Impact of model assumptions on demographic inferences: the case study of two sympatric mouse lemurs in northwestern Madagascar

Abstract Background Quaternary climate fluctuations have been acknowledged as major drivers of the geographical distribution of the extraordinary biodiversity observed in tropical biomes, including Madagascar. The main existing framework for Pleistocene Malagasy diversification assumes that forest c...

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Autores principales:	Helena Teixeira, Jordi Salmona, Armando Arredondo, Beatriz Mourato, Sophie Manzi, Romule Rakotondravony, Olivier Mazet, Lounès Chikhi, Julia Metzger, Ute Radespiel
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	BMC 2021
Materias:	Quaternary climatic oscillations Genomics Demographic modelling Madagascar Mouse lemurs Ecology QH540-549.5 Evolution QH359-425
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/5e5503a205124291ad7a27b888f241a8
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:5e5503a205124291ad7a27b888f241a82021-11-07T12:04:18ZImpact of model assumptions on demographic inferences: the case study of two sympatric mouse lemurs in northwestern Madagascar10.1186/s12862-021-01929-z2730-7182https://doaj.org/article/5e5503a205124291ad7a27b888f241a82021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1186/s12862-021-01929-zhttps://doaj.org/toc/2730-7182Abstract Background Quaternary climate fluctuations have been acknowledged as major drivers of the geographical distribution of the extraordinary biodiversity observed in tropical biomes, including Madagascar. The main existing framework for Pleistocene Malagasy diversification assumes that forest cover was strongly shaped by warmer Interglacials (leading to forest expansion) and by cooler and arid glacials (leading to forest contraction), but predictions derived from this scenario for forest-dwelling animals have rarely been tested with genomic datasets. Results We generated genomic data and applied three complementary demographic approaches (Stairway Plot, PSMC and IICR-simulations) to infer population size and connectivity changes for two forest-dependent primate species (Microcebus murinus and M. ravelobensis) in northwestern Madagascar. The analyses suggested major demographic changes in both species that could be interpreted in two ways, depending on underlying model assumptions (i.e., panmixia or population structure). Under panmixia, the two species exhibited larger population sizes across the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and towards the African Humid Period (AHP). This peak was followed by a population decline in M. ravelobensis until the present, while M. murinus may have experienced a second population expansion that was followed by a sharp decline starting 3000 years ago. In contrast, simulations under population structure suggested decreasing population connectivity between the Last Interglacial and the LGM for both species, but increased connectivity during the AHP exclusively for M. murinus. Conclusion Our study shows that closely related species may differ in their responses to climatic events. Assuming that Pleistocene climatic conditions in the lowlands were similar to those in the Malagasy highlands, some demographic dynamics would be better explained by changes in population connectivity than in population size. However, changes in connectivity alone cannot be easily reconciled with a founder effect that was shown for M. murinus during its colonization of the northwestern Madagascar in the late Pleistocene. To decide between the two alternative models, more knowledge about historic forest dynamics in lowland habitats is necessary. Altogether, our study stresses that demographic inferences strongly depend on the underlying model assumptions. Final conclusions should therefore be based on a comparative evaluation of multiple approaches.Helena TeixeiraJordi SalmonaArmando ArredondoBeatriz MouratoSophie ManziRomule RakotondravonyOlivier MazetLounès ChikhiJulia MetzgerUte RadespielBMCarticleQuaternary climatic oscillationsGenomicsDemographic modellingMadagascarMouse lemursEcologyQH540-549.5EvolutionQH359-425ENBMC Ecology and Evolution, Vol 21, Iss 1, Pp 1-18 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Quaternary climatic oscillations Genomics Demographic modelling Madagascar Mouse lemurs Ecology QH540-549.5 Evolution QH359-425
spellingShingle	Quaternary climatic oscillations Genomics Demographic modelling Madagascar Mouse lemurs Ecology QH540-549.5 Evolution QH359-425 Helena Teixeira Jordi Salmona Armando Arredondo Beatriz Mourato Sophie Manzi Romule Rakotondravony Olivier Mazet Lounès Chikhi Julia Metzger Ute Radespiel Impact of model assumptions on demographic inferences: the case study of two sympatric mouse lemurs in northwestern Madagascar
description	Abstract Background Quaternary climate fluctuations have been acknowledged as major drivers of the geographical distribution of the extraordinary biodiversity observed in tropical biomes, including Madagascar. The main existing framework for Pleistocene Malagasy diversification assumes that forest cover was strongly shaped by warmer Interglacials (leading to forest expansion) and by cooler and arid glacials (leading to forest contraction), but predictions derived from this scenario for forest-dwelling animals have rarely been tested with genomic datasets. Results We generated genomic data and applied three complementary demographic approaches (Stairway Plot, PSMC and IICR-simulations) to infer population size and connectivity changes for two forest-dependent primate species (Microcebus murinus and M. ravelobensis) in northwestern Madagascar. The analyses suggested major demographic changes in both species that could be interpreted in two ways, depending on underlying model assumptions (i.e., panmixia or population structure). Under panmixia, the two species exhibited larger population sizes across the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and towards the African Humid Period (AHP). This peak was followed by a population decline in M. ravelobensis until the present, while M. murinus may have experienced a second population expansion that was followed by a sharp decline starting 3000 years ago. In contrast, simulations under population structure suggested decreasing population connectivity between the Last Interglacial and the LGM for both species, but increased connectivity during the AHP exclusively for M. murinus. Conclusion Our study shows that closely related species may differ in their responses to climatic events. Assuming that Pleistocene climatic conditions in the lowlands were similar to those in the Malagasy highlands, some demographic dynamics would be better explained by changes in population connectivity than in population size. However, changes in connectivity alone cannot be easily reconciled with a founder effect that was shown for M. murinus during its colonization of the northwestern Madagascar in the late Pleistocene. To decide between the two alternative models, more knowledge about historic forest dynamics in lowland habitats is necessary. Altogether, our study stresses that demographic inferences strongly depend on the underlying model assumptions. Final conclusions should therefore be based on a comparative evaluation of multiple approaches.
format	article
author	Helena Teixeira Jordi Salmona Armando Arredondo Beatriz Mourato Sophie Manzi Romule Rakotondravony Olivier Mazet Lounès Chikhi Julia Metzger Ute Radespiel
author_facet	Helena Teixeira Jordi Salmona Armando Arredondo Beatriz Mourato Sophie Manzi Romule Rakotondravony Olivier Mazet Lounès Chikhi Julia Metzger Ute Radespiel
author_sort	Helena Teixeira
title	Impact of model assumptions on demographic inferences: the case study of two sympatric mouse lemurs in northwestern Madagascar
title_short	Impact of model assumptions on demographic inferences: the case study of two sympatric mouse lemurs in northwestern Madagascar
title_full	Impact of model assumptions on demographic inferences: the case study of two sympatric mouse lemurs in northwestern Madagascar
title_fullStr	Impact of model assumptions on demographic inferences: the case study of two sympatric mouse lemurs in northwestern Madagascar
title_full_unstemmed	Impact of model assumptions on demographic inferences: the case study of two sympatric mouse lemurs in northwestern Madagascar
title_sort	impact of model assumptions on demographic inferences: the case study of two sympatric mouse lemurs in northwestern madagascar
publisher	BMC
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/5e5503a205124291ad7a27b888f241a8
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Impact of model assumptions on demographic inferences: the case study of two sympatric mouse lemurs in northwestern Madagascar

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