Improving estimation of Parkinson’s disease risk—the enhanced PREDICT-PD algorithm

Abstract We previously reported a basic algorithm to identify the risk of Parkinson’s disease (PD) using published data on risk factors and prodromal features. Using this algorithm, the PREDICT-PD study identified individuals at increased risk of PD and used tapping speed, hyposmia and REM sleep beh...

Descripción completa

Guardado en:

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales:	Jonathan P. Bestwick, Stephen D. Auger, Cristina Simonet, Richard N. Rees, Daniel Rack, Mark Jitlal, Gavin Giovannoni, Andrew J. Lees, Jack Cuzick, Anette E. Schrag, Alastair J. Noyce
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Neurology. Diseases of the nervous system RC346-429
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/5c7b9a10084b4062b722e9cd99916963
Etiquetas:	Agregar Etiqueta Sin Etiquetas, Sea el primero en etiquetar este registro!

id	oai:doaj.org-article:5c7b9a10084b4062b722e9cd99916963
record_format	dspace
spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:5c7b9a10084b4062b722e9cd999169632021-12-02T13:26:37ZImproving estimation of Parkinson’s disease risk—the enhanced PREDICT-PD algorithm10.1038/s41531-021-00176-92373-8057https://doaj.org/article/5c7b9a10084b4062b722e9cd999169632021-04-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41531-021-00176-9https://doaj.org/toc/2373-8057Abstract We previously reported a basic algorithm to identify the risk of Parkinson’s disease (PD) using published data on risk factors and prodromal features. Using this algorithm, the PREDICT-PD study identified individuals at increased risk of PD and used tapping speed, hyposmia and REM sleep behaviour disorder (RBD) as “intermediate” markers of prodromal PD in the absence of sufficient incident cases. We have now developed and tested an enhanced algorithm which incorporates the intermediate markers into the risk model. Risk estimates were compared using the enhanced and the basic algorithm in members of the PREDICT-PD pilot cohort. The enhanced PREDICT-PD algorithm yielded a much greater range of risk estimates than the basic algorithm (93–609-fold difference between the 10th and 90th centiles vs 10–13-fold respectively). There was a greater increase in the risk of PD with increasing risk scores for the enhanced algorithm than for the basic algorithm (hazard ratios per one standard deviation increase in log risk of 2.75 [95% CI 1.68–4.50; p < 0.001] versus 1.47 [95% CI 0.86–2.51; p = 0.16] respectively). Estimates from the enhanced algorithm also correlated more closely with subclinical striatal DaT-SPECT dopamine depletion (R 2 = 0.164, p = 0.005 vs R 2 = 0.043, p = 0.17). Incorporating the previous intermediate markers of prodromal PD and using likelihood ratios improved the accuracy of the PREDICT-PD prediction algorithm.Jonathan P. BestwickStephen D. AugerCristina SimonetRichard N. ReesDaniel RackMark JitlalGavin GiovannoniAndrew J. LeesJack CuzickAnette E. SchragAlastair J. NoyceNature PortfolioarticleNeurology. Diseases of the nervous systemRC346-429ENnpj Parkinson's Disease, Vol 7, Iss 1, Pp 1-7 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Neurology. Diseases of the nervous system RC346-429
spellingShingle	Neurology. Diseases of the nervous system RC346-429 Jonathan P. Bestwick Stephen D. Auger Cristina Simonet Richard N. Rees Daniel Rack Mark Jitlal Gavin Giovannoni Andrew J. Lees Jack Cuzick Anette E. Schrag Alastair J. Noyce Improving estimation of Parkinson’s disease risk—the enhanced PREDICT-PD algorithm
description	Abstract We previously reported a basic algorithm to identify the risk of Parkinson’s disease (PD) using published data on risk factors and prodromal features. Using this algorithm, the PREDICT-PD study identified individuals at increased risk of PD and used tapping speed, hyposmia and REM sleep behaviour disorder (RBD) as “intermediate” markers of prodromal PD in the absence of sufficient incident cases. We have now developed and tested an enhanced algorithm which incorporates the intermediate markers into the risk model. Risk estimates were compared using the enhanced and the basic algorithm in members of the PREDICT-PD pilot cohort. The enhanced PREDICT-PD algorithm yielded a much greater range of risk estimates than the basic algorithm (93–609-fold difference between the 10th and 90th centiles vs 10–13-fold respectively). There was a greater increase in the risk of PD with increasing risk scores for the enhanced algorithm than for the basic algorithm (hazard ratios per one standard deviation increase in log risk of 2.75 [95% CI 1.68–4.50; p < 0.001] versus 1.47 [95% CI 0.86–2.51; p = 0.16] respectively). Estimates from the enhanced algorithm also correlated more closely with subclinical striatal DaT-SPECT dopamine depletion (R 2 = 0.164, p = 0.005 vs R 2 = 0.043, p = 0.17). Incorporating the previous intermediate markers of prodromal PD and using likelihood ratios improved the accuracy of the PREDICT-PD prediction algorithm.
format	article
author	Jonathan P. Bestwick Stephen D. Auger Cristina Simonet Richard N. Rees Daniel Rack Mark Jitlal Gavin Giovannoni Andrew J. Lees Jack Cuzick Anette E. Schrag Alastair J. Noyce
author_facet	Jonathan P. Bestwick Stephen D. Auger Cristina Simonet Richard N. Rees Daniel Rack Mark Jitlal Gavin Giovannoni Andrew J. Lees Jack Cuzick Anette E. Schrag Alastair J. Noyce
author_sort	Jonathan P. Bestwick
title	Improving estimation of Parkinson’s disease risk—the enhanced PREDICT-PD algorithm
title_short	Improving estimation of Parkinson’s disease risk—the enhanced PREDICT-PD algorithm
title_full	Improving estimation of Parkinson’s disease risk—the enhanced PREDICT-PD algorithm
title_fullStr	Improving estimation of Parkinson’s disease risk—the enhanced PREDICT-PD algorithm
title_full_unstemmed	Improving estimation of Parkinson’s disease risk—the enhanced PREDICT-PD algorithm
title_sort	improving estimation of parkinson’s disease risk—the enhanced predict-pd algorithm
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/5c7b9a10084b4062b722e9cd99916963
work_keys_str_mv	AT jonathanpbestwick improvingestimationofparkinsonsdiseaserisktheenhancedpredictpdalgorithm AT stephendauger improvingestimationofparkinsonsdiseaserisktheenhancedpredictpdalgorithm AT cristinasimonet improvingestimationofparkinsonsdiseaserisktheenhancedpredictpdalgorithm AT richardnrees improvingestimationofparkinsonsdiseaserisktheenhancedpredictpdalgorithm AT danielrack improvingestimationofparkinsonsdiseaserisktheenhancedpredictpdalgorithm AT markjitlal improvingestimationofparkinsonsdiseaserisktheenhancedpredictpdalgorithm AT gavingiovannoni improvingestimationofparkinsonsdiseaserisktheenhancedpredictpdalgorithm AT andrewjlees improvingestimationofparkinsonsdiseaserisktheenhancedpredictpdalgorithm AT jackcuzick improvingestimationofparkinsonsdiseaserisktheenhancedpredictpdalgorithm AT anetteeschrag improvingestimationofparkinsonsdiseaserisktheenhancedpredictpdalgorithm AT alastairjnoyce improvingestimationofparkinsonsdiseaserisktheenhancedpredictpdalgorithm
_version_	1718393032007483392

Improving estimation of Parkinson’s disease risk—the enhanced PREDICT-PD algorithm

Ejemplares similares