Predicting El Niño in 2014 and 2015

Abstract Early in 2014 several forecast systems were suggesting a strong 1997/98-like El Niño event for the following northern hemisphere winter 2014/15. However the eventual outcome was a modest warming. In contrast, winter 2015/16 saw one of the strongest El Niño events on record. Here we assess t...

Descripción completa

Guardado en:

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales:	Sarah Ineson, Magdalena A. Balmaseda, Michael K. Davey, Damien Decremer, Nick J. Dunstone, Margaret Gordon, Hong-Li Ren, Adam A. Scaife, Antje Weisheimer
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2018
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/5f74304c23fb48b18c1b7be0b124ccd3
Etiquetas:	Agregar Etiqueta Sin Etiquetas, Sea el primero en etiquetar este registro!

id	oai:doaj.org-article:5f74304c23fb48b18c1b7be0b124ccd3
record_format	dspace
spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:5f74304c23fb48b18c1b7be0b124ccd32021-12-02T16:08:03ZPredicting El Niño in 2014 and 201510.1038/s41598-018-29130-12045-2322https://doaj.org/article/5f74304c23fb48b18c1b7be0b124ccd32018-07-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-29130-1https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Early in 2014 several forecast systems were suggesting a strong 1997/98-like El Niño event for the following northern hemisphere winter 2014/15. However the eventual outcome was a modest warming. In contrast, winter 2015/16 saw one of the strongest El Niño events on record. Here we assess the ability of two operational seasonal prediction systems to forecast these events, using the forecast ensembles to try to understand the reasons underlying the very different development and outcomes for these two years. We test three hypotheses. First we find that the continuation of neutral ENSO conditions in 2014 is associated with the maintenance of the observed cold southeast Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly; secondly that, in our forecasts at least, warm west equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies do not appear to hinder El Niño development; and finally that stronger westerly wind burst activity in 2015 compared to 2014 is a key difference between the two years. Interestingly, in these years at least, this interannual variability in wind burst activity is predictable. ECMWF System 4 tends to produce more westerly wind bursts than Met Office GloSea5 and this likely contributes to the larger SST anomalies predicted in this model in both years.Sarah InesonMagdalena A. BalmasedaMichael K. DaveyDamien DecremerNick J. DunstoneMargaret GordonHong-Li RenAdam A. ScaifeAntje WeisheimerNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 8, Iss 1, Pp 1-10 (2018)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Sarah Ineson Magdalena A. Balmaseda Michael K. Davey Damien Decremer Nick J. Dunstone Margaret Gordon Hong-Li Ren Adam A. Scaife Antje Weisheimer Predicting El Niño in 2014 and 2015
description	Abstract Early in 2014 several forecast systems were suggesting a strong 1997/98-like El Niño event for the following northern hemisphere winter 2014/15. However the eventual outcome was a modest warming. In contrast, winter 2015/16 saw one of the strongest El Niño events on record. Here we assess the ability of two operational seasonal prediction systems to forecast these events, using the forecast ensembles to try to understand the reasons underlying the very different development and outcomes for these two years. We test three hypotheses. First we find that the continuation of neutral ENSO conditions in 2014 is associated with the maintenance of the observed cold southeast Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly; secondly that, in our forecasts at least, warm west equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies do not appear to hinder El Niño development; and finally that stronger westerly wind burst activity in 2015 compared to 2014 is a key difference between the two years. Interestingly, in these years at least, this interannual variability in wind burst activity is predictable. ECMWF System 4 tends to produce more westerly wind bursts than Met Office GloSea5 and this likely contributes to the larger SST anomalies predicted in this model in both years.
format	article
author	Sarah Ineson Magdalena A. Balmaseda Michael K. Davey Damien Decremer Nick J. Dunstone Margaret Gordon Hong-Li Ren Adam A. Scaife Antje Weisheimer
author_facet	Sarah Ineson Magdalena A. Balmaseda Michael K. Davey Damien Decremer Nick J. Dunstone Margaret Gordon Hong-Li Ren Adam A. Scaife Antje Weisheimer
author_sort	Sarah Ineson
title	Predicting El Niño in 2014 and 2015
title_short	Predicting El Niño in 2014 and 2015
title_full	Predicting El Niño in 2014 and 2015
title_fullStr	Predicting El Niño in 2014 and 2015
title_full_unstemmed	Predicting El Niño in 2014 and 2015
title_sort	predicting el niño in 2014 and 2015
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2018
url	https://doaj.org/article/5f74304c23fb48b18c1b7be0b124ccd3
work_keys_str_mv	AT sarahineson predictingelninoin2014and2015 AT magdalenaabalmaseda predictingelninoin2014and2015 AT michaelkdavey predictingelninoin2014and2015 AT damiendecremer predictingelninoin2014and2015 AT nickjdunstone predictingelninoin2014and2015 AT margaretgordon predictingelninoin2014and2015 AT hongliren predictingelninoin2014and2015 AT adamascaife predictingelninoin2014and2015 AT antjeweisheimer predictingelninoin2014and2015
_version_	1718384657990418432

Predicting El Niño in 2014 and 2015

Ejemplares similares