Business-as-usual will lead to super and ultra-extreme heatwaves in the Middle East and North Africa

Abstract Global climate projections suggest a significant intensification of summer heat extremes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). To assess regional impacts, and underpin mitigation and adaptation measures, robust information is required from climate downscaling studies, which has been l...

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Autores principales:	George Zittis, Panos Hadjinicolaou, Mansour Almazroui, Edoardo Bucchignani, Fatima Driouech, Khalid El Rhaz, Levent Kurnaz, Grigory Nikulin, Athanasios Ntoumos, Tugba Ozturk, Yiannis Proestos, Georgiy Stenchikov, Rashyd Zaaboul, Jos Lelieveld
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/6073d50acac9495d894a7a3a8001bb02
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:6073d50acac9495d894a7a3a8001bb022021-12-02T13:23:56ZBusiness-as-usual will lead to super and ultra-extreme heatwaves in the Middle East and North Africa10.1038/s41612-021-00178-72397-3722https://doaj.org/article/6073d50acac9495d894a7a3a8001bb022021-03-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-021-00178-7https://doaj.org/toc/2397-3722Abstract Global climate projections suggest a significant intensification of summer heat extremes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). To assess regional impacts, and underpin mitigation and adaptation measures, robust information is required from climate downscaling studies, which has been lacking for the region. Here, we project future hot spells by using the Heat Wave Magnitude Index and a comprehensive ensemble of regional climate projections for MENA. Our results, for a business-as-usual pathway, indicate that in the second half of this century unprecedented super- and ultra-extreme heatwave conditions will emerge. These events involve excessively high temperatures (up to 56 °C and higher) and will be of extended duration (several weeks), being potentially life-threatening for humans. By the end of the century, about half of the MENA population (approximately 600 million) could be exposed to annually recurring super- and ultra-extreme heatwaves. It is expected that the vast majority of the exposed population (>90%) will live in urban centers, who would need to cope with these societally disruptive weather conditions.George ZittisPanos HadjinicolaouMansour AlmazrouiEdoardo BucchignaniFatima DriouechKhalid El RhazLevent KurnazGrigory NikulinAthanasios NtoumosTugba OzturkYiannis ProestosGeorgiy StenchikovRashyd ZaaboulJos LelieveldNature PortfolioarticleEnvironmental sciencesGE1-350Meteorology. ClimatologyQC851-999ENnpj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Vol 4, Iss 1, Pp 1-9 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999
spellingShingle	Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 George Zittis Panos Hadjinicolaou Mansour Almazroui Edoardo Bucchignani Fatima Driouech Khalid El Rhaz Levent Kurnaz Grigory Nikulin Athanasios Ntoumos Tugba Ozturk Yiannis Proestos Georgiy Stenchikov Rashyd Zaaboul Jos Lelieveld Business-as-usual will lead to super and ultra-extreme heatwaves in the Middle East and North Africa
description	Abstract Global climate projections suggest a significant intensification of summer heat extremes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). To assess regional impacts, and underpin mitigation and adaptation measures, robust information is required from climate downscaling studies, which has been lacking for the region. Here, we project future hot spells by using the Heat Wave Magnitude Index and a comprehensive ensemble of regional climate projections for MENA. Our results, for a business-as-usual pathway, indicate that in the second half of this century unprecedented super- and ultra-extreme heatwave conditions will emerge. These events involve excessively high temperatures (up to 56 °C and higher) and will be of extended duration (several weeks), being potentially life-threatening for humans. By the end of the century, about half of the MENA population (approximately 600 million) could be exposed to annually recurring super- and ultra-extreme heatwaves. It is expected that the vast majority of the exposed population (>90%) will live in urban centers, who would need to cope with these societally disruptive weather conditions.
format	article
author	George Zittis Panos Hadjinicolaou Mansour Almazroui Edoardo Bucchignani Fatima Driouech Khalid El Rhaz Levent Kurnaz Grigory Nikulin Athanasios Ntoumos Tugba Ozturk Yiannis Proestos Georgiy Stenchikov Rashyd Zaaboul Jos Lelieveld
author_facet	George Zittis Panos Hadjinicolaou Mansour Almazroui Edoardo Bucchignani Fatima Driouech Khalid El Rhaz Levent Kurnaz Grigory Nikulin Athanasios Ntoumos Tugba Ozturk Yiannis Proestos Georgiy Stenchikov Rashyd Zaaboul Jos Lelieveld
author_sort	George Zittis
title	Business-as-usual will lead to super and ultra-extreme heatwaves in the Middle East and North Africa
title_short	Business-as-usual will lead to super and ultra-extreme heatwaves in the Middle East and North Africa
title_full	Business-as-usual will lead to super and ultra-extreme heatwaves in the Middle East and North Africa
title_fullStr	Business-as-usual will lead to super and ultra-extreme heatwaves in the Middle East and North Africa
title_full_unstemmed	Business-as-usual will lead to super and ultra-extreme heatwaves in the Middle East and North Africa
title_sort	business-as-usual will lead to super and ultra-extreme heatwaves in the middle east and north africa
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/6073d50acac9495d894a7a3a8001bb02
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Business-as-usual will lead to super and ultra-extreme heatwaves in the Middle East and North Africa

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