Hydrological projections in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River Basin from 2020 to 2050

Abstract Understanding the impact of climate change on runoff is essential for effective water resource management and planning. In this study, the regional climate model (RCM) RegCM4.5 was used to dynamically downscale near-future climate projections from two global climate models to a 50-km horizo...

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Autores principales:	Ya Huang, Weihua Xiao, Baodeng Hou, Yuyan Zhou, Guibing Hou, Ling Yi, Hao Cui
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/5e260b0d66894048bd04b113d7438682
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:5e260b0d66894048bd04b113d74386822021-12-02T15:38:11ZHydrological projections in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River Basin from 2020 to 205010.1038/s41598-021-88135-52045-2322https://doaj.org/article/5e260b0d66894048bd04b113d74386822021-05-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-88135-5https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Understanding the impact of climate change on runoff is essential for effective water resource management and planning. In this study, the regional climate model (RCM) RegCM4.5 was used to dynamically downscale near-future climate projections from two global climate models to a 50-km horizontal resolution over the upper reaches of the Yangtze River (UYRB). Based on the bias-corrected climate projection results, the impacts of climate change on mid-twenty-first century precipitation and temperature in the UYRB were assessed. Then, through the coupling of a large-scale hydrological model with RegCM4.5, the impacts of climate change on river flows at the outlets of the UYRB were assessed. According to the projections, the eastern UYRB will tend to be warm-dry in the near-future relative to the reference period, whereas the western UYRB will tend to be warm-humid. Precipitation will decreases at a rate of 19.05–19.25 mm/10 a, and the multiyear average annual precipitation will vary between − 0.5 and 0.5 mm/day. Temperature is projected to increases significantly at a rate of 0.38–0.52 °C/10 a, and the projected multiyear average air temperature increase is approximately 1.3–1.5 ℃. The contribution of snowmelt runoff to the annual runoff in the UYBR is only approximately 4%, whereas that to the spring runoff is approximately 9.2%. Affected by climate warming, the annual average snowmelt runoff in the basin will be reduced by 36–39%, whereas the total annual runoff will be reduced by 4.1–5%, and the extreme runoff will be slightly reduced. Areas of projected decreased runoff depth are mainly concentrated in the southeast region of the basin. The decrease in precipitation is driving this decrease in the southeast, whereas the decreased runoff depth in the northwest is mainly driven by the increase in evaporation.Ya HuangWeihua XiaoBaodeng HouYuyan ZhouGuibing HouLing YiHao CuiNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-21 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Ya Huang Weihua Xiao Baodeng Hou Yuyan Zhou Guibing Hou Ling Yi Hao Cui Hydrological projections in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River Basin from 2020 to 2050
description	Abstract Understanding the impact of climate change on runoff is essential for effective water resource management and planning. In this study, the regional climate model (RCM) RegCM4.5 was used to dynamically downscale near-future climate projections from two global climate models to a 50-km horizontal resolution over the upper reaches of the Yangtze River (UYRB). Based on the bias-corrected climate projection results, the impacts of climate change on mid-twenty-first century precipitation and temperature in the UYRB were assessed. Then, through the coupling of a large-scale hydrological model with RegCM4.5, the impacts of climate change on river flows at the outlets of the UYRB were assessed. According to the projections, the eastern UYRB will tend to be warm-dry in the near-future relative to the reference period, whereas the western UYRB will tend to be warm-humid. Precipitation will decreases at a rate of 19.05–19.25 mm/10 a, and the multiyear average annual precipitation will vary between − 0.5 and 0.5 mm/day. Temperature is projected to increases significantly at a rate of 0.38–0.52 °C/10 a, and the projected multiyear average air temperature increase is approximately 1.3–1.5 ℃. The contribution of snowmelt runoff to the annual runoff in the UYBR is only approximately 4%, whereas that to the spring runoff is approximately 9.2%. Affected by climate warming, the annual average snowmelt runoff in the basin will be reduced by 36–39%, whereas the total annual runoff will be reduced by 4.1–5%, and the extreme runoff will be slightly reduced. Areas of projected decreased runoff depth are mainly concentrated in the southeast region of the basin. The decrease in precipitation is driving this decrease in the southeast, whereas the decreased runoff depth in the northwest is mainly driven by the increase in evaporation.
format	article
author	Ya Huang Weihua Xiao Baodeng Hou Yuyan Zhou Guibing Hou Ling Yi Hao Cui
author_facet	Ya Huang Weihua Xiao Baodeng Hou Yuyan Zhou Guibing Hou Ling Yi Hao Cui
author_sort	Ya Huang
title	Hydrological projections in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River Basin from 2020 to 2050
title_short	Hydrological projections in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River Basin from 2020 to 2050
title_full	Hydrological projections in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River Basin from 2020 to 2050
title_fullStr	Hydrological projections in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River Basin from 2020 to 2050
title_full_unstemmed	Hydrological projections in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River Basin from 2020 to 2050
title_sort	hydrological projections in the upper reaches of the yangtze river basin from 2020 to 2050
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/5e260b0d66894048bd04b113d7438682
work_keys_str_mv	AT yahuang hydrologicalprojectionsintheupperreachesoftheyangtzeriverbasinfrom2020to2050 AT weihuaxiao hydrologicalprojectionsintheupperreachesoftheyangtzeriverbasinfrom2020to2050 AT baodenghou hydrologicalprojectionsintheupperreachesoftheyangtzeriverbasinfrom2020to2050 AT yuyanzhou hydrologicalprojectionsintheupperreachesoftheyangtzeriverbasinfrom2020to2050 AT guibinghou hydrologicalprojectionsintheupperreachesoftheyangtzeriverbasinfrom2020to2050 AT lingyi hydrologicalprojectionsintheupperreachesoftheyangtzeriverbasinfrom2020to2050 AT haocui hydrologicalprojectionsintheupperreachesoftheyangtzeriverbasinfrom2020to2050
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Hydrological projections in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River Basin from 2020 to 2050

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