A Continental-Scale Connectivity Analysis to Predict Current and Future Colonization Trends of Biofuel Plant’s Pests for Sub-Saharan African Countries

Biofuel production in Sub-Saharan Africa is an important part of local low-income countries. Among many plant species, <i>Jatropha curcas</i> gained popularity in this area, as it can be grown even where crops of agricultural interest cannot. A natural African pest of <i>J. curcas&...

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Autores principales:	Mattia Iannella, Walter De Simone, Francesco Cerasoli, Paola D’Alessandro, Maurizio Biondi
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	MDPI AG 2021
Materias:	biofuels <i>Jatropha curcas</i> <i>Aphthona cookei</i> species complex landscape connectivity Sub-Saharan Africa agricultural economics Agriculture S
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/6331e166ee3e4d38bb1ea3d7420a3fa8
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:6331e166ee3e4d38bb1ea3d7420a3fa82021-11-25T18:10:19ZA Continental-Scale Connectivity Analysis to Predict Current and Future Colonization Trends of Biofuel Plant’s Pests for Sub-Saharan African Countries10.3390/land101112762073-445Xhttps://doaj.org/article/6331e166ee3e4d38bb1ea3d7420a3fa82021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/10/11/1276https://doaj.org/toc/2073-445XBiofuel production in Sub-Saharan Africa is an important part of local low-income countries. Among many plant species, <i>Jatropha curcas</i> gained popularity in this area, as it can be grown even where crops of agricultural interest cannot. A natural African pest of <i>J. curcas</i> is the <i>Aphthona cookei</i> species group, for which future climatic suitability is predicted to favor areas of co-occurrence. In this research, we identify the possible climatic corridors in which the colonization of <i>J. curcas</i> crops may occur through a circuit theory-based landscape connectivity software at a country scale. Additionally, we use the standardized connectivity change index to predict possible variations in future scenarios. Starting from ecological niche models calibrated on current and 2050 conditions (two different RCP scenarios), we found several countries currently showing high connectivity. Ghana, Zambia and Ivory Coast host both high connectivity and a high number of <i>J. curcas</i> cultivations, which is also predicted to increase in the future. On the other side, Burundi and Rwanda reported a future increase of connectivity, possibly acting as “connectivity bridges” among neighboring countries. Considering the economic relevance of the topic analyzed, our spatially explicit predictions can support stakeholders and policymakers at a country scale in informed territorial management.Mattia IannellaWalter De SimoneFrancesco CerasoliPaola D’AlessandroMaurizio BiondiMDPI AGarticlebiofuels<i>Jatropha curcas</i><i>Aphthona cookei</i> species complexlandscape connectivitySub-Saharan Africaagricultural economicsAgricultureSENLand, Vol 10, Iss 1276, p 1276 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	biofuels <i>Jatropha curcas</i> <i>Aphthona cookei</i> species complex landscape connectivity Sub-Saharan Africa agricultural economics Agriculture S
spellingShingle	biofuels <i>Jatropha curcas</i> <i>Aphthona cookei</i> species complex landscape connectivity Sub-Saharan Africa agricultural economics Agriculture S Mattia Iannella Walter De Simone Francesco Cerasoli Paola D’Alessandro Maurizio Biondi A Continental-Scale Connectivity Analysis to Predict Current and Future Colonization Trends of Biofuel Plant’s Pests for Sub-Saharan African Countries
description	Biofuel production in Sub-Saharan Africa is an important part of local low-income countries. Among many plant species, <i>Jatropha curcas</i> gained popularity in this area, as it can be grown even where crops of agricultural interest cannot. A natural African pest of <i>J. curcas</i> is the <i>Aphthona cookei</i> species group, for which future climatic suitability is predicted to favor areas of co-occurrence. In this research, we identify the possible climatic corridors in which the colonization of <i>J. curcas</i> crops may occur through a circuit theory-based landscape connectivity software at a country scale. Additionally, we use the standardized connectivity change index to predict possible variations in future scenarios. Starting from ecological niche models calibrated on current and 2050 conditions (two different RCP scenarios), we found several countries currently showing high connectivity. Ghana, Zambia and Ivory Coast host both high connectivity and a high number of <i>J. curcas</i> cultivations, which is also predicted to increase in the future. On the other side, Burundi and Rwanda reported a future increase of connectivity, possibly acting as “connectivity bridges” among neighboring countries. Considering the economic relevance of the topic analyzed, our spatially explicit predictions can support stakeholders and policymakers at a country scale in informed territorial management.
format	article
author	Mattia Iannella Walter De Simone Francesco Cerasoli Paola D’Alessandro Maurizio Biondi
author_facet	Mattia Iannella Walter De Simone Francesco Cerasoli Paola D’Alessandro Maurizio Biondi
author_sort	Mattia Iannella
title	A Continental-Scale Connectivity Analysis to Predict Current and Future Colonization Trends of Biofuel Plant’s Pests for Sub-Saharan African Countries
title_short	A Continental-Scale Connectivity Analysis to Predict Current and Future Colonization Trends of Biofuel Plant’s Pests for Sub-Saharan African Countries
title_full	A Continental-Scale Connectivity Analysis to Predict Current and Future Colonization Trends of Biofuel Plant’s Pests for Sub-Saharan African Countries
title_fullStr	A Continental-Scale Connectivity Analysis to Predict Current and Future Colonization Trends of Biofuel Plant’s Pests for Sub-Saharan African Countries
title_full_unstemmed	A Continental-Scale Connectivity Analysis to Predict Current and Future Colonization Trends of Biofuel Plant’s Pests for Sub-Saharan African Countries
title_sort	continental-scale connectivity analysis to predict current and future colonization trends of biofuel plant’s pests for sub-saharan african countries
publisher	MDPI AG
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/6331e166ee3e4d38bb1ea3d7420a3fa8
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A Continental-Scale Connectivity Analysis to Predict Current and Future Colonization Trends of Biofuel Plant’s Pests for Sub-Saharan African Countries

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