Estimation earthquake occurrence probability in Kamchatka region based on seismological and complex of ionospheric precursors

In this paper the authors present the method of estimation of a region, waiting period and probability of strong earthquakes with KS ≥ 13.5 (M ≥ 6.0) in Kamchatka region based on the combination of mid-term and short-term predictive signs accompanying earthquake formation. The seismological predicti...

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Autores principales:	Boganov Vadim, Pavlov Aleksey
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	EDP Sciences 2021
Materias:	Physics QC1-999
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/5ee1e7a10df44632b4636244d25cadd7
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id	oai:doaj.org-article:5ee1e7a10df44632b4636244d25cadd7
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:5ee1e7a10df44632b4636244d25cadd72021-11-12T11:44:52ZEstimation earthquake occurrence probability in Kamchatka region based on seismological and complex of ionospheric precursors2100-014X10.1051/epjconf/202125403003https://doaj.org/article/5ee1e7a10df44632b4636244d25cadd72021-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.epj-conferences.org/articles/epjconf/pdf/2021/08/epjconf_strpep2021_03003.pdfhttps://doaj.org/toc/2100-014XIn this paper the authors present the method of estimation of a region, waiting period and probability of strong earthquakes with KS ≥ 13.5 (M ≥ 6.0) in Kamchatka region based on the combination of mid-term and short-term predictive signs accompanying earthquake formation. The seismological predictive parameter ξP was taken as a mid-term precursor. It was calculated on the basis of the probabilistic model of seismic regime. A complex of ionospheric parameters was considered as short-term predictive signs with an earthquake waiting period of up to 5 days. It includes the K-layer, the sporadic Es layer of the r type, the critical frequency foF2, and the frequency stratification of the F2 layer. The probabilities of strong earthquakes with KS ≥ 13.5 (M ≥ 6.0) that occurred over the period 2019–2021 in an expected zone, determined by the parameter ξP, were estimated on the basis of Bayes method provided that a complex of anomalous parameters of the ionosphere was identified.Boganov VadimPavlov AlekseyEDP SciencesarticlePhysicsQC1-999ENEPJ Web of Conferences, Vol 254, p 03003 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Physics QC1-999
spellingShingle	Physics QC1-999 Boganov Vadim Pavlov Aleksey Estimation earthquake occurrence probability in Kamchatka region based on seismological and complex of ionospheric precursors
description	In this paper the authors present the method of estimation of a region, waiting period and probability of strong earthquakes with KS ≥ 13.5 (M ≥ 6.0) in Kamchatka region based on the combination of mid-term and short-term predictive signs accompanying earthquake formation. The seismological predictive parameter ξP was taken as a mid-term precursor. It was calculated on the basis of the probabilistic model of seismic regime. A complex of ionospheric parameters was considered as short-term predictive signs with an earthquake waiting period of up to 5 days. It includes the K-layer, the sporadic Es layer of the r type, the critical frequency foF2, and the frequency stratification of the F2 layer. The probabilities of strong earthquakes with KS ≥ 13.5 (M ≥ 6.0) that occurred over the period 2019–2021 in an expected zone, determined by the parameter ξP, were estimated on the basis of Bayes method provided that a complex of anomalous parameters of the ionosphere was identified.
format	article
author	Boganov Vadim Pavlov Aleksey
author_facet	Boganov Vadim Pavlov Aleksey
author_sort	Boganov Vadim
title	Estimation earthquake occurrence probability in Kamchatka region based on seismological and complex of ionospheric precursors
title_short	Estimation earthquake occurrence probability in Kamchatka region based on seismological and complex of ionospheric precursors
title_full	Estimation earthquake occurrence probability in Kamchatka region based on seismological and complex of ionospheric precursors
title_fullStr	Estimation earthquake occurrence probability in Kamchatka region based on seismological and complex of ionospheric precursors
title_full_unstemmed	Estimation earthquake occurrence probability in Kamchatka region based on seismological and complex of ionospheric precursors
title_sort	estimation earthquake occurrence probability in kamchatka region based on seismological and complex of ionospheric precursors
publisher	EDP Sciences
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/5ee1e7a10df44632b4636244d25cadd7
work_keys_str_mv	AT boganovvadim estimationearthquakeoccurrenceprobabilityinkamchatkaregionbasedonseismologicalandcomplexofionosphericprecursors AT pavlovaleksey estimationearthquakeoccurrenceprobabilityinkamchatkaregionbasedonseismologicalandcomplexofionosphericprecursors
_version_	1718430555545010176

Estimation earthquake occurrence probability in Kamchatka region based on seismological and complex of ionospheric precursors

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