Impacts of land use/land cover and climate changes on soil erosion in Muga watershed, Upper Blue Nile basin (Abay), Ethiopia

Abstract Background Soil erosion is one of the major threats in the Ethiopian highlands. In this study, soil erosion in the Muga watershed of the Upper Blue Nile Basin (Abay) under historical and future climate and land use/land cover (LULC) change was assessed. Future LULC was predicted based on LU...

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Autores principales:	Tatek Belay, Daniel Ayalew Mengistu
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	SpringerOpen 2021
Materias:	Cellular automata–Markov Climate change Impact Land use/land cover Soil erosion Ecology QH540-549.5
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/59f5fa746d1740979a87c5d9e5db7c84
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:59f5fa746d1740979a87c5d9e5db7c842021-11-08T10:44:55ZImpacts of land use/land cover and climate changes on soil erosion in Muga watershed, Upper Blue Nile basin (Abay), Ethiopia10.1186/s13717-021-00339-92192-1709https://doaj.org/article/59f5fa746d1740979a87c5d9e5db7c842021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1186/s13717-021-00339-9https://doaj.org/toc/2192-1709Abstract Background Soil erosion is one of the major threats in the Ethiopian highlands. In this study, soil erosion in the Muga watershed of the Upper Blue Nile Basin (Abay) under historical and future climate and land use/land cover (LULC) change was assessed. Future LULC was predicted based on LULC map of 1985, 2002, and 2017. LULC maps of the historical periods were delineated from Landsat images, and future LULC was predicted using the CA–Markov chain model. Precipitation for the future period was projected from six regional circulation models. The RUSLE model was used to estimate the current and future soil erosion rate in Muga watershed. Results The average annual rate of soil erosion in the study area was increased from about 15 t ha−1 year−1 in 1985 to 19 t ha−1 year−1 in 2002, and 19.7 t ha−1 year−1 in 2017. Expansion of crop cultivation and loss of vegetation caused an increase in soil erosion. Unless proper measure is taken against the LULC changes, the rate of soil loss is expected to increase and reach about 20.7 t ha−1 year−1 in 2033. In the 2050s, soil loss is projected to increase by 9.6% and 11.3% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively, compared with the baseline period. Thus, the soil loss rate is expected to increase under both scenarios due to the higher erosive power of the future intense rainfall. When both LULC and climate changes act together, the mean annual soil loss rate shows a rise of 13.2% and 15.7% in the future under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively, which is due to synergistic effects. Conclusions The results of this study can be useful for formulating proper land use planning and investments to mitigate the adverse effect of LULC on soil loss. Furthermore, climate change will exacerbate the existing soil erosion problem and would need for vigorous proper conservation policies and investments to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change on soil loss.Tatek BelayDaniel Ayalew MengistuSpringerOpenarticleCellular automata–MarkovClimate changeImpactLand use/land coverSoil erosionEcologyQH540-549.5ENEcological Processes, Vol 10, Iss 1, Pp 1-23 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Cellular automata–Markov Climate change Impact Land use/land cover Soil erosion Ecology QH540-549.5
spellingShingle	Cellular automata–Markov Climate change Impact Land use/land cover Soil erosion Ecology QH540-549.5 Tatek Belay Daniel Ayalew Mengistu Impacts of land use/land cover and climate changes on soil erosion in Muga watershed, Upper Blue Nile basin (Abay), Ethiopia
description	Abstract Background Soil erosion is one of the major threats in the Ethiopian highlands. In this study, soil erosion in the Muga watershed of the Upper Blue Nile Basin (Abay) under historical and future climate and land use/land cover (LULC) change was assessed. Future LULC was predicted based on LULC map of 1985, 2002, and 2017. LULC maps of the historical periods were delineated from Landsat images, and future LULC was predicted using the CA–Markov chain model. Precipitation for the future period was projected from six regional circulation models. The RUSLE model was used to estimate the current and future soil erosion rate in Muga watershed. Results The average annual rate of soil erosion in the study area was increased from about 15 t ha−1 year−1 in 1985 to 19 t ha−1 year−1 in 2002, and 19.7 t ha−1 year−1 in 2017. Expansion of crop cultivation and loss of vegetation caused an increase in soil erosion. Unless proper measure is taken against the LULC changes, the rate of soil loss is expected to increase and reach about 20.7 t ha−1 year−1 in 2033. In the 2050s, soil loss is projected to increase by 9.6% and 11.3% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively, compared with the baseline period. Thus, the soil loss rate is expected to increase under both scenarios due to the higher erosive power of the future intense rainfall. When both LULC and climate changes act together, the mean annual soil loss rate shows a rise of 13.2% and 15.7% in the future under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively, which is due to synergistic effects. Conclusions The results of this study can be useful for formulating proper land use planning and investments to mitigate the adverse effect of LULC on soil loss. Furthermore, climate change will exacerbate the existing soil erosion problem and would need for vigorous proper conservation policies and investments to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change on soil loss.
format	article
author	Tatek Belay Daniel Ayalew Mengistu
author_facet	Tatek Belay Daniel Ayalew Mengistu
author_sort	Tatek Belay
title	Impacts of land use/land cover and climate changes on soil erosion in Muga watershed, Upper Blue Nile basin (Abay), Ethiopia
title_short	Impacts of land use/land cover and climate changes on soil erosion in Muga watershed, Upper Blue Nile basin (Abay), Ethiopia
title_full	Impacts of land use/land cover and climate changes on soil erosion in Muga watershed, Upper Blue Nile basin (Abay), Ethiopia
title_fullStr	Impacts of land use/land cover and climate changes on soil erosion in Muga watershed, Upper Blue Nile basin (Abay), Ethiopia
title_full_unstemmed	Impacts of land use/land cover and climate changes on soil erosion in Muga watershed, Upper Blue Nile basin (Abay), Ethiopia
title_sort	impacts of land use/land cover and climate changes on soil erosion in muga watershed, upper blue nile basin (abay), ethiopia
publisher	SpringerOpen
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/59f5fa746d1740979a87c5d9e5db7c84
work_keys_str_mv	AT tatekbelay impactsoflanduselandcoverandclimatechangesonsoilerosioninmugawatershedupperbluenilebasinabayethiopia AT danielayalewmengistu impactsoflanduselandcoverandclimatechangesonsoilerosioninmugawatershedupperbluenilebasinabayethiopia
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Impacts of land use/land cover and climate changes on soil erosion in Muga watershed, Upper Blue Nile basin (Abay), Ethiopia

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