A simple mathematical model for the evaluation of the long first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil

Abstract We propose herein a mathematical model to predict the COVID-19 evolution and evaluate the impact of governmental decisions on this evolution, attempting to explain the long duration of the pandemic in the 26 Brazilian states and their capitals well as in the Federative Unit. The prediction...

Descripción completa

Guardado en:

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales:	Yuanji Tang, Tamires D. A. Serdan, Amanda L. Alecrim, Diego R. Souza, Bruno R. M. Nacano, Flaviano L. R. Silva, Eliane B. Silva, Sarah O. Poma, Matheus Gennari-Felipe, Patrícia N. Iser-Bem, Laureane N. Masi, Sherry Tang, Adriana C. Levada-Pires, Elaine Hatanaka, Maria F. Cury-Boaventura, Fernanda T. Borges, Tania C. Pithon-Curi, Marli C. Curpertino, Jarlei Fiamoncini, Carol Gois Leandro, Renata Gorjao, Rui Curi, Sandro Massao Hirabara
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/6489676b149943b9be31d453fad56b73
Etiquetas:	Agregar Etiqueta Sin Etiquetas, Sea el primero en etiquetar este registro!

id	oai:doaj.org-article:6489676b149943b9be31d453fad56b73
record_format	dspace
spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:6489676b149943b9be31d453fad56b732021-12-02T16:28:06ZA simple mathematical model for the evaluation of the long first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil10.1038/s41598-021-95815-92045-2322https://doaj.org/article/6489676b149943b9be31d453fad56b732021-08-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-95815-9https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract We propose herein a mathematical model to predict the COVID-19 evolution and evaluate the impact of governmental decisions on this evolution, attempting to explain the long duration of the pandemic in the 26 Brazilian states and their capitals well as in the Federative Unit. The prediction was performed based on the growth rate of new cases in a stable period, and the graphics plotted with the significant governmental decisions to evaluate the impact on the epidemic curve in each Brazilian state and city. Analysis of the predicted new cases was correlated with the total number of hospitalizations and deaths related to COVID-19. Because Brazil is a vast country, with high heterogeneity and complexity of the regional/local characteristics and governmental authorities among Brazilian states and cities, we individually predicted the epidemic curve based on a specific stable period with reduced or minimal interference on the growth rate of new cases. We found good accuracy, mainly in a short period (weeks). The most critical governmental decisions had a significant temporal impact on pandemic curve growth. A good relationship was found between the predicted number of new cases and the total number of inpatients and deaths related to COVID-19. In summary, we demonstrated that interventional and preventive measures directly and significantly impact the COVID-19 pandemic using a simple mathematical model. This model can easily be applied, helping, and directing health and governmental authorities to make further decisions to combat the pandemic.Yuanji TangTamires D. A. SerdanAmanda L. AlecrimDiego R. SouzaBruno R. M. NacanoFlaviano L. R. SilvaEliane B. SilvaSarah O. PomaMatheus Gennari-FelipePatrícia N. Iser-BemLaureane N. MasiSherry TangAdriana C. Levada-PiresElaine HatanakaMaria F. Cury-BoaventuraFernanda T. BorgesTania C. Pithon-CuriMarli C. CurpertinoJarlei FiamonciniCarol Gois LeandroRenata GorjaoRui CuriSandro Massao HirabaraNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-11 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Yuanji Tang Tamires D. A. Serdan Amanda L. Alecrim Diego R. Souza Bruno R. M. Nacano Flaviano L. R. Silva Eliane B. Silva Sarah O. Poma Matheus Gennari-Felipe Patrícia N. Iser-Bem Laureane N. Masi Sherry Tang Adriana C. Levada-Pires Elaine Hatanaka Maria F. Cury-Boaventura Fernanda T. Borges Tania C. Pithon-Curi Marli C. Curpertino Jarlei Fiamoncini Carol Gois Leandro Renata Gorjao Rui Curi Sandro Massao Hirabara A simple mathematical model for the evaluation of the long first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil
