A copula-based drought assessment framework considering global simulation models

Study region: São Paulo state – Brazil. Study focus: Compound events, such as droughts and heat waves, may have severe impacts on human activities. Traditionally, they are characterized considering a univariate perspective. However, this approach may not be the most adequate to characterize such haz...

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Autores principales:	André S. Ballarin, Gustavo L. Barros, Manoel C.M. Cabrera, Edson C. Wendland
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Elsevier 2021
Materias:	Meteorological droughts Multivariate frequency analysis Global warming Compound extreme events. Physical geography GB3-5030 Geology QE1-996.5
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/631baabf08004ce8a31d623942131d57
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:631baabf08004ce8a31d623942131d572021-11-24T04:31:15ZA copula-based drought assessment framework considering global simulation models2214-581810.1016/j.ejrh.2021.100970https://doaj.org/article/631baabf08004ce8a31d623942131d572021-12-01T00:00:00Zhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581821001993https://doaj.org/toc/2214-5818Study region: São Paulo state – Brazil. Study focus: Compound events, such as droughts and heat waves, may have severe impacts on human activities. Traditionally, they are characterized considering a univariate perspective. However, this approach may not be the most adequate to characterize such hazards as they often result from a combination of variables interacting in space and time. Alternatively, several studies adopt the multivariate frequency analysis as it allows the consideration of concurrent drivers and their dependencies. Nevertheless, few of them evaluated this methodology in a climate change context. In view of this, this study aims to compare the uni and multivariate approaches to characterize extreme drought events considering both historical and future scenarios, using the severe water crisis experienced in the southeast region of Brazil in 2014–2015 as a study case. New hydrological insights for the region: The univariate approach can substantially underestimate the risk associated with extreme events. For future scenarios, differences between the two methodologies reached 90% of the estimated return period. Significant increasing trends were found only for temperature. Both approaches indicated that drought events will be more common and intense in the future. However, the univariate framework may misspecificate the associated risks, as it not account for the expected warming condition that may trigger or exacerbate extreme drought events.André S. BallarinGustavo L. BarrosManoel C.M. CabreraEdson C. WendlandElsevierarticleMeteorological droughtsMultivariate frequency analysisGlobal warmingCompound extreme events.Physical geographyGB3-5030GeologyQE1-996.5ENJournal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, Vol 38, Iss , Pp 100970- (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Meteorological droughts Multivariate frequency analysis Global warming Compound extreme events. Physical geography GB3-5030 Geology QE1-996.5
spellingShingle	Meteorological droughts Multivariate frequency analysis Global warming Compound extreme events. Physical geography GB3-5030 Geology QE1-996.5 André S. Ballarin Gustavo L. Barros Manoel C.M. Cabrera Edson C. Wendland A copula-based drought assessment framework considering global simulation models
description	Study region: São Paulo state – Brazil. Study focus: Compound events, such as droughts and heat waves, may have severe impacts on human activities. Traditionally, they are characterized considering a univariate perspective. However, this approach may not be the most adequate to characterize such hazards as they often result from a combination of variables interacting in space and time. Alternatively, several studies adopt the multivariate frequency analysis as it allows the consideration of concurrent drivers and their dependencies. Nevertheless, few of them evaluated this methodology in a climate change context. In view of this, this study aims to compare the uni and multivariate approaches to characterize extreme drought events considering both historical and future scenarios, using the severe water crisis experienced in the southeast region of Brazil in 2014–2015 as a study case. New hydrological insights for the region: The univariate approach can substantially underestimate the risk associated with extreme events. For future scenarios, differences between the two methodologies reached 90% of the estimated return period. Significant increasing trends were found only for temperature. Both approaches indicated that drought events will be more common and intense in the future. However, the univariate framework may misspecificate the associated risks, as it not account for the expected warming condition that may trigger or exacerbate extreme drought events.
format	article
author	André S. Ballarin Gustavo L. Barros Manoel C.M. Cabrera Edson C. Wendland
author_facet	André S. Ballarin Gustavo L. Barros Manoel C.M. Cabrera Edson C. Wendland
author_sort	André S. Ballarin
title	A copula-based drought assessment framework considering global simulation models
title_short	A copula-based drought assessment framework considering global simulation models
title_full	A copula-based drought assessment framework considering global simulation models
title_fullStr	A copula-based drought assessment framework considering global simulation models
title_full_unstemmed	A copula-based drought assessment framework considering global simulation models
title_sort	copula-based drought assessment framework considering global simulation models
publisher	Elsevier
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/631baabf08004ce8a31d623942131d57
work_keys_str_mv	AT andresballarin acopulabaseddroughtassessmentframeworkconsideringglobalsimulationmodels AT gustavolbarros acopulabaseddroughtassessmentframeworkconsideringglobalsimulationmodels AT manoelcmcabrera acopulabaseddroughtassessmentframeworkconsideringglobalsimulationmodels AT edsoncwendland acopulabaseddroughtassessmentframeworkconsideringglobalsimulationmodels AT andresballarin copulabaseddroughtassessmentframeworkconsideringglobalsimulationmodels AT gustavolbarros copulabaseddroughtassessmentframeworkconsideringglobalsimulationmodels AT manoelcmcabrera copulabaseddroughtassessmentframeworkconsideringglobalsimulationmodels AT edsoncwendland copulabaseddroughtassessmentframeworkconsideringglobalsimulationmodels
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A copula-based drought assessment framework considering global simulation models

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