Extending the Cultivation Area of Pecan (Carya illinoinensis) Toward the South in Southeastern Subtropical China May Cause Increased Cold Damage

Pecan (Carya illinoinensis) is an important nut tree species in its native areas in temperate and subtropical North America, and as an introduced crop in subtropical southeastern China as well. We used process-based modeling to assess the effects of climatic warming in southeastern China on the leaf...

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Autores principales:	Jinbin Zheng, Heikki Hänninen, Jianhong Lin, Sitian Shen, Rui Zhang
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Frontiers Media S.A. 2021
Materias:	chilling requirement climatic warming experimental ecophysiology leaf-out pecan process-based tree phenology models Plant culture SB1-1110
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/61211a9a42d64c93ba82d2b5a7a814b9
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:61211a9a42d64c93ba82d2b5a7a814b92021-12-01T15:53:42ZExtending the Cultivation Area of Pecan (Carya illinoinensis) Toward the South in Southeastern Subtropical China May Cause Increased Cold Damage1664-462X10.3389/fpls.2021.768963https://doaj.org/article/61211a9a42d64c93ba82d2b5a7a814b92021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpls.2021.768963/fullhttps://doaj.org/toc/1664-462XPecan (Carya illinoinensis) is an important nut tree species in its native areas in temperate and subtropical North America, and as an introduced crop in subtropical southeastern China as well. We used process-based modeling to assess the effects of climatic warming in southeastern China on the leaf-out phenology of pecan seedlings and the subsequent risk of “false springs,” i.e., damage caused by low temperatures occurring as a result of prematurely leafing out. In order to maximize the biological realism of the model used in scenario simulations, we developed the model on the basis of experiments explicitly designed for determining the responses modeled. The model showed reasonable internal accuracy when calibrated against leaf-out observations in a whole-tree chamber (WTC) experiment with nine different natural-like fluctuating temperature treatments. The model was used to project the timing of leaf-out in the period 2022–2099 under the warming scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in southeastern China. Two locations in the main pecan cultivation area in the northern subtropical zone and one location south of the main cultivation area were addressed. Generally, an advancing trend of leaf-out was projected for all the three locations under both warming scenarios, but in the southern location, a delay was projected under RCP8.5 in many years during the first decades of the 21st century. In the two northern locations, cold damage caused by false springs was projected to occur once in 15–26 years at most, suggesting that pecan cultivation can be continued relatively safely in these two locations. Paradoxically, more frequent cold damage was projected for the southern location than for the two northern locations. The results for the southern location also differed from those for the northern locations in that more frequent cold damage was projected under the RCP4.5 warming scenario (once in 6 years) than under the RCP8.5 scenario (once in 11 years) in the southern location. Due to the uncertainties of the model applied, our conclusions need to be re-examined in an additional experimental study and further model development based on it; but on the basis of our present results, we do not recommend starting large-scale pecan cultivation in locations south of the present main pecan cultivation area in southeastern subtropical China.Jinbin ZhengHeikki HänninenHeikki HänninenJianhong LinSitian ShenRui ZhangRui ZhangFrontiers Media S.A.articlechilling requirementclimatic warmingexperimental ecophysiologyleaf-outpecanprocess-based tree phenology modelsPlant cultureSB1-1110ENFrontiers in Plant Science, Vol 12 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	chilling requirement climatic warming experimental ecophysiology leaf-out pecan process-based tree phenology models Plant culture SB1-1110
spellingShingle	chilling requirement climatic warming experimental ecophysiology leaf-out pecan process-based tree phenology models Plant culture SB1-1110 Jinbin Zheng Heikki Hänninen Heikki Hänninen Jianhong Lin Sitian Shen Rui Zhang Rui Zhang Extending the Cultivation Area of Pecan (Carya illinoinensis) Toward the South in Southeastern Subtropical China May Cause Increased Cold Damage
description	Pecan (Carya illinoinensis) is an important nut tree species in its native areas in temperate and subtropical North America, and as an introduced crop in subtropical southeastern China as well. We used process-based modeling to assess the effects of climatic warming in southeastern China on the leaf-out phenology of pecan seedlings and the subsequent risk of “false springs,” i.e., damage caused by low temperatures occurring as a result of prematurely leafing out. In order to maximize the biological realism of the model used in scenario simulations, we developed the model on the basis of experiments explicitly designed for determining the responses modeled. The model showed reasonable internal accuracy when calibrated against leaf-out observations in a whole-tree chamber (WTC) experiment with nine different natural-like fluctuating temperature treatments. The model was used to project the timing of leaf-out in the period 2022–2099 under the warming scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in southeastern China. Two locations in the main pecan cultivation area in the northern subtropical zone and one location south of the main cultivation area were addressed. Generally, an advancing trend of leaf-out was projected for all the three locations under both warming scenarios, but in the southern location, a delay was projected under RCP8.5 in many years during the first decades of the 21st century. In the two northern locations, cold damage caused by false springs was projected to occur once in 15–26 years at most, suggesting that pecan cultivation can be continued relatively safely in these two locations. Paradoxically, more frequent cold damage was projected for the southern location than for the two northern locations. The results for the southern location also differed from those for the northern locations in that more frequent cold damage was projected under the RCP4.5 warming scenario (once in 6 years) than under the RCP8.5 scenario (once in 11 years) in the southern location. Due to the uncertainties of the model applied, our conclusions need to be re-examined in an additional experimental study and further model development based on it; but on the basis of our present results, we do not recommend starting large-scale pecan cultivation in locations south of the present main pecan cultivation area in southeastern subtropical China.
format	article
author	Jinbin Zheng Heikki Hänninen Heikki Hänninen Jianhong Lin Sitian Shen Rui Zhang Rui Zhang
author_facet	Jinbin Zheng Heikki Hänninen Heikki Hänninen Jianhong Lin Sitian Shen Rui Zhang Rui Zhang
author_sort	Jinbin Zheng
title	Extending the Cultivation Area of Pecan (Carya illinoinensis) Toward the South in Southeastern Subtropical China May Cause Increased Cold Damage
title_short	Extending the Cultivation Area of Pecan (Carya illinoinensis) Toward the South in Southeastern Subtropical China May Cause Increased Cold Damage
title_full	Extending the Cultivation Area of Pecan (Carya illinoinensis) Toward the South in Southeastern Subtropical China May Cause Increased Cold Damage
title_fullStr	Extending the Cultivation Area of Pecan (Carya illinoinensis) Toward the South in Southeastern Subtropical China May Cause Increased Cold Damage
title_full_unstemmed	Extending the Cultivation Area of Pecan (Carya illinoinensis) Toward the South in Southeastern Subtropical China May Cause Increased Cold Damage
title_sort	extending the cultivation area of pecan (carya illinoinensis) toward the south in southeastern subtropical china may cause increased cold damage
publisher	Frontiers Media S.A.
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/61211a9a42d64c93ba82d2b5a7a814b9
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Extending the Cultivation Area of Pecan (Carya illinoinensis) Toward the South in Southeastern Subtropical China May Cause Increased Cold Damage

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