description	Abstract We propose herein a mathematical model to predict the COVID-19 evolution and evaluate the impact of governmental decisions on this evolution, attempting to explain the long duration of the pandemic in the 26 Brazilian states and their capitals well as in the Federative Unit. The prediction was performed based on the growth rate of new cases in a stable period, and the graphics plotted with the significant governmental decisions to evaluate the impact on the epidemic curve in each Brazilian state and city. Analysis of the predicted new cases was correlated with the total number of hospitalizations and deaths related to COVID-19. Because Brazil is a vast country, with high heterogeneity and complexity of the regional/local characteristics and governmental authorities among Brazilian states and cities, we individually predicted the epidemic curve based on a specific stable period with reduced or minimal interference on the growth rate of new cases. We found good accuracy, mainly in a short period (weeks). The most critical governmental decisions had a significant temporal impact on pandemic curve growth. A good relationship was found between the predicted number of new cases and the total number of inpatients and deaths related to COVID-19. In summary, we demonstrated that interventional and preventive measures directly and significantly impact the COVID-19 pandemic using a simple mathematical model. This model can easily be applied, helping, and directing health and governmental authorities to make further decisions to combat the pandemic.
format	article
author	Yuanji Tang Tamires D. A. Serdan Amanda L. Alecrim Diego R. Souza Bruno R. M. Nacano Flaviano L. R. Silva Eliane B. Silva Sarah O. Poma Matheus Gennari-Felipe Patrícia N. Iser-Bem Laureane N. Masi Sherry Tang Adriana C. Levada-Pires Elaine Hatanaka Maria F. Cury-Boaventura Fernanda T. Borges Tania C. Pithon-Curi Marli C. Curpertino Jarlei Fiamoncini Carol Gois Leandro Renata Gorjao Rui Curi Sandro Massao Hirabara
author_facet	Yuanji Tang Tamires D. A. Serdan Amanda L. Alecrim Diego R. Souza Bruno R. M. Nacano Flaviano L. R. Silva Eliane B. Silva Sarah O. Poma Matheus Gennari-Felipe Patrícia N. Iser-Bem Laureane N. Masi Sherry Tang Adriana C. Levada-Pires Elaine Hatanaka Maria F. Cury-Boaventura Fernanda T. Borges Tania C. Pithon-Curi Marli C. Curpertino Jarlei Fiamoncini Carol Gois Leandro Renata Gorjao Rui Curi Sandro Massao Hirabara
author_sort	Yuanji Tang
title	A simple mathematical model for the evaluation of the long first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil
title_short	A simple mathematical model for the evaluation of the long first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil
title_full	A simple mathematical model for the evaluation of the long first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil
title_fullStr	A simple mathematical model for the evaluation of the long first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil
title_full_unstemmed	A simple mathematical model for the evaluation of the long first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil
title_sort	simple mathematical model for the evaluation of the long first wave of the covid-19 pandemic in brazil
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/6489676b149943b9be31d453fad56b73
work_keys_str_mv	AT yuanjitang asimplemathematicalmodelfortheevaluationofthelongfirstwaveofthecovid19pandemicinbrazil AT tamiresdaserdan asimplemathematicalmodelfortheevaluationofthelongfirstwaveofthecovid19pandemicinbrazil AT amandalalecrim asimplemathematicalmodelfortheevaluationofthelongfirstwaveofthecovid19pandemicinbrazil AT diegorsouza asimplemathematicalmodelfortheevaluationofthelongfirstwaveofthecovid19pandemicinbrazil AT brunormnacano asimplemathematicalmodelfortheevaluationofthelongfirstwaveofthecovid19pandemicinbrazil AT flavianolrsilva asimplemathematicalmodelfortheevaluationofthelongfirstwaveofthecovid19pandemicinbrazil AT elianebsilva asimplemathematicalmodelfortheevaluationofthelongfirstwaveofthecovid19pandemicinbrazil AT sarahopoma asimplemathematicalmodelfortheevaluationofthelongfirstwaveofthecovid19pandemicinbrazil