Comparison of two simulators for individual based models in HIV epidemiology in a population with HSV 2 in Yaoundé (Cameroon)

Abstract Model comparisons have been widely used to guide intervention strategies to control infectious diseases. Agreement between different models is crucial for providing robust evidence for policy-makers because differences in model properties can influence their predictions. In this study, we c...

Descripción completa

Guardado en:

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales:	Diana M. Hendrickx, João Dinis Sousa, Pieter J. K. Libin, Wim Delva, Jori Liesenborgs, Niel Hens, Viktor Müller, Anne-Mieke Vandamme
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/61f972bcd4b54367a60435f4003c554f
Etiquetas:	Agregar Etiqueta Sin Etiquetas, Sea el primero en etiquetar este registro!

id	oai:doaj.org-article:61f972bcd4b54367a60435f4003c554f
record_format	dspace
spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:61f972bcd4b54367a60435f4003c554f2021-12-02T17:03:50ZComparison of two simulators for individual based models in HIV epidemiology in a population with HSV 2 in Yaoundé (Cameroon)10.1038/s41598-021-94289-z2045-2322https://doaj.org/article/61f972bcd4b54367a60435f4003c554f2021-07-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-94289-zhttps://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Model comparisons have been widely used to guide intervention strategies to control infectious diseases. Agreement between different models is crucial for providing robust evidence for policy-makers because differences in model properties can influence their predictions. In this study, we compared models implemented by two individual-based model simulators for HIV epidemiology in a heterosexual population with Herpes simplex virus type-2 (HSV-2). For each model simulator, we constructed four models, starting from a simplified basic model and stepwise including more model complexity. For the resulting eight models, the predictions of the impact of behavioural interventions on the HIV epidemic in Yaoundé-Cameroon were compared. The results show that differences in model assumptions and model complexity can influence the size of the predicted impact of the intervention, as well as the predicted qualitative behaviour of the HIV epidemic after the intervention. These differences in predictions of an intervention were also observed for two models that agreed in their predictions of the HIV epidemic in the absence of that intervention. Without additional data, it is impossible to determine which of these two models is the most reliable. These findings highlight the importance of making more data available for the calibration and validation of epidemiological models.Diana M. HendrickxJoão Dinis SousaPieter J. K. LibinWim DelvaJori LiesenborgsNiel HensViktor MüllerAnne-Mieke VandammeNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-13 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Diana M. Hendrickx João Dinis Sousa Pieter J. K. Libin Wim Delva Jori Liesenborgs Niel Hens Viktor Müller Anne-Mieke Vandamme Comparison of two simulators for individual based models in HIV epidemiology in a population with HSV 2 in Yaoundé (Cameroon)
description	Abstract Model comparisons have been widely used to guide intervention strategies to control infectious diseases. Agreement between different models is crucial for providing robust evidence for policy-makers because differences in model properties can influence their predictions. In this study, we compared models implemented by two individual-based model simulators for HIV epidemiology in a heterosexual population with Herpes simplex virus type-2 (HSV-2). For each model simulator, we constructed four models, starting from a simplified basic model and stepwise including more model complexity. For the resulting eight models, the predictions of the impact of behavioural interventions on the HIV epidemic in Yaoundé-Cameroon were compared. The results show that differences in model assumptions and model complexity can influence the size of the predicted impact of the intervention, as well as the predicted qualitative behaviour of the HIV epidemic after the intervention. These differences in predictions of an intervention were also observed for two models that agreed in their predictions of the HIV epidemic in the absence of that intervention. Without additional data, it is impossible to determine which of these two models is the most reliable. These findings highlight the importance of making more data available for the calibration and validation of epidemiological models.
format	article
author	Diana M. Hendrickx João Dinis Sousa Pieter J. K. Libin Wim Delva Jori Liesenborgs Niel Hens Viktor Müller Anne-Mieke Vandamme
author_facet	Diana M. Hendrickx João Dinis Sousa Pieter J. K. Libin Wim Delva Jori Liesenborgs Niel Hens Viktor Müller Anne-Mieke Vandamme
author_sort	Diana M. Hendrickx
title	Comparison of two simulators for individual based models in HIV epidemiology in a population with HSV 2 in Yaoundé (Cameroon)
title_short	Comparison of two simulators for individual based models in HIV epidemiology in a population with HSV 2 in Yaoundé (Cameroon)
title_full	Comparison of two simulators for individual based models in HIV epidemiology in a population with HSV 2 in Yaoundé (Cameroon)
title_fullStr	Comparison of two simulators for individual based models in HIV epidemiology in a population with HSV 2 in Yaoundé (Cameroon)
title_full_unstemmed	Comparison of two simulators for individual based models in HIV epidemiology in a population with HSV 2 in Yaoundé (Cameroon)
title_sort	comparison of two simulators for individual based models in hiv epidemiology in a population with hsv 2 in yaoundé (cameroon)
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/61f972bcd4b54367a60435f4003c554f
work_keys_str_mv	AT dianamhendrickx comparisonoftwosimulatorsforindividualbasedmodelsinhivepidemiologyinapopulationwithhsv2inyaoundecameroon AT joaodinissousa comparisonoftwosimulatorsforindividualbasedmodelsinhivepidemiologyinapopulationwithhsv2inyaoundecameroon AT pieterjklibin comparisonoftwosimulatorsforindividualbasedmodelsinhivepidemiologyinapopulationwithhsv2inyaoundecameroon AT wimdelva comparisonoftwosimulatorsforindividualbasedmodelsinhivepidemiologyinapopulationwithhsv2inyaoundecameroon AT joriliesenborgs comparisonoftwosimulatorsforindividualbasedmodelsinhivepidemiologyinapopulationwithhsv2inyaoundecameroon AT nielhens comparisonoftwosimulatorsforindividualbasedmodelsinhivepidemiologyinapopulationwithhsv2inyaoundecameroon AT viktormuller comparisonoftwosimulatorsforindividualbasedmodelsinhivepidemiologyinapopulationwithhsv2inyaoundecameroon AT annemiekevandamme comparisonoftwosimulatorsforindividualbasedmodelsinhivepidemiologyinapopulationwithhsv2inyaoundecameroon
_version_	1718381851794472960

Comparison of two simulators for individual based models in HIV epidemiology in a population with HSV 2 in Yaoundé (Cameroon)

Ejemplares similares