Derivation and Validation of a Mortality Risk Score for Severe Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease in China

Abstract Outbreaks of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) have increased recently, as has the case fatality rate in severe cases. No scoring system currently exists to predict mortality risk for severe HFMD in previous study. We retrospectively collected laboratory parameters for 546 patients with s...

Descripción completa

Guardado en:

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales:	Jun Qiu, Xiulan Lu, Xiao Liu, Ping Zang, Wenjiao Zhao, Pingping Liu, Zhenghui Xiao
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2017
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/5ad1c5521189462bbd3dfae1db6961bb
Etiquetas:	Agregar Etiqueta Sin Etiquetas, Sea el primero en etiquetar este registro!

id	oai:doaj.org-article:5ad1c5521189462bbd3dfae1db6961bb
record_format	dspace
spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:5ad1c5521189462bbd3dfae1db6961bb2021-12-02T11:41:09ZDerivation and Validation of a Mortality Risk Score for Severe Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease in China10.1038/s41598-017-02658-42045-2322https://doaj.org/article/5ad1c5521189462bbd3dfae1db6961bb2017-06-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-02658-4https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Outbreaks of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) have increased recently, as has the case fatality rate in severe cases. No scoring system currently exists to predict mortality risk for severe HFMD in previous study. We retrospectively collected laboratory parameters for 546 patients with severe HFMD (a derivation and a validation cohort) at Hunan Children’s Hospitals between January 2012 and December 2014. We developed a mortality risk score comprising four laboratory parameters: blood glucose (GLU), white blood cells (WBC), lactate (LAC), and N-terminal-probrain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP). Using an “optimal” cutoff score of 4, the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value was 88.00%, 96.14%, 62.86% and 99.08%, respectively, in the derivation cohort. Among severe HFMD patients with low- and high-risk scores in the validation cohort, case fatality rates were 1.49% and 74.07%, respectively. According to the “optimal” cut-off in the derivation cohort, the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value were 80.95%, 93.83%, 62.96% and 97.44%, respectively, in the derivation cohort. The mortality risk score demonstrated good discrimination (AUC > 0.9) and calibration (P > 0.05) in both cohorts. The mortality risk score, comprising WBC, GLU, LAC and NT-proBNP, has been demonstrated good discrimination and calibration in the both cohorts.Jun QiuXiulan LuXiao LiuPing ZangWenjiao ZhaoPingping LiuZhenghui XiaoNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 7, Iss 1, Pp 1-9 (2017)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Jun Qiu Xiulan Lu Xiao Liu Ping Zang Wenjiao Zhao Pingping Liu Zhenghui Xiao Derivation and Validation of a Mortality Risk Score for Severe Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease in China
description	Abstract Outbreaks of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) have increased recently, as has the case fatality rate in severe cases. No scoring system currently exists to predict mortality risk for severe HFMD in previous study. We retrospectively collected laboratory parameters for 546 patients with severe HFMD (a derivation and a validation cohort) at Hunan Children’s Hospitals between January 2012 and December 2014. We developed a mortality risk score comprising four laboratory parameters: blood glucose (GLU), white blood cells (WBC), lactate (LAC), and N-terminal-probrain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP). Using an “optimal” cutoff score of 4, the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value was 88.00%, 96.14%, 62.86% and 99.08%, respectively, in the derivation cohort. Among severe HFMD patients with low- and high-risk scores in the validation cohort, case fatality rates were 1.49% and 74.07%, respectively. According to the “optimal” cut-off in the derivation cohort, the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value were 80.95%, 93.83%, 62.96% and 97.44%, respectively, in the derivation cohort. The mortality risk score demonstrated good discrimination (AUC > 0.9) and calibration (P > 0.05) in both cohorts. The mortality risk score, comprising WBC, GLU, LAC and NT-proBNP, has been demonstrated good discrimination and calibration in the both cohorts.
format	article
author	Jun Qiu Xiulan Lu Xiao Liu Ping Zang Wenjiao Zhao Pingping Liu Zhenghui Xiao
author_facet	Jun Qiu Xiulan Lu Xiao Liu Ping Zang Wenjiao Zhao Pingping Liu Zhenghui Xiao
author_sort	Jun Qiu
title	Derivation and Validation of a Mortality Risk Score for Severe Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease in China
title_short	Derivation and Validation of a Mortality Risk Score for Severe Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease in China
title_full	Derivation and Validation of a Mortality Risk Score for Severe Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease in China
title_fullStr	Derivation and Validation of a Mortality Risk Score for Severe Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease in China
title_full_unstemmed	Derivation and Validation of a Mortality Risk Score for Severe Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease in China
title_sort	derivation and validation of a mortality risk score for severe hand, foot and mouth disease in china
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2017
url	https://doaj.org/article/5ad1c5521189462bbd3dfae1db6961bb
work_keys_str_mv	AT junqiu derivationandvalidationofamortalityriskscoreforseverehandfootandmouthdiseaseinchina AT xiulanlu derivationandvalidationofamortalityriskscoreforseverehandfootandmouthdiseaseinchina AT xiaoliu derivationandvalidationofamortalityriskscoreforseverehandfootandmouthdiseaseinchina AT pingzang derivationandvalidationofamortalityriskscoreforseverehandfootandmouthdiseaseinchina AT wenjiaozhao derivationandvalidationofamortalityriskscoreforseverehandfootandmouthdiseaseinchina AT pingpingliu derivationandvalidationofamortalityriskscoreforseverehandfootandmouthdiseaseinchina AT zhenghuixiao derivationandvalidationofamortalityriskscoreforseverehandfootandmouthdiseaseinchina
_version_	1718395462077120512

Derivation and Validation of a Mortality Risk Score for Severe Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease in China

Ejemplares similares