Failure and Success in Political Polling and Election Forecasting

The recent successes and failures of political polling invite several questions: Why did the polls get it wrong in some high-profile races? Conversely, how is it that polls can perform so well, even given all the evident challenges of conducting and interpreting them?

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Autor principal: Andrew Gelman
Formato: article
Lenguaje:EN
Publicado: Taylor & Francis Group 2021
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Acceso en línea:https://doaj.org/article/629cf11b64674a6d837eddf277f14408
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Sumario:The recent successes and failures of political polling invite several questions: Why did the polls get it wrong in some high-profile races? Conversely, how is it that polls can perform so well, even given all the evident challenges of conducting and interpreting them?