An analysis on the trend of AIDS/HIV incidence in Chongqing and Shenzhen, China from 2005–2015 based on Age-Period-Cohort model

This paper elucidates that the AIDS/HIV incidence rate differences exist among different population and regions, especially among the old and college students. Due to the effect of age, the AIDS incidence peak in males aged 20–35 years and 50 years old both in Chongqing and Shenzhen, and the inciden...

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Autores principales:	Ying Liu, Weidong Ji, Yi Yin, Zhengrong Yang, Shu Yang, Yongli Cai, Kai Wang, Zhihang Peng, Daihai He, Weiming Wang
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	AIMS Press 2021
Materias:	aids/hiv age effect periodic effect cohort effect prediction Biotechnology TP248.13-248.65 Mathematics QA1-939
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/616cd571d81e4ef597f50423489fc87e
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:616cd571d81e4ef597f50423489fc87e2021-11-23T01:29:16ZAn analysis on the trend of AIDS/HIV incidence in Chongqing and Shenzhen, China from 2005–2015 based on Age-Period-Cohort model10.3934/mbe.20213461551-0018https://doaj.org/article/616cd571d81e4ef597f50423489fc87e2021-08-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.aimspress.com/article/doi/10.3934/mbe.2021346?viewType=HTMLhttps://doaj.org/toc/1551-0018This paper elucidates that the AIDS/HIV incidence rate differences exist among different population and regions, especially among the old and college students. Due to the effect of age, the AIDS incidence peak in males aged 20–35 years and 50 years old both in Chongqing and Shenzhen, and the incidence rate and increasing spread in males was higher than that of females under period effect. In the local population in Chongqing and Shenzhen, the incidence rate of males in over 40, below and in the whole age groups are predicted to increase sharply in the future six years, while in females, the incidence rates among over 40-year-old and the whole age groups were predicted to increase as well. The incidence rate among homosexually transmitted patients reaches the peak in the 20–35, the incidence rate of patients transmitted through heterosexual reaches the peak around 50-year-old. Under the effect of period, AIDS/HIV incidence rate of patients transmitted through sexual routes showed an upward trend both in Chongqing and Shenzhen. The incidence rate of patients aged between 41 and 70 years old presents with an upward trend in the future six years. The results show great differences exist in the AIDS/HIV incidence between males and females, therefore it is necessary to take specific measures respectively.Ying LiuWeidong JiYi YinZhengrong YangShu YangYongli Cai Yongli CaiKai WangZhihang PengDaihai He Weiming WangAIMS Pressarticleaids/hivage effectperiodic effectcohort effectpredictionBiotechnologyTP248.13-248.65MathematicsQA1-939ENMathematical Biosciences and Engineering, Vol 18, Iss 5, Pp 6961-6977 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	aids/hiv age effect periodic effect cohort effect prediction Biotechnology TP248.13-248.65 Mathematics QA1-939
spellingShingle	aids/hiv age effect periodic effect cohort effect prediction Biotechnology TP248.13-248.65 Mathematics QA1-939 Ying Liu Weidong Ji Yi Yin Zhengrong Yang Shu Yang Yongli Cai Yongli Cai Kai Wang Zhihang Peng Daihai He Weiming Wang An analysis on the trend of AIDS/HIV incidence in Chongqing and Shenzhen, China from 2005–2015 based on Age-Period-Cohort model
description	This paper elucidates that the AIDS/HIV incidence rate differences exist among different population and regions, especially among the old and college students. Due to the effect of age, the AIDS incidence peak in males aged 20–35 years and 50 years old both in Chongqing and Shenzhen, and the incidence rate and increasing spread in males was higher than that of females under period effect. In the local population in Chongqing and Shenzhen, the incidence rate of males in over 40, below and in the whole age groups are predicted to increase sharply in the future six years, while in females, the incidence rates among over 40-year-old and the whole age groups were predicted to increase as well. The incidence rate among homosexually transmitted patients reaches the peak in the 20–35, the incidence rate of patients transmitted through heterosexual reaches the peak around 50-year-old. Under the effect of period, AIDS/HIV incidence rate of patients transmitted through sexual routes showed an upward trend both in Chongqing and Shenzhen. The incidence rate of patients aged between 41 and 70 years old presents with an upward trend in the future six years. The results show great differences exist in the AIDS/HIV incidence between males and females, therefore it is necessary to take specific measures respectively.
format	article
author	Ying Liu Weidong Ji Yi Yin Zhengrong Yang Shu Yang Yongli Cai Yongli Cai Kai Wang Zhihang Peng Daihai He Weiming Wang
author_facet	Ying Liu Weidong Ji Yi Yin Zhengrong Yang Shu Yang Yongli Cai Yongli Cai Kai Wang Zhihang Peng Daihai He Weiming Wang
author_sort	Ying Liu
title	An analysis on the trend of AIDS/HIV incidence in Chongqing and Shenzhen, China from 2005–2015 based on Age-Period-Cohort model
title_short	An analysis on the trend of AIDS/HIV incidence in Chongqing and Shenzhen, China from 2005–2015 based on Age-Period-Cohort model
title_full	An analysis on the trend of AIDS/HIV incidence in Chongqing and Shenzhen, China from 2005–2015 based on Age-Period-Cohort model
title_fullStr	An analysis on the trend of AIDS/HIV incidence in Chongqing and Shenzhen, China from 2005–2015 based on Age-Period-Cohort model
title_full_unstemmed	An analysis on the trend of AIDS/HIV incidence in Chongqing and Shenzhen, China from 2005–2015 based on Age-Period-Cohort model
title_sort	analysis on the trend of aids/hiv incidence in chongqing and shenzhen, china from 2005–2015 based on age-period-cohort model
publisher	AIMS Press
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/616cd571d81e4ef597f50423489fc87e
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An analysis on the trend of AIDS/HIV incidence in Chongqing and Shenzhen, China from 2005–2015 based on Age-Period-Cohort model

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