future risk of Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease under climate change scenarios in Queenslan...

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Autores principales:	Suchithra Naish, Kerrie Mengersen, Wenbiao Hu, Shilu Tong
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2013
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/591e1ec0265f4dccb1ea0084b1b21ee6
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:591e1ec0265f4dccb1ea0084b1b21ee62021-11-18T07:45:43ZForecasting the future risk of Barmah Forest virus disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia.1932-620310.1371/journal.pone.0062843https://doaj.org/article/591e1ec0265f4dccb1ea0084b1b21ee62013-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/pmid/23690959/pdf/?tool=EBIhttps://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203<h4>Background</h4>Mosquito-borne diseases are climate sensitive and there has been increasing concern over the impact of climate change on future disease risk. This paper projected the potential future risk of Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia.<h4>Methods/principal findings</h4>We obtained data on notified BFV cases, climate (maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall), socio-economic and tidal conditions for current period 2000-2008 for coastal regions in Queensland. Grid-data on future climate projections for 2025, 2050 and 2100 were also obtained. Logistic regression models were built to forecast the otential risk of BFV disease distribution under existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions. The model was applied to estimate the potential geographic distribution of BFV outbreaks under climate change scenarios. The predictive model had good model accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. Maps on potential risk of future BFV disease indicated that disease would vary significantly across coastal regions in Queensland by 2100 due to marked differences in future rainfall and temperature projections.<h4>Conclusions/significance</h4>We conclude that the results of this study demonstrate that the future risk of BFV disease would vary across coastal regions in Queensland. These results may be helpful for public health decision making towards developing effective risk management strategies for BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.Suchithra NaishKerrie MengersenWenbiao HuShilu TongPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleMedicineRScienceQENPLoS ONE, Vol 8, Iss 5, p e62843 (2013)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Suchithra Naish Kerrie Mengersen Wenbiao Hu Shilu Tong Forecasting the future risk of Barmah Forest virus disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia.
description	<h4>Background</h4>Mosquito-borne diseases are climate sensitive and there has been increasing concern over the impact of climate change on future disease risk. This paper projected the potential future risk of Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia.<h4>Methods/principal findings</h4>We obtained data on notified BFV cases, climate (maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall), socio-economic and tidal conditions for current period 2000-2008 for coastal regions in Queensland. Grid-data on future climate projections for 2025, 2050 and 2100 were also obtained. Logistic regression models were built to forecast the otential risk of BFV disease distribution under existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions. The model was applied to estimate the potential geographic distribution of BFV outbreaks under climate change scenarios. The predictive model had good model accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. Maps on potential risk of future BFV disease indicated that disease would vary significantly across coastal regions in Queensland by 2100 due to marked differences in future rainfall and temperature projections.<h4>Conclusions/significance</h4>We conclude that the results of this study demonstrate that the future risk of BFV disease would vary across coastal regions in Queensland. These results may be helpful for public health decision making towards developing effective risk management strategies for BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.
format	article
author	Suchithra Naish Kerrie Mengersen Wenbiao Hu Shilu Tong
author_facet	Suchithra Naish Kerrie Mengersen Wenbiao Hu Shilu Tong
author_sort	Suchithra Naish
title	Forecasting the future risk of Barmah Forest virus disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia.
title_short	Forecasting the future risk of Barmah Forest virus disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia.
title_full	Forecasting the future risk of Barmah Forest virus disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia.
title_fullStr	Forecasting the future risk of Barmah Forest virus disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia.
title_full_unstemmed	Forecasting the future risk of Barmah Forest virus disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia.
title_sort	forecasting the future risk of barmah forest virus disease under climate change scenarios in queensland, australia.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2013
url	https://doaj.org/article/591e1ec0265f4dccb1ea0084b1b21ee6
work_keys_str_mv	AT suchithranaish forecastingthefutureriskofbarmahforestvirusdiseaseunderclimatechangescenariosinqueenslandaustralia AT kerriemengersen forecastingthefutureriskofbarmahforestvirusdiseaseunderclimatechangescenariosinqueenslandaustralia AT wenbiaohu forecastingthefutureriskofbarmahforestvirusdiseaseunderclimatechangescenariosinqueenslandaustralia AT shilutong forecastingthefutureriskofbarmahforestvirusdiseaseunderclimatechangescenariosinqueenslandaustralia
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Forecasting the future risk of Barmah Forest virus disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia.

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