Dynamic Forecasting Algorithm of Inbound Ice and Snow Tourism in China Based on Improved Deep Confidence Network
Ice and snow-based tourism is getting popular around the world and it is one of the major sources of revenue for a region with required facilities. According to a report by China Daily, China was expected to witness 230 million tourist visits in 2020-2021 with a total revenue generation surpassing 3...
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| Autores principales: | , , , , , , |
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| Formato: | article |
| Lenguaje: | EN |
| Publicado: |
Hindawi Limited
2021
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| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | https://doaj.org/article/652f4b356c5a45baaba05d082fb022a5 |
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| Sumario: | Ice and snow-based tourism is getting popular around the world and it is one of the major sources of revenue for a region with required facilities. According to a report by China Daily, China was expected to witness 230 million tourist visits in 2020-2021 with a total revenue generation surpassing 390 billion yuan. In order to promote the ice and snow tourism, proper arrangements such as accommodation, transport facility, and energy provision for heating and food need to be arranged as per the demand of the visitors at a certain period of time. A tourist prediction system can help in this regard for good estimation but considering the problems of traditional ice and snow tourism systems, specifically the prediction accuracy and long forecasting time, a dynamic forecasting algorithm for ice and snow inbound tourism based on an improved deep confidence network is proposed. The system analyzes the relationship between the demand for ice and snow inbound tourism and the level of national economic development, people’s living standards, demographic characteristics, traffic conditions, and tourism supply capacity. It then takes the influencing factors of ice and snow inbound tourism demand as sample data and arranges the sample data sequence. The inbound tourism demand dynamic prediction model uses an improved deep confidence network to learn and train the prediction model, input test data into the trained model, and output the dynamic prediction value of ice and snow inbound tourism demand in the output layer to obtain the prediction result. The simulation results show that the proposed algorithm has improved accuracy in predicting the demand of inbound tourism for ice and snow, whereas the forecasting time is reduced. |
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