Future rice farming threatened by drought in the Lower Mekong Basin

Abstract The Lower Mekong River basin (LMB) has experienced droughts in recent decades, causing detrimental economic losses and food security conundrums. This study quantified the impact of climate change on drought, and rainfed rice production in the LMB. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) a...

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Autores principales:	Hyunwoo Kang, Venkataramana Sridhar, Mohammed Mainuddin, Le Duc Trung
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/5cccf65ca5f44b7e97813cac42e316dc
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:5cccf65ca5f44b7e97813cac42e316dc2021-12-02T17:16:05ZFuture rice farming threatened by drought in the Lower Mekong Basin10.1038/s41598-021-88405-22045-2322https://doaj.org/article/5cccf65ca5f44b7e97813cac42e316dc2021-04-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-88405-2https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract The Lower Mekong River basin (LMB) has experienced droughts in recent decades, causing detrimental economic losses and food security conundrums. This study quantified the impact of climate change on drought, and rainfed rice production in the LMB. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and AquaCrop models were used to evaluate long-term drought indices and rainfed rice yields under historical and future climate conditions (1954–2099) with four climate models and two emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP8.5) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). We found that rice yield might increase (24–43%) due to the elevated levels of atmospheric CO2 concentration (+ 34.3 to + 121.9%) and increases in precipitation. Contrastingly, considerable decreases in rice yield up to 1.5 ton/ha in the Vietnam Central High Plain (VCHP) region could be expected resulting from reduced precipitation by about 34% during drought years. To avert any major food crisis, an expansion of irrigation areas could be required to compensate for the expected reduction in rice yields. We conclude that a framework combining hydrology and crop models to assess climate change impacts on food production is key to develop adaptation strategies in the future.Hyunwoo KangVenkataramana SridharMohammed MainuddinLe Duc TrungNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-15 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Hyunwoo Kang Venkataramana Sridhar Mohammed Mainuddin Le Duc Trung Future rice farming threatened by drought in the Lower Mekong Basin
description	Abstract The Lower Mekong River basin (LMB) has experienced droughts in recent decades, causing detrimental economic losses and food security conundrums. This study quantified the impact of climate change on drought, and rainfed rice production in the LMB. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and AquaCrop models were used to evaluate long-term drought indices and rainfed rice yields under historical and future climate conditions (1954–2099) with four climate models and two emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP8.5) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). We found that rice yield might increase (24–43%) due to the elevated levels of atmospheric CO2 concentration (+ 34.3 to + 121.9%) and increases in precipitation. Contrastingly, considerable decreases in rice yield up to 1.5 ton/ha in the Vietnam Central High Plain (VCHP) region could be expected resulting from reduced precipitation by about 34% during drought years. To avert any major food crisis, an expansion of irrigation areas could be required to compensate for the expected reduction in rice yields. We conclude that a framework combining hydrology and crop models to assess climate change impacts on food production is key to develop adaptation strategies in the future.
format	article
author	Hyunwoo Kang Venkataramana Sridhar Mohammed Mainuddin Le Duc Trung
author_facet	Hyunwoo Kang Venkataramana Sridhar Mohammed Mainuddin Le Duc Trung
author_sort	Hyunwoo Kang
title	Future rice farming threatened by drought in the Lower Mekong Basin
title_short	Future rice farming threatened by drought in the Lower Mekong Basin
title_full	Future rice farming threatened by drought in the Lower Mekong Basin
title_fullStr	Future rice farming threatened by drought in the Lower Mekong Basin
title_full_unstemmed	Future rice farming threatened by drought in the Lower Mekong Basin
title_sort	future rice farming threatened by drought in the lower mekong basin
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/5cccf65ca5f44b7e97813cac42e316dc
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Future rice farming threatened by drought in the Lower Mekong Basin

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