Constraining Amazonian land surface temperature sensitivity to precipitation and the probability of forest dieback

Abstract The complete or partial collapse of the forests of Amazonia is consistently named as one of the top ten possible tipping points of Planet Earth in a changing climate. However, apart from a few observational studies that showed increased mortality after the severe droughts of 2005 and 2010,...

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Autores principales:	Yuanfang Chai, Guilherme Martins, Carlos Nobre, Celso von Randow, Tiexi Chen, Han Dolman
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/5b3a6c7194024cb78b0ea101008ef118
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:5b3a6c7194024cb78b0ea101008ef1182021-12-02T14:18:14ZConstraining Amazonian land surface temperature sensitivity to precipitation and the probability of forest dieback10.1038/s41612-021-00162-12397-3722https://doaj.org/article/5b3a6c7194024cb78b0ea101008ef1182021-02-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-021-00162-1https://doaj.org/toc/2397-3722Abstract The complete or partial collapse of the forests of Amazonia is consistently named as one of the top ten possible tipping points of Planet Earth in a changing climate. However, apart from a few observational studies that showed increased mortality after the severe droughts of 2005 and 2010, the evidence for such collapse depends primarily on modelling. Such studies are notoriously deficient at predicting the rainfall in the Amazon basin and how the vegetation interacts with the rainfall is poorly represented. Here, we use long-term surface-based observations of the air temperature and rainfall in Amazonia to provide a constraint on the modelled sensitivity of temperature to changes in precipitation. This emergent constraint also allows us to significantly constrain the likelihood of a forest collapse or dieback. We conclude that Amazon dieback under IPCC scenario RCP8.5 (crossing the tipping point) is not likely to occur in the twenty-first century.Yuanfang ChaiGuilherme MartinsCarlos NobreCelso von RandowTiexi ChenHan DolmanNature PortfolioarticleEnvironmental sciencesGE1-350Meteorology. ClimatologyQC851-999ENnpj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Vol 4, Iss 1, Pp 1-7 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999
spellingShingle	Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Yuanfang Chai Guilherme Martins Carlos Nobre Celso von Randow Tiexi Chen Han Dolman Constraining Amazonian land surface temperature sensitivity to precipitation and the probability of forest dieback
description	Abstract The complete or partial collapse of the forests of Amazonia is consistently named as one of the top ten possible tipping points of Planet Earth in a changing climate. However, apart from a few observational studies that showed increased mortality after the severe droughts of 2005 and 2010, the evidence for such collapse depends primarily on modelling. Such studies are notoriously deficient at predicting the rainfall in the Amazon basin and how the vegetation interacts with the rainfall is poorly represented. Here, we use long-term surface-based observations of the air temperature and rainfall in Amazonia to provide a constraint on the modelled sensitivity of temperature to changes in precipitation. This emergent constraint also allows us to significantly constrain the likelihood of a forest collapse or dieback. We conclude that Amazon dieback under IPCC scenario RCP8.5 (crossing the tipping point) is not likely to occur in the twenty-first century.
format	article
author	Yuanfang Chai Guilherme Martins Carlos Nobre Celso von Randow Tiexi Chen Han Dolman
author_facet	Yuanfang Chai Guilherme Martins Carlos Nobre Celso von Randow Tiexi Chen Han Dolman
author_sort	Yuanfang Chai
title	Constraining Amazonian land surface temperature sensitivity to precipitation and the probability of forest dieback
title_short	Constraining Amazonian land surface temperature sensitivity to precipitation and the probability of forest dieback
title_full	Constraining Amazonian land surface temperature sensitivity to precipitation and the probability of forest dieback
title_fullStr	Constraining Amazonian land surface temperature sensitivity to precipitation and the probability of forest dieback
title_full_unstemmed	Constraining Amazonian land surface temperature sensitivity to precipitation and the probability of forest dieback
title_sort	constraining amazonian land surface temperature sensitivity to precipitation and the probability of forest dieback
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/5b3a6c7194024cb78b0ea101008ef118
work_keys_str_mv	AT yuanfangchai constrainingamazonianlandsurfacetemperaturesensitivitytoprecipitationandtheprobabilityofforestdieback AT guilhermemartins constrainingamazonianlandsurfacetemperaturesensitivitytoprecipitationandtheprobabilityofforestdieback AT carlosnobre constrainingamazonianlandsurfacetemperaturesensitivitytoprecipitationandtheprobabilityofforestdieback AT celsovonrandow constrainingamazonianlandsurfacetemperaturesensitivitytoprecipitationandtheprobabilityofforestdieback AT tiexichen constrainingamazonianlandsurfacetemperaturesensitivitytoprecipitationandtheprobabilityofforestdieback AT handolman constrainingamazonianlandsurfacetemperaturesensitivitytoprecipitationandtheprobabilityofforestdieback
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Constraining Amazonian land surface temperature sensitivity to precipitation and the probability of forest dieback

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