Complex networks of marine heatwaves reveal abrupt transitions in the global ocean

Abstract Understanding how marine heatwaves (MHWs) unfold in space and time under anthropogenic climate change is key to anticipate future impacts on ecosystems and society. Yet, our knowledge of the spatiotemporal dynamics of MHWs is very limited. Here, I combine network theory with topological dat...

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Autor principal:	Lisandro Benedetti-Cecchi
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/60cf32a276c64abda276aa02287b1d09
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:60cf32a276c64abda276aa02287b1d092021-12-02T10:49:16ZComplex networks of marine heatwaves reveal abrupt transitions in the global ocean10.1038/s41598-021-81369-32045-2322https://doaj.org/article/60cf32a276c64abda276aa02287b1d092021-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-81369-3https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Understanding how marine heatwaves (MHWs) unfold in space and time under anthropogenic climate change is key to anticipate future impacts on ecosystems and society. Yet, our knowledge of the spatiotemporal dynamics of MHWs is very limited. Here, I combine network theory with topological data analysis and event synchronization to high-resolution satellite data and to a set of Earth System Model simulations to reveal the dynamical organization of complex MHW networks. The analysis reveals that MHWs have already crossed a tipping point separating highly synchronized preindustrial MHWs from the more extreme, but less coherent warming events we experience today. This loose spatiotemporal organization persists under a reduced RCP 2.6 emission scenario, whereas a second abrupt transition towards a permanent state of highly synchronized MHWs is foreseen by 2075 under a business-as-usual RCP 8.5 scenario. These results highlight the risks of abrupt ocean transitions, which may dramatically affect marine life and humanity by eroding valuable time for adaptation to climate change.Lisandro Benedetti-CecchiNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-11 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Lisandro Benedetti-Cecchi Complex networks of marine heatwaves reveal abrupt transitions in the global ocean
description	Abstract Understanding how marine heatwaves (MHWs) unfold in space and time under anthropogenic climate change is key to anticipate future impacts on ecosystems and society. Yet, our knowledge of the spatiotemporal dynamics of MHWs is very limited. Here, I combine network theory with topological data analysis and event synchronization to high-resolution satellite data and to a set of Earth System Model simulations to reveal the dynamical organization of complex MHW networks. The analysis reveals that MHWs have already crossed a tipping point separating highly synchronized preindustrial MHWs from the more extreme, but less coherent warming events we experience today. This loose spatiotemporal organization persists under a reduced RCP 2.6 emission scenario, whereas a second abrupt transition towards a permanent state of highly synchronized MHWs is foreseen by 2075 under a business-as-usual RCP 8.5 scenario. These results highlight the risks of abrupt ocean transitions, which may dramatically affect marine life and humanity by eroding valuable time for adaptation to climate change.
format	article
author	Lisandro Benedetti-Cecchi
author_facet	Lisandro Benedetti-Cecchi
author_sort	Lisandro Benedetti-Cecchi
title	Complex networks of marine heatwaves reveal abrupt transitions in the global ocean
title_short	Complex networks of marine heatwaves reveal abrupt transitions in the global ocean
title_full	Complex networks of marine heatwaves reveal abrupt transitions in the global ocean
title_fullStr	Complex networks of marine heatwaves reveal abrupt transitions in the global ocean
title_full_unstemmed	Complex networks of marine heatwaves reveal abrupt transitions in the global ocean
title_sort	complex networks of marine heatwaves reveal abrupt transitions in the global ocean
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/60cf32a276c64abda276aa02287b1d09
work_keys_str_mv	AT lisandrobenedetticecchi complexnetworksofmarineheatwavesrevealabrupttransitionsintheglobalocean
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Complex networks of marine heatwaves reveal abrupt transitions in the global ocean

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