Effects of infection on honey bee population dynamics: a model.

We propose a model that combines the dynamics of the spread of disease within a bee colony with the underlying demographic dynamics of the colony to determine the ultimate fate of the colony under different scenarios. The model suggests that key factors in the survival or collapse of a honey bee col...

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Autores principales:	Matt I Betti, Lindi M Wahl, Mair Zamir
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2014
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/5baa53ff93784d4a9eceb0797c0ef2cb
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:5baa53ff93784d4a9eceb0797c0ef2cb2021-11-25T05:56:21ZEffects of infection on honey bee population dynamics: a model.1932-620310.1371/journal.pone.0110237https://doaj.org/article/5baa53ff93784d4a9eceb0797c0ef2cb2014-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0110237https://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203We propose a model that combines the dynamics of the spread of disease within a bee colony with the underlying demographic dynamics of the colony to determine the ultimate fate of the colony under different scenarios. The model suggests that key factors in the survival or collapse of a honey bee colony in the face of an infection are the rate of transmission of the infection and the disease-induced death rate. An increase in the disease-induced death rate, which can be thought of as an increase in the severity of the disease, may actually help the colony overcome the disease and survive through winter. By contrast, an increase in the transmission rate, which means that bees are being infected at an earlier age, has a drastic deleterious effect. Another important finding relates to the timing of infection in relation to the onset of winter, indicating that in a time interval of approximately 20 days before the onset of winter the colony is most affected by the onset of infection. The results suggest further that the age of recruitment of hive bees to foraging duties is a good early marker for the survival or collapse of a honey bee colony in the face of infection, which is consistent with experimental evidence but the model provides insight into the underlying mechanisms. The most important result of the study is a clear distinction between an exposure of the honey bee colony to an environmental hazard such as pesticides or insecticides, or an exposure to an infectious disease. The results indicate unequivocally that in the scenarios that we have examined, and perhaps more generally, an infectious disease is far more hazardous to the survival of a bee colony than an environmental hazard that causes an equal death rate in foraging bees.Matt I BettiLindi M WahlMair ZamirPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleMedicineRScienceQENPLoS ONE, Vol 9, Iss 10, p e110237 (2014)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Matt I Betti Lindi M Wahl Mair Zamir Effects of infection on honey bee population dynamics: a model.
description	We propose a model that combines the dynamics of the spread of disease within a bee colony with the underlying demographic dynamics of the colony to determine the ultimate fate of the colony under different scenarios. The model suggests that key factors in the survival or collapse of a honey bee colony in the face of an infection are the rate of transmission of the infection and the disease-induced death rate. An increase in the disease-induced death rate, which can be thought of as an increase in the severity of the disease, may actually help the colony overcome the disease and survive through winter. By contrast, an increase in the transmission rate, which means that bees are being infected at an earlier age, has a drastic deleterious effect. Another important finding relates to the timing of infection in relation to the onset of winter, indicating that in a time interval of approximately 20 days before the onset of winter the colony is most affected by the onset of infection. The results suggest further that the age of recruitment of hive bees to foraging duties is a good early marker for the survival or collapse of a honey bee colony in the face of infection, which is consistent with experimental evidence but the model provides insight into the underlying mechanisms. The most important result of the study is a clear distinction between an exposure of the honey bee colony to an environmental hazard such as pesticides or insecticides, or an exposure to an infectious disease. The results indicate unequivocally that in the scenarios that we have examined, and perhaps more generally, an infectious disease is far more hazardous to the survival of a bee colony than an environmental hazard that causes an equal death rate in foraging bees.
format	article
author	Matt I Betti Lindi M Wahl Mair Zamir
author_facet	Matt I Betti Lindi M Wahl Mair Zamir
author_sort	Matt I Betti
title	Effects of infection on honey bee population dynamics: a model.
title_short	Effects of infection on honey bee population dynamics: a model.
title_full	Effects of infection on honey bee population dynamics: a model.
title_fullStr	Effects of infection on honey bee population dynamics: a model.
title_full_unstemmed	Effects of infection on honey bee population dynamics: a model.
title_sort	effects of infection on honey bee population dynamics: a model.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2014
url	https://doaj.org/article/5baa53ff93784d4a9eceb0797c0ef2cb
work_keys_str_mv	AT mattibetti effectsofinfectiononhoneybeepopulationdynamicsamodel AT lindimwahl effectsofinfectiononhoneybeepopulationdynamicsamodel AT mairzamir effectsofinfectiononhoneybeepopulationdynamicsamodel
_version_	1718414339854041088

Effects of infection on honey bee population dynamics: a model.

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