Assessment of Factors and Indicators Influencing the Cyclical Development of the Economy of Azerbaijan

We are proposing the results of economic development factors analysis, and there influence in forming and display of the economic cycles. The purpose of this article is to identify significant indicators of the cyclical development Azerbaijan economy for the capable of predicting and regulating phas...

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Autor principal:	E. M. Ahmadova
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN RU
Publicado:	Ассоциация независимых экспертов «Центр изучения кризисного общества» (in English: Association for independent experts “Center for Crisis Society Studies”) 2021
Materias:	indicators factors economic cycle economic activity modeling qualitative analysis correlation analysis gdp International relations JZ2-6530
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/5f4eac640f554413955d61d05feef620
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:5f4eac640f554413955d61d05feef6202021-11-07T14:45:05ZAssessment of Factors and Indicators Influencing the Cyclical Development of the Economy of Azerbaijan2542-02402587-932410.23932/2542-0240-2021-14-2-6https://doaj.org/article/5f4eac640f554413955d61d05feef6202021-04-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.ogt-journal.com/jour/article/view/757https://doaj.org/toc/2542-0240https://doaj.org/toc/2587-9324We are proposing the results of economic development factors analysis, and there influence in forming and display of the economic cycles. The purpose of this article is to identify significant indicators of the cyclical development Azerbaijan economy for the capable of predicting and regulating phases of the onset of business cycle. Were checking 20 different indicators based by the annual data of the State Statistical Committee from 1998 to 2018. The relationship and influence of interest rates and the cyclical Azerbaijan economy development were examined. The methodological basis of this work became an analysis of such fundamental research data as papers IMF and the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBEI) of the United States. Scientific methods of our research were an indicator approach, complemented by a qualitative analysis and a correlation-regression analysis. The calculations were performed by the freely distributed modern software - the statistical environment R, the most dynamically developing program in its class. So acyclic, countercyclical, and pro-cyclic indicators were identified by us. The features of the influence of these indicators on cyclic development in modern conditions were identified, their significance was determined. It was concluded that the possibility of economic cycles forecasting by the various phases indicators contributes to the modeling of economic activity. The results of the research can be applied both to monitor the development of the Azerbaijan economy and to predict the onset of the corresponding economic phases with the aim of adapting and reducing crises’ negative impact at the micro and macro levels.E. M. AhmadovaАссоциация независимых экспертов «Центр изучения кризисного общества» (in English: Association for independent experts “Center for Crisis Society Studies”)articleindicatorsfactorseconomic cycleeconomic activitymodelingqualitative analysiscorrelation analysisgdpInternational relationsJZ2-6530ENRUКонтуры глобальных трансформаций: политика, экономика, право, Vol 14, Iss 2, Pp 100-121 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN RU
topic	indicators factors economic cycle economic activity modeling qualitative analysis correlation analysis gdp International relations JZ2-6530
spellingShingle	indicators factors economic cycle economic activity modeling qualitative analysis correlation analysis gdp International relations JZ2-6530 E. M. Ahmadova Assessment of Factors and Indicators Influencing the Cyclical Development of the Economy of Azerbaijan
description	We are proposing the results of economic development factors analysis, and there influence in forming and display of the economic cycles. The purpose of this article is to identify significant indicators of the cyclical development Azerbaijan economy for the capable of predicting and regulating phases of the onset of business cycle. Were checking 20 different indicators based by the annual data of the State Statistical Committee from 1998 to 2018. The relationship and influence of interest rates and the cyclical Azerbaijan economy development were examined. The methodological basis of this work became an analysis of such fundamental research data as papers IMF and the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBEI) of the United States. Scientific methods of our research were an indicator approach, complemented by a qualitative analysis and a correlation-regression analysis. The calculations were performed by the freely distributed modern software - the statistical environment R, the most dynamically developing program in its class. So acyclic, countercyclical, and pro-cyclic indicators were identified by us. The features of the influence of these indicators on cyclic development in modern conditions were identified, their significance was determined. It was concluded that the possibility of economic cycles forecasting by the various phases indicators contributes to the modeling of economic activity. The results of the research can be applied both to monitor the development of the Azerbaijan economy and to predict the onset of the corresponding economic phases with the aim of adapting and reducing crises’ negative impact at the micro and macro levels.
format	article
author	E. M. Ahmadova
author_facet	E. M. Ahmadova
author_sort	E. M. Ahmadova
title	Assessment of Factors and Indicators Influencing the Cyclical Development of the Economy of Azerbaijan
title_short	Assessment of Factors and Indicators Influencing the Cyclical Development of the Economy of Azerbaijan
title_full	Assessment of Factors and Indicators Influencing the Cyclical Development of the Economy of Azerbaijan
title_fullStr	Assessment of Factors and Indicators Influencing the Cyclical Development of the Economy of Azerbaijan
title_full_unstemmed	Assessment of Factors and Indicators Influencing the Cyclical Development of the Economy of Azerbaijan
title_sort	assessment of factors and indicators influencing the cyclical development of the economy of azerbaijan
publisher	Ассоциация независимых экспертов «Центр изучения кризисного общества» (in English: Association for independent experts “Center for Crisis Society Studies”)
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/5f4eac640f554413955d61d05feef620
work_keys_str_mv	AT emahmadova assessmentoffactorsandindicatorsinfluencingthecyclicaldevelopmentoftheeconomyofazerbaijan
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Assessment of Factors and Indicators Influencing the Cyclical Development of the Economy of Azerbaijan

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