Uncertainty propagation and sensitivity analysis in composite manufacturing cost estimation: ALPHA-framework and cost tool development

The presented ALPHA cost tool is a novel highly flexible bottom-up parametric hybrid cost estimation framework. It combines the benefits of both methods with the aim of providing cost information during all product development phases. The software offers full transparency to the user and advanced tw...

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Autores principales:	Christian Hueber, Nikolaus Schwingshandl, Ralf Schledjewski
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Taylor & Francis Group 2019
Materias:	cost estimation sensitivity analysis monte carlo simulation composite processing aerospace manufacturing Polymers and polymer manufacture TP1080-1185 Automation T59.5
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/5e8d4d2cf1314710b5d435c7a70be710
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:5e8d4d2cf1314710b5d435c7a70be7102021-12-02T05:16:03ZUncertainty propagation and sensitivity analysis in composite manufacturing cost estimation: ALPHA-framework and cost tool development2055-035910.1080/20550340.2019.1599536https://doaj.org/article/5e8d4d2cf1314710b5d435c7a70be7102019-04-01T00:00:00Zhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1080/20550340.2019.1599536https://doaj.org/toc/2055-0359The presented ALPHA cost tool is a novel highly flexible bottom-up parametric hybrid cost estimation framework. It combines the benefits of both methods with the aim of providing cost information during all product development phases. The software offers full transparency to the user and advanced two-level uncertainty management to not only understand any project’s cost structure but also aid to identify its cost driving parameters. The implementation of sensitivity analysis makes the intrinsic uncertainty inevitable embedded in cost estimation become graspable. Gaussian error propagation offers direct feedback without extra calculation time while classic Monte Carlo Simulation gives detailed insight through post estimation analysis. From the vast number of commercially available or self-developed cost tools many probably already incorporate uncertainty measures similar to those proposed here. But this article shows both the potential of the additionally obtainable information from uncertainty propagation and demonstrates a way of integrating these risk considerations into a self-developed cost tool.Christian HueberNikolaus SchwingshandlRalf SchledjewskiTaylor & Francis Grouparticlecost estimationsensitivity analysismonte carlo simulationcomposite processingaerospace manufacturingPolymers and polymer manufactureTP1080-1185AutomationT59.5ENAdvanced Manufacturing: Polymer & Composites Science, Vol 5, Iss 2, Pp 69-84 (2019)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	cost estimation sensitivity analysis monte carlo simulation composite processing aerospace manufacturing Polymers and polymer manufacture TP1080-1185 Automation T59.5
spellingShingle	cost estimation sensitivity analysis monte carlo simulation composite processing aerospace manufacturing Polymers and polymer manufacture TP1080-1185 Automation T59.5 Christian Hueber Nikolaus Schwingshandl Ralf Schledjewski Uncertainty propagation and sensitivity analysis in composite manufacturing cost estimation: ALPHA-framework and cost tool development
description	The presented ALPHA cost tool is a novel highly flexible bottom-up parametric hybrid cost estimation framework. It combines the benefits of both methods with the aim of providing cost information during all product development phases. The software offers full transparency to the user and advanced two-level uncertainty management to not only understand any project’s cost structure but also aid to identify its cost driving parameters. The implementation of sensitivity analysis makes the intrinsic uncertainty inevitable embedded in cost estimation become graspable. Gaussian error propagation offers direct feedback without extra calculation time while classic Monte Carlo Simulation gives detailed insight through post estimation analysis. From the vast number of commercially available or self-developed cost tools many probably already incorporate uncertainty measures similar to those proposed here. But this article shows both the potential of the additionally obtainable information from uncertainty propagation and demonstrates a way of integrating these risk considerations into a self-developed cost tool.
format	article
author	Christian Hueber Nikolaus Schwingshandl Ralf Schledjewski
author_facet	Christian Hueber Nikolaus Schwingshandl Ralf Schledjewski
author_sort	Christian Hueber
title	Uncertainty propagation and sensitivity analysis in composite manufacturing cost estimation: ALPHA-framework and cost tool development
title_short	Uncertainty propagation and sensitivity analysis in composite manufacturing cost estimation: ALPHA-framework and cost tool development
title_full	Uncertainty propagation and sensitivity analysis in composite manufacturing cost estimation: ALPHA-framework and cost tool development
title_fullStr	Uncertainty propagation and sensitivity analysis in composite manufacturing cost estimation: ALPHA-framework and cost tool development
title_full_unstemmed	Uncertainty propagation and sensitivity analysis in composite manufacturing cost estimation: ALPHA-framework and cost tool development
title_sort	uncertainty propagation and sensitivity analysis in composite manufacturing cost estimation: alpha-framework and cost tool development
publisher	Taylor & Francis Group
publishDate	2019
url	https://doaj.org/article/5e8d4d2cf1314710b5d435c7a70be710
work_keys_str_mv	AT christianhueber uncertaintypropagationandsensitivityanalysisincompositemanufacturingcostestimationalphaframeworkandcosttooldevelopment AT nikolausschwingshandl uncertaintypropagationandsensitivityanalysisincompositemanufacturingcostestimationalphaframeworkandcosttooldevelopment AT ralfschledjewski uncertaintypropagationandsensitivityanalysisincompositemanufacturingcostestimationalphaframeworkandcosttooldevelopment
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Uncertainty propagation and sensitivity analysis in composite manufacturing cost estimation: ALPHA-framework and cost tool development

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