AT matheusgennarifelipe asimplemathematicalmodelfortheevaluationofthelongfirstwaveofthecovid19pandemicinbrazil AT patricianiserbem asimplemathematicalmodelfortheevaluationofthelongfirstwaveofthecovid19pandemicinbrazil AT laureanenmasi asimplemathematicalmodelfortheevaluationofthelongfirstwaveofthecovid19pandemicinbrazil AT sherrytang asimplemathematicalmodelfortheevaluationofthelongfirstwaveofthecovid19pandemicinbrazil AT adrianaclevadapires asimplemathematicalmodelfortheevaluationofthelongfirstwaveofthecovid19pandemicinbrazil AT elainehatanaka asimplemathematicalmodelfortheevaluationofthelongfirstwaveofthecovid19pandemicinbrazil AT mariafcuryboaventura asimplemathematicalmodelfortheevaluationofthelongfirstwaveofthecovid19pandemicinbrazil AT fernandatborges asimplemathematicalmodelfortheevaluationofthelongfirstwaveofthecovid19pandemicinbrazil AT taniacpithoncuri asimplemathematicalmodelfortheevaluationofthelongfirstwaveofthecovid19pandemicinbrazil AT marliccurpertino asimplemathematicalmodelfortheevaluationofthelongfirstwaveofthecovid19pandemicinbrazil AT jarleifiamoncini asimplemathematicalmodelfortheevaluationofthelongfirstwaveofthecovid19pandemicinbrazil AT carolgoisleandro asimplemathematicalmodelfortheevaluationofthelongfirstwaveofthecovid19pandemicinbrazil AT renatagorjao asimplemathematicalmodelfortheevaluationofthelongfirstwaveofthecovid19pandemicinbrazil AT ruicuri asimplemathematicalmodelfortheevaluationofthelongfirstwaveofthecovid19pandemicinbrazil AT sandromassaohirabara asimplemathematicalmodelfortheevaluationofthelongfirstwaveofthecovid19pandemicinbrazil AT yuanjitang simplemathematicalmodelfortheevaluationofthelongfirstwaveofthecovid19pandemicinbrazil AT tamiresdaserdan simplemathematicalmodelfortheevaluationofthelongfirstwaveofthecovid19pandemicinbrazil AT amandalalecrim simplemathematicalmodelfortheevaluationofthelongfirstwaveofthecovid19pandemicinbrazil AT diegorsouza simplemathematicalmodelfortheevaluationofthelongfirstwaveofthecovid19pandemicinbrazil AT brunormnacano simplemathematicalmodelfortheevaluationofthelongfirstwaveofthecovid19pandemicinbrazil AT flavianolrsilva simplemathematicalmodelfortheevaluationofthelongfirstwaveofthecovid19pandemicinbrazil AT elianebsilva simplemathematicalmodelfortheevaluationofthelongfirstwaveofthecovid19pandemicinbrazil AT sarahopoma simplemathematicalmodelfortheevaluationofthelongfirstwaveofthecovid19pandemicinbrazil AT matheusgennarifelipe simplemathematicalmodelfortheevaluationofthelongfirstwaveofthecovid19pandemicinbrazil AT patricianiserbem simplemathematicalmodelfortheevaluationofthelongfirstwaveofthecovid19pandemicinbrazil AT laureanenmasi simplemathematicalmodelfortheevaluationofthelongfirstwaveofthecovid19pandemicinbrazil AT sherrytang simplemathematicalmodelfortheevaluationofthelongfirstwaveofthecovid19pandemicinbrazil AT adrianaclevadapires simplemathematicalmodelfortheevaluationofthelongfirstwaveofthecovid19pandemicinbrazil AT elainehatanaka simplemathematicalmodelfortheevaluationofthelongfirstwaveofthecovid19pandemicinbrazil AT mariafcuryboaventura simplemathematicalmodelfortheevaluationofthelongfirstwaveofthecovid19pandemicinbrazil AT fernandatborges simplemathematicalmodelfortheevaluationofthelongfirstwaveofthecovid19pandemicinbrazil AT taniacpithoncuri simplemathematicalmodelfortheevaluationofthelongfirstwaveofthecovid19pandemicinbrazil AT marliccurpertino simplemathematicalmodelfortheevaluationofthelongfirstwaveofthecovid19pandemicinbrazil AT jarleifiamoncini simplemathematicalmodelfortheevaluationofthelongfirstwaveofthecovid19pandemicinbrazil AT carolgoisleandro simplemathematicalmodelfortheevaluationofthelongfirstwaveofthecovid19pandemicinbrazil AT renatagorjao simplemathematicalmodelfortheevaluationofthelongfirstwaveofthecovid19pandemicinbrazil AT ruicuri simplemathematicalmodelfortheevaluationofthelongfirstwaveofthecovid19pandemicinbrazil AT sandromassaohirabara simplemathematicalmodelfortheevaluationofthelongfirstwaveofthecovid19pandemicinbrazil
_version_	1718383933819715584

A simple mathematical model for the evaluation of the long first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil

Ejemplares similares