Failure and Success in Political Polling and Election Forecasting

The recent successes and failures of political polling invite several questions: Why did the polls get it wrong in some high-profile races? Conversely, how is it that polls can perform so well, even given all the evident challenges of conducting and interpreting them?

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Autor principal:	Andrew Gelman
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Taylor & Francis Group 2021
Materias:	polling political science public opinion Political institutions and public administration (General) JF20-2112 Probabilities. Mathematical statistics QA273-280
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/629cf11b64674a6d837eddf277f14408
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:629cf11b64674a6d837eddf277f144082021-11-26T11:19:50ZFailure and Success in Political Polling and Election Forecasting2330-443X10.1080/2330443X.2021.1971126https://doaj.org/article/629cf11b64674a6d837eddf277f144082021-01-01T00:00:00Zhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1080/2330443X.2021.1971126https://doaj.org/toc/2330-443XThe recent successes and failures of political polling invite several questions: Why did the polls get it wrong in some high-profile races? Conversely, how is it that polls can perform so well, even given all the evident challenges of conducting and interpreting them?Andrew GelmanTaylor & Francis Grouparticlepollingpolitical sciencepublic opinionPolitical institutions and public administration (General)JF20-2112Probabilities. Mathematical statisticsQA273-280ENStatistics and Public Policy, Vol 8, Iss 1, Pp 67-72 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	polling political science public opinion Political institutions and public administration (General) JF20-2112 Probabilities. Mathematical statistics QA273-280
spellingShingle	polling political science public opinion Political institutions and public administration (General) JF20-2112 Probabilities. Mathematical statistics QA273-280 Andrew Gelman Failure and Success in Political Polling and Election Forecasting
description	The recent successes and failures of political polling invite several questions: Why did the polls get it wrong in some high-profile races? Conversely, how is it that polls can perform so well, even given all the evident challenges of conducting and interpreting them?
format	article
author	Andrew Gelman
author_facet	Andrew Gelman
author_sort	Andrew Gelman
title	Failure and Success in Political Polling and Election Forecasting
title_short	Failure and Success in Political Polling and Election Forecasting
title_full	Failure and Success in Political Polling and Election Forecasting
title_fullStr	Failure and Success in Political Polling and Election Forecasting
title_full_unstemmed	Failure and Success in Political Polling and Election Forecasting
title_sort	failure and success in political polling and election forecasting
publisher	Taylor & Francis Group
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/629cf11b64674a6d837eddf277f14408
work_keys_str_mv	AT andrewgelman failureandsuccessinpoliticalpollingandelectionforecasting
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Failure and Success in Political Polling and Election Forecasting

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