Modeling of COVID-19 Epidemic Growth Curve in Indonesia

Aim of this study is to make parametric modeling of the COVID-19 epidemic growth curve so that the maximum value and time at that point can be obtained from the cumulative cases of COVID-19. The data used in this study is the cumulative number of positive confirmed cases of COVID-19 from https://cov...

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Autores principales:	Muhammad Fajar, Wahyudi Wahyudi
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Department of Mathematics, UIN Sunan Ampel Surabaya 2021
Materias:	modeling logistic gompertz epidemic covid-19 Mathematics QA1-939
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/648a8e57c4134021bcfd189f63eb5922
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:648a8e57c4134021bcfd189f63eb59222021-12-02T18:47:43ZModeling of COVID-19 Epidemic Growth Curve in Indonesia2527-31592527-316710.15642/mantik.2021.7.1.67-73https://doaj.org/article/648a8e57c4134021bcfd189f63eb59222021-05-01T00:00:00Zhttp://jurnalsaintek.uinsby.ac.id/index.php/mantik/article/view/941https://doaj.org/toc/2527-3159https://doaj.org/toc/2527-3167Aim of this study is to make parametric modeling of the COVID-19 epidemic growth curve so that the maximum value and time at that point can be obtained from the cumulative cases of COVID-19. The data used in this study is the cumulative number of positive confirmed cases of COVID-19 from https://covid19.go.id/. The method used in this study is fitting data with the Logistic and Gompertz models. Result of this study are (1) the Logistic and Gompertz models are very fit in modeling the COVID-19 epidemic growth curve, indicated from the value of R2 (coefficient of determination) which reaches more than 99%; (2) From the Logistics model it is obtained that the estimated amount of the maximum cumulative case at the end of the COVID-19 epidemic is 7,714 positive confirmed cases, achieved in about 82 days (May 22, 2020) from Mar 2, 2020, when the first positive COVID-19 case was announced by the government; and (3) From the Gompertz model, it is obtained that the estimated maximum cumulative case at the end of the COVID-19 epidemic is 33,975 positive confirmed cases, achieved in about 152 days (Jul 30, 2020) from Mar 2, 2020. The results of this study can be used as input to the government to take steps in controlling the spread of COVID-19.Muhammad FajarWahyudi WahyudiDepartment of Mathematics, UIN Sunan Ampel Surabayaarticlemodelinglogisticgompertzepidemiccovid-19MathematicsQA1-939ENMantik: Jurnal Matematika, Vol 7, Iss 1, Pp 67-73 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	modeling logistic gompertz epidemic covid-19 Mathematics QA1-939
spellingShingle	modeling logistic gompertz epidemic covid-19 Mathematics QA1-939 Muhammad Fajar Wahyudi Wahyudi Modeling of COVID-19 Epidemic Growth Curve in Indonesia
description	Aim of this study is to make parametric modeling of the COVID-19 epidemic growth curve so that the maximum value and time at that point can be obtained from the cumulative cases of COVID-19. The data used in this study is the cumulative number of positive confirmed cases of COVID-19 from https://covid19.go.id/. The method used in this study is fitting data with the Logistic and Gompertz models. Result of this study are (1) the Logistic and Gompertz models are very fit in modeling the COVID-19 epidemic growth curve, indicated from the value of R2 (coefficient of determination) which reaches more than 99%; (2) From the Logistics model it is obtained that the estimated amount of the maximum cumulative case at the end of the COVID-19 epidemic is 7,714 positive confirmed cases, achieved in about 82 days (May 22, 2020) from Mar 2, 2020, when the first positive COVID-19 case was announced by the government; and (3) From the Gompertz model, it is obtained that the estimated maximum cumulative case at the end of the COVID-19 epidemic is 33,975 positive confirmed cases, achieved in about 152 days (Jul 30, 2020) from Mar 2, 2020. The results of this study can be used as input to the government to take steps in controlling the spread of COVID-19.
format	article
author	Muhammad Fajar Wahyudi Wahyudi
author_facet	Muhammad Fajar Wahyudi Wahyudi
author_sort	Muhammad Fajar
title	Modeling of COVID-19 Epidemic Growth Curve in Indonesia
title_short	Modeling of COVID-19 Epidemic Growth Curve in Indonesia
title_full	Modeling of COVID-19 Epidemic Growth Curve in Indonesia
title_fullStr	Modeling of COVID-19 Epidemic Growth Curve in Indonesia
title_full_unstemmed	Modeling of COVID-19 Epidemic Growth Curve in Indonesia
title_sort	modeling of covid-19 epidemic growth curve in indonesia
publisher	Department of Mathematics, UIN Sunan Ampel Surabaya
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/648a8e57c4134021bcfd189f63eb5922
work_keys_str_mv	AT muhammadfajar modelingofcovid19epidemicgrowthcurveinindonesia AT wahyudiwahyudi modelingofcovid19epidemicgrowthcurveinindonesia
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Modeling of COVID-19 Epidemic Growth Curve in Indonesia

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