Challenges in modelling the dynamics of infectious diseases at the wildlife–human interface

The Covid-19 pandemic is of zoonotic origin, and many other emerging infections of humans have their origin in an animal host population. We review the challenges involved in modelling the dynamics of wildlife–human interfaces governing infectious disease emergence and spread. We argue that we need...

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Autores principales:	Mick Roberts, Andrew Dobson, Olivier Restif, Konstans Wells
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Elsevier 2021
Materias:	Ecological dynamics Zoonoses Spillover Climate change Ecological invasions Infectious and parasitic diseases RC109-216
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/5c84ac0bfd774f30a583df3b3f1cb9f3
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id	oai:doaj.org-article:5c84ac0bfd774f30a583df3b3f1cb9f3
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:5c84ac0bfd774f30a583df3b3f1cb9f32021-12-02T05:00:13ZChallenges in modelling the dynamics of infectious diseases at the wildlife–human interface1755-436510.1016/j.epidem.2021.100523https://doaj.org/article/5c84ac0bfd774f30a583df3b3f1cb9f32021-12-01T00:00:00Zhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1755436521000682https://doaj.org/toc/1755-4365The Covid-19 pandemic is of zoonotic origin, and many other emerging infections of humans have their origin in an animal host population. We review the challenges involved in modelling the dynamics of wildlife–human interfaces governing infectious disease emergence and spread. We argue that we need a better understanding of the dynamic nature of such interfaces, the underpinning diversity of pathogens and host–pathogen association networks, and the scales and frequencies at which environmental conditions enable spillover and host shifting from animals to humans to occur. The major drivers of the emergence of zoonoses are anthropogenic, including the global change in climate and land use. These, and other ecological processes pose challenges that must be overcome to counterbalance pandemic risk. The development of more detailed and nuanced models will provide better tools for analysing and understanding infectious disease emergence and spread.Mick RobertsAndrew DobsonOlivier RestifKonstans WellsElsevierarticleEcological dynamicsZoonosesSpilloverClimate changeEcological invasionsInfectious and parasitic diseasesRC109-216ENEpidemics, Vol 37, Iss , Pp 100523- (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Ecological dynamics Zoonoses Spillover Climate change Ecological invasions Infectious and parasitic diseases RC109-216
spellingShingle	Ecological dynamics Zoonoses Spillover Climate change Ecological invasions Infectious and parasitic diseases RC109-216 Mick Roberts Andrew Dobson Olivier Restif Konstans Wells Challenges in modelling the dynamics of infectious diseases at the wildlife–human interface
description	The Covid-19 pandemic is of zoonotic origin, and many other emerging infections of humans have their origin in an animal host population. We review the challenges involved in modelling the dynamics of wildlife–human interfaces governing infectious disease emergence and spread. We argue that we need a better understanding of the dynamic nature of such interfaces, the underpinning diversity of pathogens and host–pathogen association networks, and the scales and frequencies at which environmental conditions enable spillover and host shifting from animals to humans to occur. The major drivers of the emergence of zoonoses are anthropogenic, including the global change in climate and land use. These, and other ecological processes pose challenges that must be overcome to counterbalance pandemic risk. The development of more detailed and nuanced models will provide better tools for analysing and understanding infectious disease emergence and spread.
format	article
author	Mick Roberts Andrew Dobson Olivier Restif Konstans Wells
author_facet	Mick Roberts Andrew Dobson Olivier Restif Konstans Wells
author_sort	Mick Roberts
title	Challenges in modelling the dynamics of infectious diseases at the wildlife–human interface
title_short	Challenges in modelling the dynamics of infectious diseases at the wildlife–human interface
title_full	Challenges in modelling the dynamics of infectious diseases at the wildlife–human interface
title_fullStr	Challenges in modelling the dynamics of infectious diseases at the wildlife–human interface
title_full_unstemmed	Challenges in modelling the dynamics of infectious diseases at the wildlife–human interface
title_sort	challenges in modelling the dynamics of infectious diseases at the wildlife–human interface
publisher	Elsevier
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/5c84ac0bfd774f30a583df3b3f1cb9f3
work_keys_str_mv	AT mickroberts challengesinmodellingthedynamicsofinfectiousdiseasesatthewildlifehumaninterface AT andrewdobson challengesinmodellingthedynamicsofinfectiousdiseasesatthewildlifehumaninterface AT olivierrestif challengesinmodellingthedynamicsofinfectiousdiseasesatthewildlifehumaninterface AT konstanswells challengesinmodellingthedynamicsofinfectiousdiseasesatthewildlifehumaninterface
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Challenges in modelling the dynamics of infectious diseases at the wildlife–human interface

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