Impacts of Climate Change on the Precipitation and Streamflow Regimes in Equatorial Regions: Guayas River Basin

The effects of climate change projected for 2050 to 2079 relative to the 1968–2014 reference period were evaluated using 39 CMIP5 models under the RCP8.5 emissions scenario in the Guayas River basin. The monthly normalized precipitation index (SPI) was used in this study to assess the impact of clim...

Descripción completa

Guardado en:

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales:	Mercy Ilbay-Yupa, Franklin Ilbay, Ricardo Zubieta, Mario García-Mora, Paolo Chasi
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	MDPI AG 2021
Materias:	climate change droughts Guayas Ecuador impacts Hydraulic engineering TC1-978 Water supply for domestic and industrial purposes TD201-500
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/5d8e0e5526ca43b49cd700de24fe8055
Etiquetas:	Agregar Etiqueta Sin Etiquetas, Sea el primero en etiquetar este registro!

id	oai:doaj.org-article:5d8e0e5526ca43b49cd700de24fe8055
record_format	dspace
spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:5d8e0e5526ca43b49cd700de24fe80552021-11-11T19:58:26ZImpacts of Climate Change on the Precipitation and Streamflow Regimes in Equatorial Regions: Guayas River Basin10.3390/w132131382073-4441https://doaj.org/article/5d8e0e5526ca43b49cd700de24fe80552021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/13/21/3138https://doaj.org/toc/2073-4441The effects of climate change projected for 2050 to 2079 relative to the 1968–2014 reference period were evaluated using 39 CMIP5 models under the RCP8.5 emissions scenario in the Guayas River basin. The monthly normalized precipitation index (SPI) was used in this study to assess the impact of climate change for wet events and droughts from a meteorological perspective. The GR2M model was used to project changes in the streamflow of the Daule River. The climate projection was based on the four rigorously selected models to represent the climate of the study area. On average, an increase in temperature (~2 °C) and precipitation (~6%) is expected. A 7% increase in precipitation would result in a 10% increase in streamflow for flood periods, while an 8% decrease in precipitation could result in approximately a 60% reduction in flow for dry periods. The analysis of droughts shows that they will be more frequent and prolonged in the highlands (Andes) and the middle part of the basin. In the future, wet periods will be less frequent but of greater duration and intensity on the Ecuadorian coast. These results point to future problems such as water deficit in the dry season but also increased streamflow for floods during the wet season. This information should be taken into account in designing strategies for adaptation to climate change.Mercy Ilbay-YupaFranklin IlbayRicardo ZubietaMario García-MoraPaolo ChasiMDPI AGarticleclimate changedroughtsGuayasEcuadorimpactsHydraulic engineeringTC1-978Water supply for domestic and industrial purposesTD201-500ENWater, Vol 13, Iss 3138, p 3138 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	climate change droughts Guayas Ecuador impacts Hydraulic engineering TC1-978 Water supply for domestic and industrial purposes TD201-500
spellingShingle	climate change droughts Guayas Ecuador impacts Hydraulic engineering TC1-978 Water supply for domestic and industrial purposes TD201-500 Mercy Ilbay-Yupa Franklin Ilbay Ricardo Zubieta Mario García-Mora Paolo Chasi Impacts of Climate Change on the Precipitation and Streamflow Regimes in Equatorial Regions: Guayas River Basin
description	The effects of climate change projected for 2050 to 2079 relative to the 1968–2014 reference period were evaluated using 39 CMIP5 models under the RCP8.5 emissions scenario in the Guayas River basin. The monthly normalized precipitation index (SPI) was used in this study to assess the impact of climate change for wet events and droughts from a meteorological perspective. The GR2M model was used to project changes in the streamflow of the Daule River. The climate projection was based on the four rigorously selected models to represent the climate of the study area. On average, an increase in temperature (~2 °C) and precipitation (~6%) is expected. A 7% increase in precipitation would result in a 10% increase in streamflow for flood periods, while an 8% decrease in precipitation could result in approximately a 60% reduction in flow for dry periods. The analysis of droughts shows that they will be more frequent and prolonged in the highlands (Andes) and the middle part of the basin. In the future, wet periods will be less frequent but of greater duration and intensity on the Ecuadorian coast. These results point to future problems such as water deficit in the dry season but also increased streamflow for floods during the wet season. This information should be taken into account in designing strategies for adaptation to climate change.
format	article
author	Mercy Ilbay-Yupa Franklin Ilbay Ricardo Zubieta Mario García-Mora Paolo Chasi
author_facet	Mercy Ilbay-Yupa Franklin Ilbay Ricardo Zubieta Mario García-Mora Paolo Chasi
author_sort	Mercy Ilbay-Yupa
title	Impacts of Climate Change on the Precipitation and Streamflow Regimes in Equatorial Regions: Guayas River Basin
title_short	Impacts of Climate Change on the Precipitation and Streamflow Regimes in Equatorial Regions: Guayas River Basin
title_full	Impacts of Climate Change on the Precipitation and Streamflow Regimes in Equatorial Regions: Guayas River Basin
title_fullStr	Impacts of Climate Change on the Precipitation and Streamflow Regimes in Equatorial Regions: Guayas River Basin
title_full_unstemmed	Impacts of Climate Change on the Precipitation and Streamflow Regimes in Equatorial Regions: Guayas River Basin
title_sort	impacts of climate change on the precipitation and streamflow regimes in equatorial regions: guayas river basin
publisher	MDPI AG
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/5d8e0e5526ca43b49cd700de24fe8055
work_keys_str_mv	AT mercyilbayyupa impactsofclimatechangeontheprecipitationandstreamflowregimesinequatorialregionsguayasriverbasin AT franklinilbay impactsofclimatechangeontheprecipitationandstreamflowregimesinequatorialregionsguayasriverbasin AT ricardozubieta impactsofclimatechangeontheprecipitationandstreamflowregimesinequatorialregionsguayasriverbasin AT mariogarciamora impactsofclimatechangeontheprecipitationandstreamflowregimesinequatorialregionsguayasriverbasin AT paolochasi impactsofclimatechangeontheprecipitationandstreamflowregimesinequatorialregionsguayasriverbasin
_version_	1718431351095427072

Impacts of Climate Change on the Precipitation and Streamflow Regimes in Equatorial Regions: Guayas River Basin

Ejemplares similares