Modelling the effects of population structure on childhood disease: the case of varicella.

Realistic, individual-based models based on detailed census data are increasingly used to study disease transmission. Whether the rich structure of such models improves predictions is debated. This is studied here for the spread of varicella, a childhood disease, in a realistic population of childre...

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Autores principales:	Romain Silhol, Pierre-Yves Boëlle
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2011
Materias:	Biology (General) QH301-705.5
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/63c2cdf9bae0489181f207346514fa2c
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:63c2cdf9bae0489181f207346514fa2c2021-11-18T05:50:24ZModelling the effects of population structure on childhood disease: the case of varicella.1553-734X1553-735810.1371/journal.pcbi.1002105https://doaj.org/article/63c2cdf9bae0489181f207346514fa2c2011-07-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/pmid/21814504/?tool=EBIhttps://doaj.org/toc/1553-734Xhttps://doaj.org/toc/1553-7358Realistic, individual-based models based on detailed census data are increasingly used to study disease transmission. Whether the rich structure of such models improves predictions is debated. This is studied here for the spread of varicella, a childhood disease, in a realistic population of children where infection occurs in the household, at school, or in the community at large. A methodology is first presented for simulating households with births and aging. Transmission probabilities were fitted for schools and community, which reproduced the overall cumulative incidence of varicella over the age range of 0-11 years old.Moreover, the individual-based model structure allowed us to reproduce several observed features of VZV epidemiology which were not included as hypotheses in the model: the age at varicella in first-born children was older than in other children, in accordance with observation; the same was true for children residing in rural areas. Model predicted incidence was comparable to observed incidence over time. These results show that models based on detailed census data on a small scale provide valid small scale prediction. By simulating several scenarios, we evaluate how varicella epidemiology is shaped by policies, such as age at first school enrolment, and school eviction. This supports the use of such models for investigating outcomes of public health measures.Romain SilholPierre-Yves BoëllePublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleBiology (General)QH301-705.5ENPLoS Computational Biology, Vol 7, Iss 7, p e1002105 (2011)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Biology (General) QH301-705.5
spellingShingle	Biology (General) QH301-705.5 Romain Silhol Pierre-Yves Boëlle Modelling the effects of population structure on childhood disease: the case of varicella.
description	Realistic, individual-based models based on detailed census data are increasingly used to study disease transmission. Whether the rich structure of such models improves predictions is debated. This is studied here for the spread of varicella, a childhood disease, in a realistic population of children where infection occurs in the household, at school, or in the community at large. A methodology is first presented for simulating households with births and aging. Transmission probabilities were fitted for schools and community, which reproduced the overall cumulative incidence of varicella over the age range of 0-11 years old.Moreover, the individual-based model structure allowed us to reproduce several observed features of VZV epidemiology which were not included as hypotheses in the model: the age at varicella in first-born children was older than in other children, in accordance with observation; the same was true for children residing in rural areas. Model predicted incidence was comparable to observed incidence over time. These results show that models based on detailed census data on a small scale provide valid small scale prediction. By simulating several scenarios, we evaluate how varicella epidemiology is shaped by policies, such as age at first school enrolment, and school eviction. This supports the use of such models for investigating outcomes of public health measures.
format	article
author	Romain Silhol Pierre-Yves Boëlle
author_facet	Romain Silhol Pierre-Yves Boëlle
author_sort	Romain Silhol
title	Modelling the effects of population structure on childhood disease: the case of varicella.
title_short	Modelling the effects of population structure on childhood disease: the case of varicella.
title_full	Modelling the effects of population structure on childhood disease: the case of varicella.
title_fullStr	Modelling the effects of population structure on childhood disease: the case of varicella.
title_full_unstemmed	Modelling the effects of population structure on childhood disease: the case of varicella.
title_sort	modelling the effects of population structure on childhood disease: the case of varicella.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2011
url	https://doaj.org/article/63c2cdf9bae0489181f207346514fa2c
work_keys_str_mv	AT romainsilhol modellingtheeffectsofpopulationstructureonchildhooddiseasethecaseofvaricella AT pierreyvesboelle modellingtheeffectsofpopulationstructureonchildhooddiseasethecaseofvaricella
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Modelling the effects of population structure on childhood disease: the case of varicella.

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