THE PROBABILITY OF UNCERTAINTY: ROMANIA’S GROWTH PERSPECTIVES

This paper follows the already existing literature to address three main pressing concerns that Romania is currently facing with respect to sustainable development and economic growth, which has likely been impeded as a direct consequence of the ongoing sanitary crisis. The research questions of thi...

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Autores principales:	Ionuţ Gavriş, Valentin Toader
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	DE EN FR IT
Publicado:	University of Oradea 2021
Materias:	GDP; probability; distribution; growth; forecasting; Romania Business HF5001-6182 Finance HG1-9999
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/60a3f96502194126b2f83a5c50414c49
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:60a3f96502194126b2f83a5c50414c492021-11-09T19:43:06ZTHE PROBABILITY OF UNCERTAINTY: ROMANIA’S GROWTH PERSPECTIVES1222-569X1582-5450https://doaj.org/article/60a3f96502194126b2f83a5c50414c492021-07-01T00:00:00Zhttp://anale.steconomiceuoradea.ro/volume/2021/n1/006.pdfhttps://doaj.org/toc/1222-569Xhttps://doaj.org/toc/1582-5450This paper follows the already existing literature to address three main pressing concerns that Romania is currently facing with respect to sustainable development and economic growth, which has likely been impeded as a direct consequence of the ongoing sanitary crisis. The research questions of this paper were asked with the consideration of finding possible solutions to the current developments. These questions were “How will the global health crisis project on Romania’s GDP growth in 2021 and going forward?”, “To what extent can Romania face its current challenges with respect to the budgetary pressures?”. The research itself was conducted using the R programming language with quantitative data, namely quarterly GDP starting from 2005 Q1 onwards and its main objective is to simulate Romania’s GDP to answer the aforementioned questions. Therefore, this research is empirical in the sense that it derives the simulated data from real data which was taken from Eurostat. The main findings of this research were that Romania’s GDP could grow by a mean 3.2% in 2021, which is more conservative than the existing institutional forecasts made by the European Commission, the International Monetary Fund, World Bank and the Romanian National Commission for Strategy and Forecasting, implying that the majority of the simulated outcomes have been in that respective range of values. Moreover, this research also finds that consumption is expected to increase by approximately 4.2% and that the budget deficit relative to GDP could go as low as to negative 7.8%. This paper creates value for future policymaking as it proposes solutions which could help Romania going forward. Thus, this paper creates value for not only the policymakers but the society as a whole.Ionuţ GavrişValentin ToaderUniversity of OradeaarticleGDP; probability; distribution; growth; forecasting; RomaniaBusinessHF5001-6182FinanceHG1-9999DEENFRITAnnals of the University of Oradea: Economic Science, Vol 30, Iss 1, Pp 71-81 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	DE EN FR IT
topic	GDP; probability; distribution; growth; forecasting; Romania Business HF5001-6182 Finance HG1-9999
spellingShingle	GDP; probability; distribution; growth; forecasting; Romania Business HF5001-6182 Finance HG1-9999 Ionuţ Gavriş Valentin Toader THE PROBABILITY OF UNCERTAINTY: ROMANIA’S GROWTH PERSPECTIVES
description	This paper follows the already existing literature to address three main pressing concerns that Romania is currently facing with respect to sustainable development and economic growth, which has likely been impeded as a direct consequence of the ongoing sanitary crisis. The research questions of this paper were asked with the consideration of finding possible solutions to the current developments. These questions were “How will the global health crisis project on Romania’s GDP growth in 2021 and going forward?”, “To what extent can Romania face its current challenges with respect to the budgetary pressures?”. The research itself was conducted using the R programming language with quantitative data, namely quarterly GDP starting from 2005 Q1 onwards and its main objective is to simulate Romania’s GDP to answer the aforementioned questions. Therefore, this research is empirical in the sense that it derives the simulated data from real data which was taken from Eurostat. The main findings of this research were that Romania’s GDP could grow by a mean 3.2% in 2021, which is more conservative than the existing institutional forecasts made by the European Commission, the International Monetary Fund, World Bank and the Romanian National Commission for Strategy and Forecasting, implying that the majority of the simulated outcomes have been in that respective range of values. Moreover, this research also finds that consumption is expected to increase by approximately 4.2% and that the budget deficit relative to GDP could go as low as to negative 7.8%. This paper creates value for future policymaking as it proposes solutions which could help Romania going forward. Thus, this paper creates value for not only the policymakers but the society as a whole.
format	article
author	Ionuţ Gavriş Valentin Toader
author_facet	Ionuţ Gavriş Valentin Toader
author_sort	Ionuţ Gavriş
title	THE PROBABILITY OF UNCERTAINTY: ROMANIA’S GROWTH PERSPECTIVES
title_short	THE PROBABILITY OF UNCERTAINTY: ROMANIA’S GROWTH PERSPECTIVES
title_full	THE PROBABILITY OF UNCERTAINTY: ROMANIA’S GROWTH PERSPECTIVES
title_fullStr	THE PROBABILITY OF UNCERTAINTY: ROMANIA’S GROWTH PERSPECTIVES
title_full_unstemmed	THE PROBABILITY OF UNCERTAINTY: ROMANIA’S GROWTH PERSPECTIVES
title_sort	probability of uncertainty: romania’s growth perspectives
publisher	University of Oradea
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/60a3f96502194126b2f83a5c50414c49
work_keys_str_mv	AT ionutgavris theprobabilityofuncertaintyromaniasgrowthperspectives AT valentintoader theprobabilityofuncertaintyromaniasgrowthperspectives AT ionutgavris probabilityofuncertaintyromaniasgrowthperspectives AT valentintoader probabilityofuncertaintyromaniasgrowthperspectives
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THE PROBABILITY OF UNCERTAINTY: ROMANIA’S GROWTH PERSPECTIVES

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