Does the data tell the true story? A modelling assessment of early COVID-19 pandemic suppression and mitigation strategies in Ghana

This paper uses publicly available data and various statistical models to estimate the basic reproduction number (R0) and other disease parameters for Ghana’s early COVID-19 pandemic outbreak. We also test the effectiveness of government imposition of public health measures to reduce the risk of tra...

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Autores principales:	Nana Kena Frempong, Theophilus Acheampong, Ofosuhene O. Apenteng, Emmanuel Nakua, John H. Amuasi
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/5d9017546f5a432eb19f41351e4f4278
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:5d9017546f5a432eb19f41351e4f42782021-11-04T07:42:08ZDoes the data tell the true story? A modelling assessment of early COVID-19 pandemic suppression and mitigation strategies in Ghana1932-6203https://doaj.org/article/5d9017546f5a432eb19f41351e4f42782021-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8555807/?tool=EBIhttps://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203This paper uses publicly available data and various statistical models to estimate the basic reproduction number (R0) and other disease parameters for Ghana’s early COVID-19 pandemic outbreak. We also test the effectiveness of government imposition of public health measures to reduce the risk of transmission and impact of the pandemic, especially in the early phase. R0 is estimated from the statistical model as 3.21 using a 0.147 estimated growth rate [95% C.I.: 0.137–0.157] and a 15-day time to recovery after COVID-19 infection. This estimate of the initial R0 is consistent with others reported in the literature from other parts of Africa, China and Europe. Our results also indicate that COVID-19 transmission reduced consistently in Ghana after the imposition of public health interventions—such as border restrictions, intra-city movement, quarantine and isolation—during the first phase of the pandemic from March to May 2020. However, the time-dependent reproduction number (Rt) beyond mid-May 2020 does not represent the true situation, given that there was not a consistent testing regime in place. This is also confirmed by our Jack-knife bootstrap estimates which show that the positivity rate over-estimates the true incidence rate from mid-May 2020. Given concerns about virus mutations, delays in vaccination and a possible new wave of the pandemic, there is a need for systematic testing of a representative sample of the population to monitor the reproduction number. There is also an urgent need to increase the availability of testing for the general population to enable early detection, isolation and treatment of infected individuals to reduce progression to severe disease and mortality.Nana Kena FrempongTheophilus AcheampongOfosuhene O. ApentengEmmanuel NakuaJohn H. AmuasiPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleMedicineRScienceQENPLoS ONE, Vol 16, Iss 10 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Nana Kena Frempong Theophilus Acheampong Ofosuhene O. Apenteng Emmanuel Nakua John H. Amuasi Does the data tell the true story? A modelling assessment of early COVID-19 pandemic suppression and mitigation strategies in Ghana
description	This paper uses publicly available data and various statistical models to estimate the basic reproduction number (R0) and other disease parameters for Ghana’s early COVID-19 pandemic outbreak. We also test the effectiveness of government imposition of public health measures to reduce the risk of transmission and impact of the pandemic, especially in the early phase. R0 is estimated from the statistical model as 3.21 using a 0.147 estimated growth rate [95% C.I.: 0.137–0.157] and a 15-day time to recovery after COVID-19 infection. This estimate of the initial R0 is consistent with others reported in the literature from other parts of Africa, China and Europe. Our results also indicate that COVID-19 transmission reduced consistently in Ghana after the imposition of public health interventions—such as border restrictions, intra-city movement, quarantine and isolation—during the first phase of the pandemic from March to May 2020. However, the time-dependent reproduction number (Rt) beyond mid-May 2020 does not represent the true situation, given that there was not a consistent testing regime in place. This is also confirmed by our Jack-knife bootstrap estimates which show that the positivity rate over-estimates the true incidence rate from mid-May 2020. Given concerns about virus mutations, delays in vaccination and a possible new wave of the pandemic, there is a need for systematic testing of a representative sample of the population to monitor the reproduction number. There is also an urgent need to increase the availability of testing for the general population to enable early detection, isolation and treatment of infected individuals to reduce progression to severe disease and mortality.
format	article
author	Nana Kena Frempong Theophilus Acheampong Ofosuhene O. Apenteng Emmanuel Nakua John H. Amuasi
author_facet	Nana Kena Frempong Theophilus Acheampong Ofosuhene O. Apenteng Emmanuel Nakua John H. Amuasi
author_sort	Nana Kena Frempong
title	Does the data tell the true story? A modelling assessment of early COVID-19 pandemic suppression and mitigation strategies in Ghana
title_short	Does the data tell the true story? A modelling assessment of early COVID-19 pandemic suppression and mitigation strategies in Ghana
title_full	Does the data tell the true story? A modelling assessment of early COVID-19 pandemic suppression and mitigation strategies in Ghana
title_fullStr	Does the data tell the true story? A modelling assessment of early COVID-19 pandemic suppression and mitigation strategies in Ghana
title_full_unstemmed	Does the data tell the true story? A modelling assessment of early COVID-19 pandemic suppression and mitigation strategies in Ghana
title_sort	does the data tell the true story? a modelling assessment of early covid-19 pandemic suppression and mitigation strategies in ghana
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/5d9017546f5a432eb19f41351e4f4278
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Does the data tell the true story? A modelling assessment of early COVID-19 pandemic suppression and mitigation strategies in Ghana

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