Estimating the impact of climate change on water levels in a data-poor river basin in southeastern Brazil

In basins with multiple water uses, it is possible a conflict over water use may occur. This probability increases under a water scarcity scenario. Therefore, it is important to estimate the possible impact of climate change on water availability in this type of basin, to support the decision-making...

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Autores principales:	Mateus Gonçalves Michelan, Mateus Nardini Menegaz, Flávio Aparecido Gonçalves, Paulo Henrique Bretanha Junker Menezes, Rafael de Oliveira Tiezzi
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	IWA Publishing 2021
Materias:	average monthly flow climate models hydrologic modeling multiple uses small river basins water availability River, lake, and water-supply engineering (General) TC401-506
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/5eca8c78f4594af28fc2f46a117f6fdf
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id	oai:doaj.org-article:5eca8c78f4594af28fc2f46a117f6fdf
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:5eca8c78f4594af28fc2f46a117f6fdf2021-11-05T20:20:11ZEstimating the impact of climate change on water levels in a data-poor river basin in southeastern Brazil1366-70171996-975910.2166/wp.2021.022https://doaj.org/article/5eca8c78f4594af28fc2f46a117f6fdf2021-10-01T00:00:00Zhttp://wp.iwaponline.com/content/23/5/1284https://doaj.org/toc/1366-7017https://doaj.org/toc/1996-9759In basins with multiple water uses, it is possible a conflict over water use may occur. This probability increases under a water scarcity scenario. Therefore, it is important to estimate the possible impact of climate change on water availability in this type of basin, to support the decision-making of its users. The Ribeirão do Cipó is an example of a Brazilian watershed susceptible to this situation. Besides having poor hydrological data, it is used for public water supply, electricity generation and recreation. The present work developed a methodology for estimating water availability impacted by climate change, which was particularly applied to this watershed. The methodology consisted of feeding the rainfall–runoff hydrological model called soil moisture accounting procedure with precipitation and evapotranspiration data projected by the Eta-CPTEC regional climate model and nested to three global climate models. The outputs methods were obtained in terms of average monthly flow, for 2010–2039, 2040–2069 and 2070–2099 for the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Despite the small amount of hydrological data available on the basin, the results were similar to those of the methods used as reference, thus demonstrating that the methodology used can be an alternative in estimating flow for climate change scenarios. HIGHLIGHTS Methodology for estimating flows affected by climate change in a small basin.; Comparison of projected and historical period allows a solid method to estimate flows for basins with lack of data.; Higher CO2 concentration has a direct correlation with maximum flows.; The forecast model results show a methodology consistency.; Long projection did not preclude the flow simulation since the models did not present anomalies.;Mateus Gonçalves MichelanMateus Nardini MenegazFlávio Aparecido GonçalvesPaulo Henrique Bretanha Junker MenezesRafael de Oliveira TiezziIWA Publishingarticleaverage monthly flowclimate modelshydrologic modelingmultiple usessmall river basinswater availabilityRiver, lake, and water-supply engineering (General)TC401-506ENWater Policy, Vol 23, Iss 5, Pp 1284-1302 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	average monthly flow climate models hydrologic modeling multiple uses small river basins water availability River, lake, and water-supply engineering (General) TC401-506
spellingShingle	average monthly flow climate models hydrologic modeling multiple uses small river basins water availability River, lake, and water-supply engineering (General) TC401-506 Mateus Gonçalves Michelan Mateus Nardini Menegaz Flávio Aparecido Gonçalves Paulo Henrique Bretanha Junker Menezes Rafael de Oliveira Tiezzi Estimating the impact of climate change on water levels in a data-poor river basin in southeastern Brazil
description	In basins with multiple water uses, it is possible a conflict over water use may occur. This probability increases under a water scarcity scenario. Therefore, it is important to estimate the possible impact of climate change on water availability in this type of basin, to support the decision-making of its users. The Ribeirão do Cipó is an example of a Brazilian watershed susceptible to this situation. Besides having poor hydrological data, it is used for public water supply, electricity generation and recreation. The present work developed a methodology for estimating water availability impacted by climate change, which was particularly applied to this watershed. The methodology consisted of feeding the rainfall–runoff hydrological model called soil moisture accounting procedure with precipitation and evapotranspiration data projected by the Eta-CPTEC regional climate model and nested to three global climate models. The outputs methods were obtained in terms of average monthly flow, for 2010–2039, 2040–2069 and 2070–2099 for the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Despite the small amount of hydrological data available on the basin, the results were similar to those of the methods used as reference, thus demonstrating that the methodology used can be an alternative in estimating flow for climate change scenarios. HIGHLIGHTS Methodology for estimating flows affected by climate change in a small basin.; Comparison of projected and historical period allows a solid method to estimate flows for basins with lack of data.; Higher CO2 concentration has a direct correlation with maximum flows.; The forecast model results show a methodology consistency.; Long projection did not preclude the flow simulation since the models did not present anomalies.;
format	article
author	Mateus Gonçalves Michelan Mateus Nardini Menegaz Flávio Aparecido Gonçalves Paulo Henrique Bretanha Junker Menezes Rafael de Oliveira Tiezzi
author_facet	Mateus Gonçalves Michelan Mateus Nardini Menegaz Flávio Aparecido Gonçalves Paulo Henrique Bretanha Junker Menezes Rafael de Oliveira Tiezzi
author_sort	Mateus Gonçalves Michelan
title	Estimating the impact of climate change on water levels in a data-poor river basin in southeastern Brazil
title_short	Estimating the impact of climate change on water levels in a data-poor river basin in southeastern Brazil
title_full	Estimating the impact of climate change on water levels in a data-poor river basin in southeastern Brazil
title_fullStr	Estimating the impact of climate change on water levels in a data-poor river basin in southeastern Brazil
title_full_unstemmed	Estimating the impact of climate change on water levels in a data-poor river basin in southeastern Brazil
title_sort	estimating the impact of climate change on water levels in a data-poor river basin in southeastern brazil
publisher	IWA Publishing
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/5eca8c78f4594af28fc2f46a117f6fdf
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Estimating the impact of climate change on water levels in a data-poor river basin in southeastern Brazil

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