RESTRICTIONS OF MODELS OF GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM IN FORECASTING THE DYNAMICS OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC SYSTEMS
The dynamics of forecasts of dynamics and socio-economic systems based on general equilibrium. The author considers various variations of these models, opportunities and critical points identified for their use. The article proposes to pay attention to a reasonable approach when developing forecasts...
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| Formato: | article |
| Lenguaje: | EN RU |
| Publicado: |
Science and Innovation Center Publishing House
2020
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| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | https://doaj.org/article/62df2ced03a34917a0c733e272a55114 |
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| Sumario: | The dynamics of forecasts of dynamics and socio-economic systems based on general equilibrium. The author considers various variations of these models, opportunities and critical points identified for their use. The article proposes to pay attention to a reasonable approach when developing forecasts in relation to the socio-economic environment in order to bring the predicted results closer to the real economy and to study the influence of deeper micro-level processes on macro-level indicators.
Purpose – identify the limitations of various kinds of models based on “input-output” tables when forecasting the dynamics of socio-economic systems.
Methodology: the work is based on the methods of comparative analysis of forecasting methodologies based on various variations of the general equilibrium models.
Results: The obtained results represent the theoretical basis for using this type of analysis in relation to other forecasting methods.
Practical implications: The results obtained in the article are applicable to the use of forecasts to identify changes in socio-economic systems. |
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