Quantifying changes and drivers of runoff in the Kaidu River Basin associated with plausible climate scenarios

Study region: The Kaidu River Basin (KRB) is located on the central southern slope of the Tianshan Mountain in Northwest China. Study focus: This work aimed to assess changes and main drivers of snowmelt-driven runoff in KRB associated with three future climate scenarios. Six versions of the '&...

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Autores principales:	Bingqian Zhao, Huaiwei Sun, Dong Yan, Guanghui Wei, Ye Tuo, Wenxin Zhang
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Elsevier 2021
Materias:	Snowmelt timing ISIMIP2b Tarim River Basin Hydrological modeling China Physical geography GB3-5030 Geology QE1-996.5
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/5cbc8b89427b4a038964dba89bf14619
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:5cbc8b89427b4a038964dba89bf146192021-11-18T04:49:02ZQuantifying changes and drivers of runoff in the Kaidu River Basin associated with plausible climate scenarios2214-581810.1016/j.ejrh.2021.100968https://doaj.org/article/5cbc8b89427b4a038964dba89bf146192021-12-01T00:00:00Zhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S221458182100197Xhttps://doaj.org/toc/2214-5818Study region: The Kaidu River Basin (KRB) is located on the central southern slope of the Tianshan Mountain in Northwest China. Study focus: This work aimed to assess changes and main drivers of snowmelt-driven runoff in KRB associated with three future climate scenarios. Six versions of the ''Cemaneige'' snowmelt module embedded in the hydrological model ''GR4J'' were calibrated and evaluated. The bias-corrected climate datasets from CMIP5 Models were used to drive the optimal snowmelt-hydrological model for runoff prediction. The factors that lead to runoff variations were also assessed. New hydrological insights: The significant declining trends of runoff were only predicted in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The declining trends of runoff were found in all the seasons. For the annual and summer runoff, compared to the historical period, both the RCP2.6 and RCP 4.5 periods showed a decline in the mid-century and a rise in the end-century; however, RCP8.5 showed a continuous decline during this period. Precipitation and evapotranspiration were ranked as the two most important factors regulating future runoff variations in all RCPs. In contrast, snowmelt timing is the second factor in the historical period, and its importance decreases in the warmer RCP scenarios. These results highlighted that the importance of snowmelt and snowmelt timing to the future runoff depends on the runoff responses to the trajectory of future changes in temperature and precipitation.Bingqian ZhaoHuaiwei SunDong YanGuanghui WeiYe TuoWenxin ZhangElsevierarticleSnowmelt timingISIMIP2bTarim River BasinHydrological modelingChinaPhysical geographyGB3-5030GeologyQE1-996.5ENJournal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, Vol 38, Iss , Pp 100968- (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Snowmelt timing ISIMIP2b Tarim River Basin Hydrological modeling China Physical geography GB3-5030 Geology QE1-996.5
spellingShingle	Snowmelt timing ISIMIP2b Tarim River Basin Hydrological modeling China Physical geography GB3-5030 Geology QE1-996.5 Bingqian Zhao Huaiwei Sun Dong Yan Guanghui Wei Ye Tuo Wenxin Zhang Quantifying changes and drivers of runoff in the Kaidu River Basin associated with plausible climate scenarios
description	Study region: The Kaidu River Basin (KRB) is located on the central southern slope of the Tianshan Mountain in Northwest China. Study focus: This work aimed to assess changes and main drivers of snowmelt-driven runoff in KRB associated with three future climate scenarios. Six versions of the ''Cemaneige'' snowmelt module embedded in the hydrological model ''GR4J'' were calibrated and evaluated. The bias-corrected climate datasets from CMIP5 Models were used to drive the optimal snowmelt-hydrological model for runoff prediction. The factors that lead to runoff variations were also assessed. New hydrological insights: The significant declining trends of runoff were only predicted in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The declining trends of runoff were found in all the seasons. For the annual and summer runoff, compared to the historical period, both the RCP2.6 and RCP 4.5 periods showed a decline in the mid-century and a rise in the end-century; however, RCP8.5 showed a continuous decline during this period. Precipitation and evapotranspiration were ranked as the two most important factors regulating future runoff variations in all RCPs. In contrast, snowmelt timing is the second factor in the historical period, and its importance decreases in the warmer RCP scenarios. These results highlighted that the importance of snowmelt and snowmelt timing to the future runoff depends on the runoff responses to the trajectory of future changes in temperature and precipitation.
format	article
author	Bingqian Zhao Huaiwei Sun Dong Yan Guanghui Wei Ye Tuo Wenxin Zhang
author_facet	Bingqian Zhao Huaiwei Sun Dong Yan Guanghui Wei Ye Tuo Wenxin Zhang
author_sort	Bingqian Zhao
title	Quantifying changes and drivers of runoff in the Kaidu River Basin associated with plausible climate scenarios
title_short	Quantifying changes and drivers of runoff in the Kaidu River Basin associated with plausible climate scenarios
title_full	Quantifying changes and drivers of runoff in the Kaidu River Basin associated with plausible climate scenarios
title_fullStr	Quantifying changes and drivers of runoff in the Kaidu River Basin associated with plausible climate scenarios
title_full_unstemmed	Quantifying changes and drivers of runoff in the Kaidu River Basin associated with plausible climate scenarios
title_sort	quantifying changes and drivers of runoff in the kaidu river basin associated with plausible climate scenarios
publisher	Elsevier
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/5cbc8b89427b4a038964dba89bf14619
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Quantifying changes and drivers of runoff in the Kaidu River Basin associated with plausible climate scenarios

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